Fantasy Football Preview: Baltimore Ravens 2010

In the 2008 NFL draft, the Ravens selected QB Joe Flacco with the 18th overall pick and followed that by selecting Ray Rice in the second round (55th overall).  Those two draft day steals figure to form the cornerstones of the Ravens offense for the next decade.

Rice has already emerged as a fantasy football stud and forces are conspiring to make Flacco, if not a very productive week-in-week-out fantasy football option, then at least to make the former Delaware Blue Hen fantasy relevant.  

In 2009, the Ravens offense ranked 13th in yardage, averaging 351 total yards and 24 points per game.  Ray Rice emerged as a top-flight fantasy football option, finishing his second NFL season with over 2,000 total yards and eight touchdowns.  

The mighty mite proved should be under consideration as the No. 1 overall pick in PPR leagues.   He tallied an astounding 78 catches for 700 yards last season.   At 5'8" and 205 lbs., he remains one of the more elusive running backs in the NFL, and his size, or lack thereof, did not negatively affect him as he managed  57 broken tackles, good for second in the league behind only Chris Johnson (61).  

The presence of goal line vulture Willis McGahee and his 14 total touchdowns is concerning, but we're expecting Rice to gain a greater portion of the red zone carries in his third season.  Rice is clearly one of the "big four" fantasy football running backs this season.  The group consists of four backs who are clearly set apart from the pack: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, and Maurice Jones-Drew.  An argument can be made for the Ravens runner to be anywhere from number one to number four.  

The passing attach, absent a true numer one WR, was less prolific than the rushing attack and finished last season ranked 18th in the NFL averaging 214 yards per game.  The presence of one of the leagues better defenses kept the Ravens out of many shootouts and allowed the offense to rely on the running game.  

In 2009, Flacco threw for 3613 yards, 21 TDs, and 12 INTs.  Flacco completed an impressive 63 percent of his passes.  The offseason addition of WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth will provide Joe Flacco with a full arsenal of weapons that has the third-year QB primed for a breakout season.  The trio of Boldin, Stallworth, and veteran Derrick Mason, along with Ray Rice will be a nightmare for opposing defenses.   A 4,000 yard season is not out of the question for Flacco in 2010.

In 2009, the Ravens defense ranked 3rd in the NFL allowing only 300 total yards and 16 pts per game.  In their first season without Rex Ryan, they still produced stats worthy of a Top-10 unit.  Baltimore's defenses compiled 32 sacks, 22 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles (10 recovered) and scored four touchdowns (three defensive).  

The main question mark is Ed Reed who battled injuries last season and might miss the start of the season following serious hip and shoulder surgery this offseason.  Most of the other key players including Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Fabian Washington are expected to return, and Baltimore added to their talent pool with the 2010 draft day selections of pass rusher Sergio Kindle and monster DT Terrence Cody.  Heading into 2010, the Ravens defensive unit should yet again be drafted among the top-five DEF/ST as they still have the talent and scheme in place to remain an elite fantasy unit.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN

Overvalued

RB Willis McGahee: (ADP of 132 / RB #48) 

The 28-year-old backup running back was a TD machine in 2009 (14 total TDs) much to the detriment of all Ray Rice owners. In 2010, I'm expecting the Ravens to utilize Rice more inside the red zone limiting the scoring potential of McGahee. His fantasy production is heavily reliant on touchdowns as McGahee only had four weeks over 50 yards. He'll still be one of the better reserve RBs to own on draft day, but I prefer the upside of three running backs with better receiving skills (Tim Hightower, Chester Taylor, and Darren Sproles) that have been drafted in the same tier.

Undervalued

QB Joe Flacco: (ADP of 84 / QB #12)

Entering his third NFL season, I'm expecting the Delaware alum to emerge as a top-10 fantasy QB by season's end.

In his first two seasons, Flacco has led the Ravens to the playoffs and played in an AFC Championship Game. Baltimore has remained a run-oriented offense, which has resulted in serviceable but not starter worthy numbers for Flacco as he's finished outside the top 15 fantasy QBs in both seasons.  In 2010, Flacco will finally be equipped with a stud receiver following the offseason addition of Anquan Boldin. The 29-year-old Boldin has topped the 1,000 yard mark in all but two of his seven seasons and has scored 24 TDs in his last 39 games. In addition, Donte Stallworth will likely serve as the #3 wideout with veteran Derrick Mason lining up opposite Boldin.

Ravens offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, led a prolific offense in San Diego and the Ravens pass attempts per game increased from 27 in 2008 to 32 in 2009.  All signs point to a breakout statistical season for the Ravens QB, but one caveat is the schedule strength is ranked as the most difficult in the NFL despite some favorable matchups in weeks 14-16. Regardless of the schedule, if you decide to wait on drafting a QB, Flacco will produce starter-worthy numbers that you can grab after the 7th round.

Unknown Commodity

WR Anquan Boldin: (ADP 31/ WR #13)

Boldin is a proven commodity, it's his situation that lends itself to a bit of concern among the fantasy football community.  In addition to having suffered multiple injuries throughout his career, Boldin is making the move from a prolific passing offense to a run-oriented scheme, and from a Hall of Fame QB to a third-year, small-school up-and-comer tossing him passes.  

Boldin seems well placed where he is being drafted.  At 13, he is right at the top of the number two WRs in most leagues.  Projections have Boldin in the high 60s to low 70s.  That feels like numbers Boldin will achieve easily.  You have no risk essentially.  But, he has big upside. 

The offense seems primed to shift not necessarily to a pass oriented offense but to one more to Cam Cameron's liking with more balance.  The emphasis placed on acquiring more skilled wide receivers, more over WRs with specific skill sets in Boldin to fill the middle of the field and get first downs and Stallworth to stretch the field, bodes well for the prospects of opening the passing game more.  It stands to reason that Boldin could haul in over 80 passes and approach double digit TDs.  He is a low risk/high reward prospect.