AFC East 2010 Predictions: Brandon Marshall Lifts Miami To NFL's Elite

The acquisition of Brandon Marshall is going to push Miami over the hump of 2009’s 7-9 3^rd place AFC East finish and back to their 2008 division winning form, but only better.  Marshall makes Miami better in multiple aspects of the game.  There’s no question Marshall steps in immediately as Miami’s #1 option in the passing game.  He ranks among my top 3 receivers in the league and many could argue he is the most well rounded receiver in the NFL today.   

1.        Andre Johnson- Houston Texans

276 receptions 3,995 receiving yards 25 receiving TDs- last 3 seasons (41 games)

2.       Brandon Marshall- Miami Dolphins

307 receptions 3,710 receiving yards 23 receiving TDs-last 3 seasons (46 games)

3.       Larry Fitzgerald- Arizona Cardinals

293 receptions 3,932 receiving yards 35 receiving TDs- last 3 seasons (46 games)

The offensive play calling for the Dolphins is going to be significantly more diverse on all down & distances from all areas of the field.  Opposing defenses will have to loosen up on 1^st down in particular due to the constant threat of play action resulting more opportunities to run between the tackles against a 7 defenders in the “box” as opposed to 8 defenders. This is just the beginning of the trickledown effect that Marshall’s talents and production will have on improving Miami’s whole team.  

The running game will only get stronger with Marshall wearing a Dolphin uniform.  Miami already has a powerful and most importantly very effective inside running attack behind both 230 pound veteran Tailbacks Ronnie Brown (RFA) & Ricky Williams (both backs averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in 2009) and behemoth O- Tackles Jake Long (6-7 317lbs) & Vernon Carey (6-5 340lbs).  Standing 6-4 and weighing 230 pounds Marshall dwarfs most NFL cornerbacks.   Marshall is a first down, chains moving machine.   His size naturally allows him to shield defenders from the ball and he has an uncanny ability for a receiver to stiff arm defenders while running with the ball after the catch.   When matching Miami’s power running game with the 6-4 230 pound Marshall, the pairing will give Miami two exceptional Red Zone choices.    Miami Red Zone Offense should be virtually unstoppable in 2010.  While in the Red Zone Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning will be able to take a page out of the Colts playbook and send QB Chad Henne to the line of scrimmage with a running play and passing play.  Opposing defenses will have to commit to defending either the run or the pass, Henne will simply signal on the line to his offense which play they are going with by the defense’s “box” configuration or the secondary’s coverage look. 

3^rd year Quarterback Chad Henne will face less pressure when dropping back into play action and have more obvious pre-play reads  which will allow the QB to audible at the line of scrimmage more effectively.  The average cast of receivers and tight ends that Miami had in the 2009 will look like a solid group of role players.  3^rd year player from University of Hawaii Davon Bess will flourish in his role as Miami’s 2^nd receiving option.  Bess caught 76 balls in a run heavy, predictable offense averaging 10.0 yards per reception in 2009.  Look for Bess’s 2010 yards per reception to rise considerably.  Offensively  in 2010 Marshall’s talents should increase on Miami’s 2009 numbers in points per game, passing efficiency, and time of possession.

Perhaps Marshall’s greatest impact will be in the form of ball control allowing the Dolphin defense to come onto the field fresh and rested.  In addition to having an energized defense, Miami acquired Pro Bowl snubbed and underappreciated ILB Karlos Dansby and First Round Draft Pick from Penn State DT Jared Odrick in the offseason.  Both will fit in well in Miami’s hard nosed playing style and should stiffen up the run defense.  I look for Dansby to conduct business as usual and Odrick to step into a starting 3-4 end position immediately.  2^nd year DBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are budding stars, both are versatile players in their own right.  Davis is a muscular 5-11 203 pounds that supports the run well, has great quickness & speed, and a knack for finding the ball (Link shows Vontae Davis catching USC’s Joe McKnight from behind in 2008 Rose Bowl  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t-f-39A4fs  forward to 2:11).  He will match up well against the Patriots Wes Welker and the Jets Santonio Holmes.  Sean Smith is huge for a cornerback at 6-3 214 pounds with good top speed and great range to go up after the football at it’s highest point in the air.  Smith will naturally be assigned to cover bigger receivers Randy Moss of the Patriots and the Jets Braylon Edwards.   

*Notice in the midst of my analysis of the Dolphin Offense I never once mentioned the “Wildcat” formation that Miami has had much success with in the past.  This is because they will not need to use the “Wildcat” with the same frequency they used it before.  The “Wildcat” forces offenses to become one-dimensional and will severely limit Miami’s new threat of being unpredictable on 1^st and 2^nd downs.  Look for Miami to use the “Wildcat” significantly less in 2010 budgeting themselves to trick or “gadget” play situations and short yardage.*

2010 Predictions:

I rank the AFC East as the 2^nd toughest division in the NFL with 3 teams with .500 records or greater.

1^st Miami Dolphins…12-4

-Miami wins tie breaker over NYJ

2^nd New York Jets…12-4

-Talented team, but character issues always rear their ugly head.  Braylon Edwards is more concerned with his celebrity status then being the dominating receiver he could easily be.  Santonio Holmes 4 game suspension will prove to be the difference in losing the tie breaker and division crown to Miami.

3^rd New England Patriots…8-8

-Porous, young secondary and lack of a ball control run game on offense will result in the Pats missing playoffs.

4^th Buffalo Bills…2-14

-This looks like the worst team in football for 2010.  CJ Spiller will show explosiveness at times in both the run and passing game but it won’t be anything consistent enough to make a real difference in the “W” column.  Buffalo’s offense as a whole will look quite pitiful.  The Bills Secondary is the lone bright spot on the defense.