2010 NBA Draft: How Good Will the 2010 Draft Class Be?
Draft foresight.
It’s a funny little thing.
If the Houston Rockets and Portland Trailblazers had foreseen in 1984 that the skinny shooting guard out of UNC named Michael Jordan would become the greatest player of all time, they would surely have drafted differently.
If the Pistons could have foreseen in 2003 that Darko Milicic would become an NBA joke while the three guys below him became perennial All-Stars, things would have gone differently.
Hell, if all the teams in the 2006 draft had realized that the two best players of the class would go at No. 6 and No. 21, that draft would have again gone differently.
That being said, however, it’s always fun playing the Foresight Game. So here’s one idiot’s prediction of how the Class of 2010 may turn out in five years' time.
The “Guy Who Was A Head Case In College, But Straightened Up When Coming Into The NBA” Award With No Name.
In a few years, I may be referring to this as the DeMarcus Cousins Award.
If DMC can keep his head straight, in my opinion he truly has the potential to become the best center in the game.
People have to remember one thing. In this draft, he’s probably the only true center who you would have to say is completely ready to play in the NBA. And he’s only 19. He still has upside to burn.
A lot could depend on where he goes.
While I’m seriously considering conducting a yagna (a Hindu sacrifice) in a hope that whichever God deals with basketball will send him to Golden State (although, to be honest, I don’t have a clue how to perform one), the best place for the big guy is probably Sacramento.
Small market (less off-court temptations), a young team of almost all good guys led by Tyreke Evans, who seems (a few dodgy incidents aside) to be a pretty decent bloke and a good leader, plus a good coaching and management staff who will know when to be tough on him and when to give him a hug at the same time.
In such an environment, he may just be able to put his reputation behind him and become as good as he can be. Which is pretty scary good.
The Monta Ellis Award For The Best Second-Round Pick.
Based on mock draft projections, I figure that this award could be shared between two very different players: Jordan Crawford, the Xavier freshman; and Jarvis Varando, the Mississippi State senior.
Crawford got an early 15 minutes of fame after his dunk over LeBron James earlier this year, however it’s not his athleticism that will carry him as far as his very nice shooting stroke. Which isn’t to say that his athleticism is lacking.
He’s a bit of a one-dimensional gunner right now, but his skills will ensure that he has a good NBA career as long as he stays fit and doesn’t do anything stupid.
He could automatically become a good sixth/seventh man for most teams in the league, and possibly even develop into a starting 2 guard.
Right now, he’s projected to go in the early second round, although some teams might be willing to use a late-first rounder on him.
The Magic in particular may be interested, with JJ Redick possibly on the way out (his play in the playoffs will earn him a very nice payday this off-season, and I doubt the Magic, who are already well over the luxury tax, will try too hard to match it).
The Magic will need a backup 2 guard who can shoot the three and possibly take over for Vince Carter in a couple of years.
Varando, on the other hand, is the kind of player who doesn’t look good on paper at all. He’s no freak athlete, doesn’t have tremendous upside potential, and won’t be wowing anyone in workouts.
What he is, is possibly the best defensive player in college basketball of the past year... some are even saying of all time, but I don’t know enough about college ball to make that judgment.
He’s a terrific shot blocker and post stopper, and he can also guard stretch forwards.
As Ben Wallace has shown, even if you have zero offensive game, you can still have a very successful NBA career.
Again, while Varando may be picked late first round by a team who needs an interior defensive presence (cough…Oklahoma City…cough), I feel he probably drops to the second.
If my Warriors don’t get big Cuz in round 1, I’m hoping we can snare Varando in the second. If nothing else, he’ll give us the defense we desperately need.
The Manu Ginobili Award For The Steal Of The Draft
There are a lot of guys who I wouldn’t write off for this award. However, there is one in particular who stands out. That guy is Luke Babbitt, the Nevada sophomore small forward who is projected to go somewhere in the late first round.
I’ve been watching a fair bit of Babbitt, and I suspect he may be a fair bit better than that.
His main skill is his scoring ability. He can function both as a spot-up jump shooter (even if his three-point shooting could use improvement) and he can also create his own shot off the dribble and has a surprisingly nice set of moves to get to the hoop.
He’s also a fair bit more athletic than people seem to realize. While he’s not winning the Slam Dunk Contest next year, he’s far from your stereotypical unathletic white ballplayer.
While he isn’t an elite passer by any means, he knows when to pass and when to shoot most of the time. In the Nevada games I watched with him playing, he seems to have decent shot selection and be in control of his game.
On defense, Babbitt isn’t going to be your guy who you want marking LeBron/Melo/B-Roy for 48 minutes, especially not in his first season, but he’s not a completely hopeless defender.
In a team with decent help defense, his relative lack of lateral quickness could be covered up.
Projections for Babbitt seem to be anywhere between late-lottery to early second round, with the most common being between 20 and 22.
If I were a GM, I’d be willing to take a late lottery chance on him. This guy has the potential to be an All-Star down the line.
One thing to note, though. However the Celtics go in this year’s Finals, they have to realize quickly that the Big Three won’t be around forever.
Even if Ray Allen re-signs for an MLE-type deal this year, the window for him, Pierce and Garnett as a championship trio probably ends in a year or two at best. Possibly even this year.
Danny Ainge probably realizes this and figures it’s time to start looking at a future built around Rondo.
If the Celts and their fans are willing to ignore the obvious Larry Bird parallels, they could do a lot worse than use their 19th pick to draft Babbitt (if he’s available), who could well develop into a perfect sidekick for Rondo.
A lineup of Rondo, new shooting guard, Babbitt, Big Baby, and Perk in a couple of years is going to be solid.
The Kwame Brown/Darko Milicic Wooden Spoon For Bust Of The Draft
Contrary to what many think, I don’t believe DeMarcus Cousins already has his name on this award for reasons I have stated above.
If anything, I believe the other young forward projected to go into the top 5, Derrick Favors, is more likely to win it.
Favors is pretty raw right now, but his raw physical gifts are projected to help him become an elite forward of the game once his skills develop.
However, there are plenty of ifs with that situation.
What if he has a few horror injuries? Or he simply never lives up to his potential?
That said, however, I don’t think that there’s anyone who totally stands out as a bust in neon lights the way Hasheem Thabeet did last year.
At a pinch, I’m going to say Greg Monroe. Word is that both Minnesota and the Kings are looking at maybe taking him in the top 5, however, he comes with plenty of question marks, most notably surrounding his defense, toughness and conditioning.
Those have a nasty habit of adding up and crippling careers if they aren’t worked on. And since Monroe’s work ethic is also apparently somewhat questionable…
If I were a GM (again, pipe dreams), I would not be keen to pick Monroe above about 12, and even then I’d strongly consider it. However, some team will fall in love with his unique game and take him in the top 10 for sure.
I suspect that the Pistons might be that team. I don’t trust Joe Dumars’ drafting skills, and considering that he seems to have forgotten what made the early-2000s Pistons teams so good (defense, toughness, teamwork) and is building a side of soft jump shooters, having a soft passing forward in Monroe seems to match that philosophy.
If Hassan Whiteside or Daniel Orton get taken in the lottery, they could also be contenders for this title.
The LeBron James “This Guy Is Going To Be A Superstar” Award
No surprises here: John Wall takes it in a canter.
I don’t think Evan Turner quite gets it, either. Turner is a very good player who will make a fair few All-Star teams over his career, but somehow there’s something missing from his game.
He just doesn’t scream “Superstar” the way Wall or even Cousins do, but Cuz is far from a sure thing.
I don’t need to rehash all the John Wall hyperbole. I will, however, point out one thing. Wall is one of the only guys I’ve seen who is not only ridiculously athletic, but has genuine point guard instincts.
He’s often compared to fellow Calipari products Derrick Rose and Tyreke Evans, but don’t be fooled. Wall is a true point guard, while Evans is a one and a half and Rose tends to waver. He’s the evolutionary Jason Kidd.
The Wizards should be thanking Abe Pollin they got him; you can’t tell me that he didn’t have a hand in those lottery balls from the sky.
The Mark “Chopper” Read Award For Most Badarse Moustache
Goes to the man himself. What, you’ve never heard of Chopper Read? Screw you. Google is your friend, and so is the 2000 Eric Bana movie Chopper .
I should ask Chopper if he’s willing to go and sit outside Ernie Grunfeld’s office with a gun until he agrees to trade the first overall pick to Golden State for Corey Maggette.
Wait, I’m rambling? Sorry about that.
I’m outta here. Peace out.
