Two Key Indicators To Gauge The Lions 2010 Success

If you want to gauge the progress of the Lions this season (besides their win/loss record) you'll want to cut through all of the clutter and monitor only a few vital statistics. Pay close attention to the Leos point differential and opposing QB passer ratings (PR).

Last year the Lions averaged 16.4 points per game while allowing opposing teams to score an average of 30.8 points per game. This resulted in a -232 point differential.

The 12 teams that ended up under .500 last year had an average PD of -125.6. The five teams that ended up 8-8 had an average PD of -3.4. And the five teams that ended up 9-7 had an average PD of +77.8.

The point is that the true benefit of any improvement in rush pressure by the Lions completely revamped DL will show up in the defenses' positive contribution to the teams point differential.

This means that successful defensive pressure is best measured by fumble recoveries, interceptions, TDs scored by the defense, and opposing team punts---not by sacks, hits, hurries and batted passes (unless they result in an interception).

Defensive TD and change of possession stats (those not due to opposing offenses scoring field goals or TDs) are much more important than disruptive plays that leave the ball in the control of the opposing offense.

Also, during the 2009 season the Leos permitted opposing QBs to rack up an average PR of 107.0, a number that is higher than the average PR of the NFL's 20 all-time top QBs. The league average last year was closer to 85.

Consistent rush pressure, a hungry LB core and improved secondary should bring opposing QB PR a lot closer to the league average.

It's not unreasonable to expect the Lions much improved defense to subtract one opponent TD per game from last year's average, nor is it unreasonable to expect the much more talented offense to score one more TD per game this year.

The combined difference would result in the Lions scoring an average 23.4 pts/game while allowing 23.8 pts/game and would put the Lions in the range of a projected 8-8 season based on last years's NFL win-loss point differential statistics.

Adding a single TD per game on offense and subtracting a single TD per game on defense is the difference between a 2-14 record and an 8-8 record for the Lions.