Division Breakdowns: Who To Nab, Who To Avoid?

Well, after a long hiatus from writing, I am finally getting back into the flow as the fantasy season is right around the corner.

This offseason was one of the more interesting in the history of the NFL with a lot of big names moving around. Most articles you see out there are “Top 10s” and “Players on the Rise” type of articles, which I love, but I wanted to look at things in a different light this year.

I am strong believer in that no matter how much of a football expert you can be that a certain element of fantasy is driven by luck. You could have the best squad on paper, but if they end up on the PUP list, well, you are fighting for 10th place. You also have those wonderful weeks where you are the second-highest scorer in your league only to be playing the team that scored the highest, instantly raising your blood pressure and frustration to amazing new levels.

With luck being a key element to any teams success, I do believe you have the ability to curb how much luck might play in your season by looking at factors outside of rush yards and TD projections.

Many times, fantasy greatness can be seen by looking at actual football data—go figure. Schedules, o-line rankings, formation and defensive scheme changes, personnel changes, and even where the team plays their home games can impact a players value in my opinion.

Now, before you break out a 400x400 excel file and start running programs, I urge you to consider things in a different manner. In this ongoing piece I am going to look at each division and some of the key elements above and highlight the players to analyze against your top 200 and perhaps put extra emphasis on.

So, here we go with my personal favorite of all divisions in football which is the mighty NFC East.

Washington Redskins

Holy Fumbles, Batman, the Skins once again move the earth with a wild offseason.

New GM, new head coach, new QB, a couple of geriatric RBs and even a few o-lineman (thank God Snyder gave up control). The Redskins really overhauled their offensive weapons in the offseason, which looks good on paper, but certainly has to prove itself on the field.

Will Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Devin Thomas, and Malcolm Kelly be able to step up and provide options outside of Santana Moss and Clinton Portis? The two most reliable options on this team will be Donovan McNabb and Chris Cooley, and those two, together, I expect to have a big year.

Top Tier: McNabb and Cooley

Middle Tier: Clinton Portis and Santana Moss

Lower Tier With Breakout Potential: Fred Davis and Devin Thomas

Stay Away From Them For Now: Larry “Over/Under on my 2010 knee injury is four games” Johnson, Willie “I had my 10 minutes of fame already” Parker, Malcolm “Sure to be a disappointment to the family” Kelly

Dallas Cowboys

My least favorite team in the world, except perhaps the Yankees, finally managed to get a playoff win last year, and to many people’s surprise, I was happy for them. It prevented me from having to hear about Romo’s non clutch-ness every five minutes on ESPN, Fox, NFL Network, and the Cooking Channel.

The Cowboys certainly have a ton of weapons in their arsenal, but all things begin and end with Tony Romo. Romo proved he can be a great QB without T.O. last year, and I only expect that trend to continue. There are quite a few players who are worth considering on this roster and a few breakout players to highlight in case you are in dynasty leagues.

Top Tier: Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Miles Austin

Middle Tier: Felix Jones, Dez Bryant (Rookie), Marion Barber

Lower Tier With Breakout Potential: Martellus Bennett, Tashard Choice

Stay Away From Them For Now: Roy “I wish I was in Detroit where I looked good in comparison” Williams, Patrick “I may never play again” Crayton

Philadelphia Eagles

It will be a year of change for Eagles fans, but one that is likely welcomed with open arms.

Long gone are McNabb and Westbrook, and stepping into the spotlight are Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy. The Eagles still need to find a secondary option beyond speedster DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin seems like he is ready to take that role. He showed flashes of being a big time player last year and at other times showed his rookie stripes.

Brent Celek will once again be highly coveted at the TE position, and Mike Bell is someone to keep on your radar who could end up being very valuable if (and when) LeSean goes down with injuries.

Philly’s defense is always strong and worth grabbing earlier than most.

Top Tier: DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek

Middle Tier: Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy

Lower Tier With Breakout Potential: Jeremy Maclin

Stay Away From Them For Now: Hank “Butterfingers” Basket and Riley “Big Miss” Cooper

New York Giants

Has a team ever gone from the top of the world to mediocrity is such a short span of time?

It seems like yesterday Plaxico was catching Eli’s game-winning throw, and today, well, let’s just say things have changed.

The Giants still present a formidable foe, but their players' appeal from a fantasy perspective has always been mild outside of the RB position. Ahmad Bradshaw proved last year he can be a beast, and with Brandon Jacobs looking to have a bounce-back year, I expect the two-headed monster to be very strong with both likely going for 1000-plus yards.

Eli has his moments where he looks like his older brother and others where he looks like his mother. Smith, Nicks, and Manningham make up and exciting young core of WRs, but I am not sold that any of them can be the big-time target that Plaxico once was.

Kevin Boss provides a solid target at TE, but this team's philosophy is game control, which slows the game down and reduces points nine times out of 10, which usually doesn’t equate to great fantasy stats.

So, be careful before your die-hard allegiance to the NYG lands you Steve Smith in the second round.

Top Tier: Brandon Jacobs

Middle Tier: Steve Smith, Ahmad Bradshaw, Eli Manning

Lower Tier With Breakout Potential: Hakeem Nicks and Kevin Boss

Stay Away From Them For Now: Andrew Brown and Mario Manningham

2010 will be an exciting year in this division with the traditional head-to-head rivalries, but each team will have to face the NFC South with Indy, Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee, along with Minnesota and Green Bay.

Some teams have more favorable home matchups in those games, and the time of year will be crucial as well. With all the great talent in this league, one thing that is odd is that there isn’t one player I would rank in my top 12, but a ton of talent that would likely fall in rounds 2-5.

So, keep an eye on the top tiers and don’t reach too far the middle and breakout potentials.

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