San Jose Sharks 2010-11 Roster Taking Shape

With recent re-signings of Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski, Scott Nichol, and Niclas Wallin, the San Jose Sharks now have 11 forwards, six defencemen, and one goalie with NHL experience under contract for next season (click here to see an evaluation of the Sharks 2010 draft).

With qualifying offers extended to defensemen Derek Joslin and forwards Devin Setoguchi and Steven Zalewski, they are nearing a complete roster. Not only can the Sharks match any offer another team makes and keep a player, but anyone looking to steal a restricted free agent away from San Jose loses draft picks.

Exactly what those picks are depends on the amount of money the new team offers. The numbers vary according to the salary cap, which has been expected to go up slightly this year.

However, last season, a player being paid less than about $3.2 million costs his new team only one second-round pick, while players being paid more than that cost multiple picks, including a first-rounder.

Thus, while qualifying offers are not guarantees the player will remain with the team, they do make keeping that player likely. This means there are now enough players to field a full team, plus two scratched players if the Sharks promote either Tyson Sexsmith or, more likely, Alex Stalock (who carried the load in Worcester) to be Thomas Greiss's backup.

There is no word on the amounts for the contracts of the three players, but Setoguchi is likely to be paid between $2.5 and $3 million next season, Derek Joslin is likely to be making between the veteran minimum of $600,000 and $750,000, and Zalewski surely will get no more than $600,000.

This would bring the Sharks' salary cap number to about $57 million, which is likely about $3 million short of where the cap will be for 2010-11. The lineup this represents would be as follows:

1. The same top two lines as last season, plus the same top pair. This represents arguably the game's best first line (although that was probably, at least statistically, the Sedin line last season) as well as a second line and first pair in the top 20 percent of the league. There is likely to be slight improvement in the second line but otherwise the rest of the top players will be equivalent to last season because most are at or near their peak.

2. A second pair of Niclas Wallin and Marc-Edouard Vlasic that should be almost as good as last season's (above average) second pair of Vlasic and Rob Blake.

Wallin is every bit the hitter and shot-blocker Blake was at the end of his career, and a bit more mobile; however, he is an offensive liability as opposed to the asset Blake was. While Vlasic is young, he seems to have already peaked and at best might improve as much as Wallin diminishes.

3. A third line of Couture, Nichol, and McGinn that would be a solid checking line with some scoring potential. The third pair of Huskins and Demers would provide a young talent that, while improving, might still be prone to mistakes and a veteran who rarely makes mistakes or plays. That would make them a third pair in the top half of the league.

Then we get into trouble. The goaltending would be very suspect, with a first year starter in Thomas Greiss who has not even played in 20 NHL games and a backup who has played in none.

Greiss has done enough to believe he is capable of being a decent, but not good, starting goaltender. But there is nothing to say he can carry the load for more than 60 or so games, leaving the Sharks to hope a good minor league goalie is at least adequate in the other 20-plus.

The fourth line would be Frazer McLaren, Torrey Mitchell, and Benn Ferriero, with McLaren and Ferriero having very little NHL experience. Behind them would be inexperienced Steven Zalewski at forward and Derek Joslin on the blue line.

Having a weak fourth line is not a big deal and would not stop the Sharks from rating as one of the best forward units in the game. The blue line would be mostly adequate, with a player for both offense and defense on all three pairs and one of those players capable on both ends for each of the first two... good enough to be above average.

But even with a capable scratched player available for both units, this would not be a good enough group of skaters to win as often as last season. With the growth and likely free agent acquisitions of the Los Angeles Kings as well as the Phoenix Coyotes likely repeating their unexpected 2009-10 success, even winning the division would be a challenge, much less earning the top seed.

In my next article, I will outline suggested moves within the $3 million cap room the Sharks have that could take them from contender to earn home ice advantage in the first round to contender to win the Cup (click here to read Sharks' play-by-play announcer Randy Hahn's take on the team's free agency situation).