Fantasy Football- Unconventional Draft Day Advice

Draft Day Jitters

Today's the day, big man. The day that you've been anticipating. The day that has been on your mind since the moment the Saints beat the Colts earlier this year. The day that you know you're gonna shine.

You will shine, of course—right? Heck, you better hope so.

Fantasy Football 2010, today is your live draft—you better bet your lucky stars things go as planned. (But honestly, do they ever?) Are you nervous? Boy, I would be too. Here are a few tips for draft day to help you build this year's perfect team.

The Late First Round Running Back — It's happened to all of us before. We enter the live draft room in shock to find out we've been placed in the No. 7 selection. Fantasy Football history tells us you MUST select a first round RB to even have a chance at winning the league, however the drop off from the top three RBs against the rest of the RB field is so great—what is a drafter to do? Are yearly busts like Steven Jackson or young players like Rashard Mendenhall really worth the risk so early?

Advice : While many preseason boards like to rank running backs based on projected stats, I've always been a fan of drafting based on past season ACTUAL stats. It baffles my mind that a RB like Ryan Grant with a total of 15 TDs and 1,200+ Yards in each of the past two seasons slips in the rankings just because he's on a pass heavy team. Johnathan Stewart, who has had 10 TDs in each of the past two seasons also falls because he shares carries with DeAngelo Williams . Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams , the ridiculously unstoppable duo changing the offensive game of football down in Miami, hardly get mentioned for whatever reason. Quality like this can be obtained in the second and third round, so don't feel pressured into picking up a running back you don't really want. If you have a late first round pick, don't be afraid to get crazy and draft a top tier WR like Andre Johnson or Randy Moss .  When drafting, it's always better to be safe than sorry—and I trust the actual stats of Reggie Wayne a lot more than I do the projected stats of Ryan Mathews .

The Importance of your QB — There is an abundance of quarterbacks available in this draft and you know it. So many, in fact, that every team should be able to pick up a quality starter. The second round is nearing its end and all of the QBs are still up on the draft board—should you pick up your QB in the third or wait a few more rounds while you fill up other RB and WR spots?

Advice : It's true that there are tons of quality QBs in this years draft, however you should only be interested in one from the top tier. This years top three? Brees, P. Manning, and Rodgers—in that order. As mentioned in the Running Back advice above, what you should be interested in drafting here is the 'better safe than sorry' QB. Aside from these elite three quarterbacks, everyone else should be cause for concern. While the Chargers are dropping key players left and right, Phillip Rivers may be losing his only quality receiver in restricted free agent Vincent Jackson . Tom Brady is trying to survive the mess currently brewing in New England , and he certainly didn't look the same last year after his injury from two seasons prior. Eli Manning is missing his top WR and is short several hundred passing yards. Kevin Kolb is an unknown. Jay Cutler is erratic. Rothlisberger and Favre—should we even begin with the uncertainties? Romo and Schuab are both coming off career best seasons in 2009, and may be the only other semi-sure picks, however their offensive weapons are limited and are both playing against tougher defensive teams this year. Having a sure-fire quality QB is important for your fantasy team, especially when it comes down to the wire and you're in the playoff hunt. If the feeling is right don't be afraid to pull the trigger on one of the draft's elite quarterbacks during the second or third round—snagging a top tier QB in the third round is a lot better then a mid-tier WR or low-tier RB.

The Tight Ends are falling — When it rains, it pours. As in live fantasy drafts, when tight ends start getting drafted it may seem like a battering ram knocking out one after another. So when you see Gates, Witten, Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark all slip off the board within the blink of an eye, should you rush to draft a TE with your next pick, too?

Advice : If it gets to the point where all of the top tier tight ends get drafted right before your eyes, the best advice may be to just suck it up—seriously. Be prepared, it happens in almost every live draft—once the first TE gets taken it sets off a domino effect that usually (and unfortunately) won't make it back to your draft spot. If you can get in and grab a top tier TE, go for it, because there are only a handful—aside from the aforementioned tight ends and after the aging Tony Gonzalez , the drop off in tight end fantasy points is insane. If you're entering the fourth round and you feel good about your first three picks, get your tight end on immediately. If you're finishing out the sixth round and you haven't picked up your tight end yet—put your head down and just keep it moving, brother. You're better off picking up a top kicker at this point then a bottom tier tight end. Remember, free agency is your friend during the regular season—and smart fantasy owners will find diamonds in the rough early on (did we already mention Vernon Davis?) Another option for serious fantasy smarties—picking up tight ends from free agency weekly based on who's hot and who's facing weak defensive match ups. Whatever you do, don't make the unneeded draft day pickup of Zach Miller while there are higher fantasy point players still on the board.

Don't forget last years under performers — It's the eighth round and you're looking ahead to pick up bench players, what options are available? If you're scrolling down the draft board, your eyes should be lighting up. You begin to notice there is a staggering number of quality players who had sub par seasons last year who, for one reason or another, have slipped past your fellow drafties radars. It appears many of 2009's top players have fallen pretty far—who is really worth picking up this year?

Advice : Sleepers? Oh yes, there are a plenty this year. The biggest may be LaDainian Tomlinson . His yardage may have slipped again last year, but that has been dropping ever since Norv Turner took over as head coach in San Diego. Considering he still piled up 12 TDs in a Chargers offensive that went very pass happy, and has now been traded to an outstanding New York Jets team with an untested second year RB in Shonn Greene —we believe the best may still be yet to come from LT. Other running backs that you should take a look at—Marion Barber from Dallas, only seven TDs last year but a beast when he gets the ball in the red zone . Brandon Jacobs of the Giants, Matt Forte of the Bears, Steve Slaton of the Texans—all outstanding running backs who had excellent 2008 seasons that for one reason or another slipped in 2009.

Wide receivers too, you ask? Does Terrell Owens ring a bell? One of the most outstanding and athletic players in the league had such a terrible season in 2009, but was it really his fault? A terrible offensive scheme in Buffalo? An underwhelming quarterback and that couldn't find Owens deep if his life depended on it? Owens isn't signed to a team now, but there is no question somebody will pick him up before the season starts. Owens is so much better than what we saw last year—and there is no question we'll see him in the end zone again this year. Other wide receivers that you should take a look at—Wes Welker from New England, number one in receptions and second only to Andre Johnson in receiving yards in 2009, and that is after missing two games due to injury. The only thing that is holding Welker back from fantasy football stardom is the fact he can't find the end zone (only four TDs in '09) Don't let this hold you back from drafting Welker if he is available late, his star will shine bright soon enough.