What Next for the Philadelphia Flyers?: The 2010 Offseason

Following a devastating Game 6 OT loss to the Chicago Blackhawks, for the 35th straight season, the Philadelphia Flyers will yet again “look to next year.”

However, the unexpected playoff run of the 7th seeded Flyers has inspired hope and anticipation for the future for a team who, two short months ago, seemed destined to be trapped in salary cap hell, with numerous holes to fill and no high draft picks to help them do so.

Now, Philadelphia seems poised to reclaim their place as a yearly championship contender.

Despite the optimism created by their improbable playoff push, the Flyers still have enough legitimate issues to derail the quest to break their championship drought.

Luckily for GM Paul Holmgren, the Flyers have enough cap and roster flexibility to make the necessary moves, if he is willing to make some difficult and potentially franchise-altering decisions.

1) Don’t be satisfied with the status quo.

While this is a vague offseason goal, it is the mentality that Holmgren and the front office must possess in order to improve the team.

The easiest offseason path that Holmgren could follow is the path of satisfaction.

It would be simple for Holmgren to say, “We came two games from winning a cup, with two top 6 forwards in Simon Gagne and Jeff Carter playing through serious injuries.  A full season of postseason revelation Ville Leino, the continued maturation of Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk, and renewed intensity from 2009 regular season underachievers Scott Hartnell and Braydon Coburn, and we will win it all in 2010-11.”

It would be a simple conclusion, and also an inherently flawed one. 

While the Flyers proved through their plucky Stanley Cup Finals display against the Blackhawks that their playoff run was not a fluke, the fact remains that their run through the Eastern Conference playoffs could not have been scripted any better from a matchup standpoint.

The Flyers avoided their longtime nemesis, the Pittsburgh Penguins, and the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals, as both were taken down by the Cinderella Montreal Canadiens.

While a team can only beat the opponents in front of them, it is still true that the Flyers beat a team that they dominated in the regular season (New Jersey Devils), a team that scored the fewest goals in the Eastern Conference during the regular season (Boston Bruins), and the only team in the postseason to give up more goals than they scored in the regular season (Canadiens) in order to make it to the Finals.

Future playoff runs will almost certainly not be as favorable with regards to matchups as the 2010 run.

Clinging to the status quo will not lead to future championship runs, only more disappointment. Holmgren’s Flyers play in a conference with two teams led by the two best players in hockey.  To consistently compete with those squads in both the regular season and playoffs, the Flyers must strive to improve their roster from top to bottom.

It’s not like the Penguins and Capitals are going to sit back and let the Flyers take over the East.

2) Trade Jeff Carter.

This move would undoubtedly be the most controversial move that GM Paul Holmgren could contemplate during the offseason.

Carter, a 25 year old with a 40 goal season already to his credit, is the type of young impact player that a team can build around.

However, despite his immense talent, Carter is quickly becoming the odd man out on a Philadelphia team brimming with young stars and established veterans. 

The Flyers currently have too many centers on their roster, with Mike Richards, Carter, Danny Briere, and Claude Giroux all best suited to play the position, and all deserving of top-6 forward minutes.

Richards, as captain, is untouchable.

Briere, due to his $6.5 million contract, would be difficult to deal, and would surely not fetch as much as Carter due to monetary, age, and production factors.

Giroux could be dealt, but his favorable 2010 cap hit and untapped potential make him too important to trade away.

But Carter, with a $5 million cap hit in 2010 and slated to hit RFA status in 2011, is already expensive and will only get more costly in the coming years.

With young cornerstones like Giroux, van Riemsdyk, and Leino in line for long-term deals soon, locking up Carter to a contract worth more than $5 million annually would likely force the Flyers to let at least two out of the three leave via free agency.

Trading Carter would free up sufficient cap space to keep most of the core together, while receiving a sizable return from another team. 

In addition, the Flyers made their most recent run without the help of Carter, who spent the playoffs either injured or ineffective after returning from injury.

While trading away a 40 goal scorer would certainly hurt the Flyers’ offensive depth, most of his loss would be counter-balanced by regular season improvements by the aforementioned Giroux, van Riemsdyk, and Leino.

Also, by shopping Carter, the Flyers could realistically get packages that could range from a top tier goalie, a young goalie prospect, or even a re-infusion of high draft picks for a franchise in desperate need of them.

The combination of his high contract, high trade value, and relative replaceability makes Carter the best option to deal in order to ensure future competitiveness. 

3) Get a goalie.

After Michael Leighton’s stellar performance in the Eastern Conference Finals, unnamed sources from within the Flyers organization hinted that management believed that Leighton was the long awaited answer to the Flyers’ goaltending question that has existed ever since Pelle Lindbergh’s tragic death in 1985.

However, after a 3.96 GAA with a .880 save percentage in the Stanley Cup Finals, punctuated by allowing possibly the weakest Finals winning goal in league history, Leighton has likely forced Flyers management to change their opinion of the goaltending situation.

While both Leighton and Boucher proved to be competent goalies throughout the playoff run, their statistics were inflated by fantastic team defense.

Either would be a stellar backup goalie, but as the events of the finals proved, neither is a top tier option as a starter. 

The Flyers were rumored to be in talks for Tomas Vokoun at the trade deadline, but balked at relinquishing Jeff Carter.

Vokoun is an option yet again, but his $5.7 million cap hit and impending 2011 UFA status makes him a less attractive option for a team trying to be a long term competitor for the Cup.

A trade for Vokoun would not be a terrible move, but it would put a great deal of pressure on the Flyers to win the Stanley Cup in 2010, before the 33 year old goalie would need a long-term deal.

A more far-sighted decision would be a move for a young goaltending prospect.

Los Angeles’ Jonathan Bernier could potentially be available, if GM Dean Lombardi comes to the conclusion that current goalie Jonathan Quick is their franchise goalie. A deal involving Jeff Carter for Bernier and picks could be a possibility.

Also, Vancouver’s Cory Schneider will likely be available, now that Roberto Luongo has been signed to a long-term deal. Schneider could potentially be pried away from Vancouver for a low price, as he is coming off a less-than-stellar AHL season.

The Flyers would be gambling that Schneider’s poor 2009-10 was an anomaly, and that he remains the elite prospect that he once was. This uncertainty could lead to a deal not need to be fronted by the valuable Carter, but by a defensive prospect such as Kevin Marshall or Marc-Andre Bourdon, or even the young Ryan Parent, who also had a disappointing 2009-10.

Other options could be Jhonas Enroth (trapped behind Ryan Miller in Buffalo) or Michal Neuvirth from Washington.

The Flyers do finally have a legitimate goaltending prospect in Joacim Eriksson, who is coming off a monster season in the Swedish Allsvenskan League (2.40 GAA, .925 SV %).

However, Eriksson has yet to play in the top Swedish League, the Elitserien, and in a best case scenario, is likely 3 years away from the NHL.

Therefore, with players such as Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen not getting any younger, the Flyers can not afford to wait. They must make a move now, and they have the pieces to do so.

4) Sign Giroux long-term, begin discussions with Leino.

Currently, Giroux is still on his entry level contract, making him a total bargain even if he merely repeats his 2009-10 regular season numbers (16 G, 31 A, 47 PTS).

However, after his fantastic postseason, it is reasonable to assume a sizable increase in his statistics next season and beyond.

This offseason will likely be the last time that the Flyers can negotiate with Giroux with some degree of leverage, because the question remains whether Giroux is simply a postseason player and not capable of consistently putting up 70+ points in the regular season.

The Flyers, if they are convinced that Giroux is on the verge of becoming an elite player, have this last chance to sign him to a below-market deal.

An extension in the $3.0 – 4.0 million range could be possible, placing his cap hit in the same tier as contracts that Holmgren has given to players such as Scott Hartnell and Joffrey Lupul.

However, unlike Hartnell and Lupul, Giroux has elite potential, which creates the possibility such a contract could end up a legitimate bargain, allowing the Flyers to spend necessary cap space on goaltending and depth. 

Ville Leino was the other postseason revelation, going from Detroit salary dump to possible Conn Smythe winner.

Unlike Giroux, however, Leino does not have the same pedigree or history to warrant an immediate gamble.

While Giroux’s floor is of a 45 point, defensively responsible center, Leino’s floor is of a player that struggles to even crack a roster.

The Finnish forward was dominant in the postseason and has surely earned his spot on the roster for 2010-11, but the sample size remains small.

19 games of stellar play should not result in the Flyers immediately giving Leino a sizable long-term deal. Holmgren should begin discussions with Leino this offseason, and ascertain his potential demands.

If they are relatively low, a deal should be struck.

But if they are in the $3-4 million range, the Flyers should wait and see if Leino continues his top-6 forward caliber play in the upcoming season, and then try to work out a deal during the season.

5) Deal with the defense.

Despite the praise that goalies Leighton and Boucher received during the playoffs, it was the defense of the Flyers that carried them to the Finals.

Specifically, the foursome of Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, and Matt Carle all received substantial minutes, allowing Coach Peter Laviolette to essentially ignore the weakness of the Flyers’ no.5 and no.6 defensemen.

The combination of Ryan Parent, Lukas Krajicek and Oskars Bartulis dragged the Flyers down during the regular season, and part of the reason for the shocking playoff run was the newfound lack of reliance on such below-average players.

With Pronger, Timonen and Carle all signed long-term, the core of the defense will remain.

However, Braydon Coburn is a restricted free agent, and a long-term deal for him would be a definite priority, as he showed the capability to be a workhorse defender.

At worst, Coburn should be retained via arbitration, as the two sides appeared far apart in contract discussions during the regular season. 

The Flyers should not stop there. Krajicek is a UFA, and will likely not return, but the question of the 3rd pairing remains.

Bartulis showed enough promise this season to justify his status as the no.6 defenseman, and his cap friendly contract makes him valuable.

However, the Flyers can not enter 2010-11 with Ryan Parent as the anchor of the 3rd pairing.

While Parent showed potential in 2008-09, a back injury killed his lateral mobility and one-on-one strength in 2009-10.

The injury very well could linger, as some sources called it a potential herniated disk in his back, devastating for a 23 year old defenseman. 

To replace Parent, the Flyers actually have the cap space to go bargain hunting for a legitimate anchor to their 3rd pairing.

While the Flyers should not waste cap space on a top tier, or even a second tier defenseman, potential bargains could be older options such as Adrian Aucoin or Sean O’Donnell, both in their mid-to-late 30s coming off very strong seasons.

Both could be willing to take cheap short-term deals for one last shot at the cup.

6)  Sweat the details.

Any competent GM knows that every upgrade and every small move can make a huge difference.

For example, a minor midseason deal such as Ole-Kristian Tollefsen and a 5th Round Pick for Ville Leino proved to be one of the key reasons for the Flyers’ run.

While more robberies such as the Leino deal should not be expected of Holmgren, fans should expect their GM to resign key role players, or acquire superior replacements.

RFAs Daniel Carcillo and Darroll Powe should be re-signed, as both played key roles throughout the season, particularly Powe, who may be the team’s fastest player and most willing checker. Even UFA Danny Svyret, who showed flashes of two-way potential, should probably return as the team’s 7th defenseman. 

On the other hand, while UFA Arron Asham (10 G, 14 A, 24 PTS) would not be a terrible player to re-sign, the Flyers could potentially upgrade the position, possibly bringing back former fan favorite Mark Recchi to play on the Giroux-JVR third line.

The difference in cap hits between Asham and Recchi would be negligible at best, and the 41 year old could be receptive to a return to Philadelphia.

Still, if an upgrade can not be made, Asham should return.

But Holmgren should be actively looking to improve the Flyers’ bottom two lines, and their defensive depth.

7) Look into potentially moving Daniel Briere.

This would be a shock to fans and league observers alike.

Briere, long a poster child for bad contracts, is coming off a monster postseason in which he led the NHL in scoring with 30 points.

Arguably, for the first time since putting on a Philadelphia uniform, Briere earned every bit of his $6.5 million cap hit.

So why consider moving him now?

Any stock broker worth their salt knows that the most basic tactic is to buy low and sell high.

The Flyers will not have a better opportunity to rid themselves of Briere’s albatross of a contract as they do now. It would be a tough move to make, especially considering the chemistry he showed with Leino during the playoffs.

However, dealing Briere would turn the Flyers from a team hamstrung by the cap into a franchise on very solid financial footing.

It could even allow the Flyers to keep Carter while still having the space to lock up Giroux and van Riemsdyk, as long as a potential answer to the goaltending question is still found via other means.

To clarify, Briere should not just be given away.  If he remains on the roster, the offseason would not a failure at all.  Briere is a proven playoff performer and by all accounts, a great teammate.

But he is still a -25 in a Flyers uniform and is a defensive liability.

If a team would be willing to give up reasonably priced talented forwards or defensemen for him, Holmgren should seriously consider pulling the trigger.

Other offseason options for the Flyers would be a potential trade of Scott Hartnell, or even a trade of Braydon Coburn combined with the signing of an attractive replacement such as Dan Hamhuis or Zbynek Michalek.

However, this above blueprint would give the Flyers the best chance to remain a Stanley Cup favorite for years to come.

The team has holes, but Flyers fans should be comforted by the fact that their team is fully capable of filling them.

Now, the job rests on the shoulders of GM Paul Holmgren and his staff