NFL Fantasy Football: Rookie Running Backs To Consider

Running backs are next in a continuing series looking at rookies to consider drafting at each position. As training camp proceeds, we’ll revisit the rookies and see who is drifting up in value and who is drifting down. As always, I welcome any and all feedback.

Let’s face it, running backs aren't what they used to be. The game has changed such that most teams use running back by committee. And, many teams have a big fat dude they bring in to take the TDs away from your stud what just snapped off a 47 jaunt and got shoe stringed at the 1-yard line (happened to me way too many times).

You now have to weigh whether you want the guy who gets the yards or gets the TDs. The player in the high percentage play is the guy who gets the yards. So we’ll look at rookies that have a high potential to get significant PT, based on their ability and their team’s needs.

Also, always keep in mind rookies tend to fumble more than seasoned backs, so you need to take these guy’s with a grain of salt if fumbles have a big negative subtract in your league.

Ryan Mathews, SD

This is my highest ranked rookie RB—by a lot.

Despite being a rookie, Mathews is in for a very strong season. Sproles is great coming in second—he has not been regularly successful as the primary man.

Mathews, at 6’-0”, 218 pounds, has the tools to be THE MAN. He’s in a great position to get a majority of carries, and even though his team passes frequently, it will still total a ton of yardage and TD opportunities.

Mathews DOES need to sign and be in camp on time, though—a key piece to picking him this early. He has tremendous ability and has a great opportunity to be a tremendous contributor in his first season.

I would consider Mathews as my No. 2 back, especially if most of the other guys in your draft have already picked up their second back and Mathews is still on the board.

Ben Tate, HOU

Perhaps I am overreacting because of how bad Steve Slaton was at fumbling last year. Or perhaps I have an unnatural man-love for all running backs from Auburn, otherwise known as Running Back U (Joe Cribbs, James Brooks, Rudi Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, Tommie Agee and Bo Jackson).

But, I think the Texans were making a statement to all their running backs when they selected Ben Tate in the second round with the 58th overall pick.

Tate has the size—5′ 11″, 215 pounds—and the speed— 4.45 40—to be a great back in the NFL. Tate could take over the starting job if Slaton struggles to stay on the field (and hold on to the damn ball). If this happens, you want Tate on your roster.

I would consider Tate as a reserve back. He has high potential and will get carries. But make sure your backfield is solid before picking him up.

Keep an eye on Slaton’s performance.if Tate is a free agent in your league—if Slaton gets off to a poor start, try to nab Tate before someone else does.

I think Kubiak has Slaton on a short string this season.

Montario Hardesty, CLE

WTF, you ask? I think this kid could be the second coming of Jamal Lewis (same alma mater, same number).

Look, this kid has the potential to be an every down back, but will almost certainly be the short yardage (i.e., TD) back. At 6’-0”, 225 pounds, he’s a great compliment to Jerome Harrison, the starter.

And frankly, I’m not on the Jerome Harrison bandwagon yet. He looked good late last year in relieving Jamal Lewis, but I am not convinced he can be a No. 1 guy. Hardesty has the tools to be a solid back in the NFL, but he may need a little time before he gets enough snaps to be worthy of a fantasy selection.

I would consider him as a mid to late round pick up in deep leagues who has the potential to be the starter before the end of the season and will get short yardage touches as well.

Jahvid Best, DET

If Kevin Smith’s torn ACL is not good come training camp, this could be a good pick up. Kevin Smith will be the man, if and when he is healthy, but Best will get touches.

Detroit’s offense is getting better with Highland Park’s own Matt Stafford at QB, so the Detroit RB position is becoming a better choice. But only take Best if it looks like Smith is going to be out for a while.

If you are in a keeper league, consider your last pick for Best as he has potential to be a great one for Detroit down the road.

Late round pick in deep leagues, unless he’s the starter, at best for Best (see what I did there).

C.J. Spiller, BUF

The Bills did not use the ninth overall pick in the draft on C.J. Spiller just to have him sitting on the sideline.

Spiller is not a workhorse, so the Bills will have to be creative in getting him touches in space. That will probably start in the return game, but he will certainly get a chance to show his stuff out of the backfield.

However, the Bills’ offensive line is not going to help Spiller turn into a between the tackles rusher and quarterback Trent Edwards will have to find Spiller out of the backfield.

In keeper leagues and leagues that count return yards, Spiller has some value, but otherwise stay out of the Buffalo backfield.

Free Agents to Watch

Jonathan Dwyer, PIT—With Big Ben out for the beginning of the season, Pitt will be a ground it out team. And, probably when Ben gets back as well since he’ll be rusty.

Rashard Mendenhall (damn you Jerry Jones, you moron, for passing on him) is the man at RB, but if he gets dinged up, look for Dwyer to get a lot of those yards.

Toby Gerhart, MIN—With Chester Taylor gone, Gerhart seems to have the backup spot to Peterson locked up.

If you take Peterson early on, you may want to consider Gerhart as insurance late in the draft.

Anthony Dixon, SF—The SEC’s leading rusher slipped to the sixth round thanks to a DUI charge and a poor forty time at the rookie combine. He should push Glen Coffee in camp and could wind up as the 49ers’ number two option at tailback. If so, keep an eye on him or pick him up if you took Gore early as insurance.

He is a big guy (6’-1”, 235) and Singletary may use him as a short yardage back to reduce the wear and tear on Gore.

From the FanTake blog: Spence Park Soapbox 

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