Fantasy Football: Checklist To Win Your League

When draft day comes around, I generally don't feel lucky if a particular player falls to me at my selection. I think of it as that player being lucky to be on my team. Have pride in your team. Fantasy Football is a wonderful world filled with non-consequence decision making that you can make you look like Einstein. Get lost in it. This is the kind of thinking you have to obtain to be a quality fantasy guru. You have to go in knowing that you'll make the right decision before that clock strikes zero.

To be able to have this mindset, you need to have a plan. Say a first round caliber player is still around at your second round selection. Do you take the first round talent over a player you like even more in the second round? Should you pass up on this free faller and stick to the guy you like? These are questions that are to be answered before the draft , not during. The fantasy players I draft all go through my own NFL combine, but instead of running 40 yard dashes and doing bench presses, they go through a 10 step system. The Rothstein System is geared to weeding out the land mines that run so rabid during a fantasy draft.

1) Does he have value?

Drafting based on value can be a tricky scheme. Players are so often hyped up by the media that they get drafted earlier than they should. Treat this just as you would in the stock market: A Buy Low/Sell High approach. Just because a player is ranked high according to some "experts" doesn't mean that he should be drafted early. You have to think why they are rated so high or low. Did he have a hot finish from the previous season? Was he injured? Did the players around him not give them the chance to produce on the field? Will he produce more with an improved team? All these questions can contribute to why a player is ranked so high or low.

Take Sidney Rice in 2008. Rice was both injured and played for a mediocre at best Tarvaris Jackson/Gus Ferotte combo at quarterback. In 2009, Brett Favre came in, and his traits flourished into a top five wide receiver. He had Value in the 2009 draft. If you bought him low , you had a No. 1 receiver at the price of where some kickers are drafted.

On the other hand, there is Brandon Jacobs. In 2008, he had his best year with double digit touchdowns. In the 2009 draft, his stock was soaring and he was drafted late 1st early second in most leagues. By mid season, the Giants struggled with injuries and he was being dropped to the free agent wire. His stock would have been a sell high approach. In 2010, he'll be right back down to a projection of round 6-7, where he has a buy low value. 

Players to buy low in 2010:

- Kevin Kolb, QB (Round 6-9)

- Matt Ryan, QB ( Round 6-8)

- Sidney Rice (with Favre), WR (2nd half of round 2-3)

- Pierre Garcon, WR ( Round 4-6)

- TJ Houshmandzadeh, WR Round (6-9)

- Pierre Thomas , RB (Round 3-5)

-Brandon Jacobs, RB (Round 6-8)

-Jeremichael Finley, TE (Round 7-9)

Players to sell high in 2010:

- Steven Jackson, RB (Round 1)

- Deangelo Williams, RB (Round 1)

- Jamaal Charles (Round 1-2)

- Larry Fitzgerald ( Round 2)

- Ryan Matthews (Round 2-3)

2) Injury Prone?

Injuries are part of football. No matter how talented a player is, every down there is a chance of losing him for the season. These are the breaks a owner goes through. However, some players have a injury history far longer than others.

Injury Prone Players (in order of projected draft position):

- Frank Gore, RB

- Andre Johnson, WR

- Matt Shaub, QB

- Ronnie Brown, RB

- Joseph Addai, RB

- Steve Smith, WR (Panthers)

- Reggie Bush, RB

- Brandon Jacobs, RB

3) Be wary of "potential."

A lot of players get drafted too high because of "potential". Potential is key in finding those late round gems, but usually doesn't pan out well with first or second rounders. Save the potential players for the later rounds.

Take the 2010 draft for instance. Jamal Charles will be projected by many as a first round talent. He did in fact have a great end half of 2009, but is the juice worth the squeeze? Charles has the "potential" to be a top 10 runner no doubt. The fact is that:

-He plays on a team with with no offensive identity

-He will see a lot of eight-man fronts since his quarterback doesn't threaten the deep part of the field

-He doesn't get goal line caries

-He has no Value in the draft since he had such a hot finish in 2009

Now take a look at Kevin Kolb. Kolb will probably end up being drafted anywhere from rounds six to nine in your draft after quarterbacks like Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Shaub. His juice is worth the squeeze at such a late selection.

-He plays in a pass happy offense

-His receivers threaten the deep parts of the field

-He has a good all around team

-He has added Value in the draft based on the fact he is a first year starter

Both players have their advantages and disadvantages, but one will be selected 6 or 7 rounds later. Taking "potential" players like Kolb is less risky in the later rounds. 

4) Weight players heavily on their last few opponents of the season

No one cares who went undefeated during the fantasy regular season. It's who holds the trophy when it's all said and done that gets the fortune and fame. Don't shy away from taking a player with a little bit lower rank if he has a easy fantasy playoff schedule. Looking at who your potential fantasy stud plays in the last few weeks of the season is an aspect that gets looked over by fantasy fish.

Good End of Year Schedules:

Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams

Week 15: Buffalo Bills- 30th in rush defense/156.3 YPG

Week 16: Detroit Lions- 25th in rush defense/ 126.6 YPG

Week 17: New England Patriots- 13th in rush defense/ 110.5 YPG

Matt Shaub/ Andre Johnson

Week 15: Tennessee Titans- 31st in pass defense/ 258.7 YPG

Week 17: Jacksonville Jaguars- 27th in pass defense/235.9 YPG

Peyton Manning/Reggie Wayne/Pierre Garcon

Week 15: Jacksonville Jaguars- 27th in pass defense/ 235.9 YPG

Week 17: Tennessee Titans- 31st in pass defense/ 258.7 YPG

Chris Johnson

Week 16: Kansas City Chiefs- 31st in rush defense/156.5 YPG

Week 17: Indianapolis Colts- 24th in rush defense/ 126.5 YPG

Knowshon Moreno

Week 15: Oakland Raiders- 29th in rush defense/ 155.5 YPG

Week 17: San Diego Chargers- 20th in rushing defense/ 117.8 YPG

Frank Gore

Week 15: San Diego Chargers- 20th in rush defense/ 117.8 YPG

Week 16: St. Louis Rams- 27th in rush defense/ 137.6 YPG

5) Don't get caught up in hometown players

Emotions run wild during the fast paced war zone that is the annual fantasy draft. Some fans love their respective teams so much that they grade their hometown stars higher than they should be. Be aware of this. Picks are far to valuable to be mixed in with emotion. It might help you sleep better on draft day, but you'll feel 10 times worse if your team flutters and you waste a early pick.

6) Buy insurance for your running backs

A good way to combat the injury bug is to buy insurance on a specific player. You can do this by drafting their back up in later rounds. This is a good idea for players that are frequently hurt or even suspended. In some instances it even should be a necessity, due to the increase of dual running back systems.  Here's a list of players you strongly need to think about handcuffing in 2010.

2010 Fantasy Duos:

DeAngelo Williams (Round 1)/ Jonathon Stewart (Round 4)

Frank Gore (Round 1)/ Glen Coffee (Round 12-13)

Adran Peterson (Round 1)/ Toby Gerhart (Round 11-12)

Ronnie Brown (Round 3-4)/  Ricky Williams (Round 7-9)

Joseph Addai (Round 3-4)/ Donald Brown (Round 9-10)

Brandon Jacobs (Round 6)/  Ahmad Bradshaw (Round 7)

7) Be sure to check bye weeks

There's no reason to draft a player for depth if he has the same bye week as your starter. You should try to squeeze out every advantage that you can during the season. This will give you a better seed in the playoffs and confidence to make the right decisions. You don't want to be playing the one seed team in the playoffs just because you had to forfeit games due to lackluster bye week replacements.

8) Take chances in the later rounds

Finding those gems in the late rounds is hard, but well worth the risk. The key is separating the players that have the potential to break out and those that are just steady point getters. If you think a rookie or second year player has a chance to have a productive year, take him over the consistent bye week replacement. You can always pick up reserves on the free agent wire, so take at least a couple flingers.You might look like a fool at first, but you'll be the one laughing when your 10th round pick is producing more than some of the other owners' first and second round picks.

2010 Fantasy Sleepers:

Kevin Kolb, QB

Malcolm Floyd, WR

Derek Anderson, QB

Felix Jones, RB

Julian Edelman, WR

Eddie Royal, WR

9) Don't be afraid to wheel and deal

Identify the biggest sucker in the league and continuously try and make trades with him until he forks over a player with value. Fantasy Football is fun, but can be a cut throat business. The more ruthless you are, the better your team will be. Think of it as being the "Donald Trump" of fantasy football. 

10) As the draft pans out, predict the future rounds

When the draft starts getting to the mid rounds, predicting where some players will fall can be very useful. If you really like a player but think he can be had a round later, check what positions your fantasy co-owners and project accordingly. A successful draft is 60 percent preparation/40 percent gamble.

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