2010 Belmont Stakes: Who Will Win?

Legendary trainer Nick Zito will be a very large part of the Belmont Stakes to be run this weekend on June 5th.

This time around, however, Zito will be saddling two of the race favorites in Ice Box and Fly Down . Actually, they may end up being the top two favorites. When Zito has walked away with his Belmont victories in 2004 and 2008, it was utilizing serious long shots in Birdstone (2004 at 36-1 odds), and Da' Tara (2008 at 38 to 1). 

Neither Ice Box or Fly Down are likely to see anything over 6 or 7 to 1 for this year's Belmont.

Expect much of the talk this week to revolve around the fearsome foursome of Ice Box, First Dude, Fly Down , and Game on Dude . With that said, however, one shouldn't discount the chances of some others in here that could find the Belmont to be very much to their liking in what looks to be a very weak and very open race.

We should also expect a lot of people and the press labelling this year's Belmont as a pure clunker. 

Hard to disagree.

With 12 likely starters come this Saturday, we have a combined 21 victories, with only 10 of those victories coming in races outside of Maidens.  And of those 10 wins, only 4 have come in Graded Stakes races.  On paper, this looks like a common $75K stakes race that could be run at any number of tracks across the country, much less a Grade I Triple Crown race running for a $1 Million purse.

While I tend to agree with much of the criticism of this race, I also tend to believe that we may well find this years best three-year old come out the winner of this race when all is said and done. 

THE CONTENDERS :

Dave in Dixie:   His lone race on dirt was his last in the Illinois Derby prep for the Kentucky Derby.  Not only did he not rate well in the race, but he had an inside trip and was never a factor in finishing 16 lengths back in a severely slow paced race.  With the Belmont looking to be run on a fast dirt track, it is hard to believe that Dave in Dixie will be any part of this one.  Pace is the name of the game in these types of races, and he looks to be no factor whether it is a hot or slow pace.  Very much looking elsewhere. 

Drosselmeyer:  Interesting entry.  It took him a while to break his Maiden, but once he did, he has put in some solid efforts in his last four including a 4th, 3rd, and 2nd in his last 3 Graded Stakes races.  While he was beaten badly by Fly Down in his last, one has to notice that he didn't break well and was blocked at the 3/8th pole in his effort.  One also has to like his works since that race on May 8th as well.  A possible longshot winner should be used in a lot of exotic tickets as he may well be 15 to 1 or more.

First Dude :  I'll admit that I fell into the trap of disrepecting this colt in the Preakness.  Looking back at that form, it was severely inept to leave out a colt who was as good or better than Fly Down who had just won the Grade II Dwyer in impressive fashion on May 8th.  With First Dude looking like the 'only' speed in this race, I find it hard to believe that anyone will let him get to he front in easy fractions and allowed to hang on down the grueling backstretch at the Belmont.  When all is said and done, I look for First Dude to be severely overbet for his incredible effort in the Preakness, and he is looking very likely to 'bounce' off of his solid effort just a few 3 weeks later.

Fly Down : Of the two Zito entries, I like Fly Down the best.  This lightly raced colt was steadied badly in his lone poor effort, and after his solid win in the Dwyer, he looks like he should be on the move forward.  With his breeding out of Mineshaft, one should also expect the 1 1/2 mile distance not to be as much of a problem for him as it may be for many others in here.  My selection to win.

Game On Dude : The second part of the possible "Dude-Dude" exacta, this colt is also on the rise as well.  Yet another lightly raced colt put forth his best effort to date in his last outing in the Grade III Lone Star Derby in which he pulled away for a solid 4 1/2 length win. With Baffert in the barn, it is very hard to take this guys chances lightly.  A serious contender to win this one.

Ice Box : Hard to dismiss his last two efforts for a colt that seems to be getting better on each and every time out.  He will likely go off as the race time favorite at odds of 9 to 5 or 2 to 1.  He may even get wagered down to 7 to 5 type odds due to his flashing finishes in both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.  Many will look at the 1 1/2 mile route of the Belmont to believe that a hard closing finisher like Ice Box should sit well in this field.  However, one can't dismiss the possibility that this race will not have that hot of a pace since there are so many closers in this one without much speed up front.  Yet another horse that I feel may well end up being overbet, and in a race in which the pace may not set up all that well for his deep closing talents.

Interactif:   Just this past weekend, Todd Pletcher was looking to enter Interactif in a stakes race.  He then took a second look at the Belmont field and decided to take a run at it.  Not surprising when you look at the overall class of the field, and not all that surprising when you look at his latest work and overall past performances.  Don't leave this guy out of the bottom of your exotics, and if you are looking for a 'shocking' upset — this guy could very well fit the bill.  Improving three year olds are always appetizing in races run at longer distances.

Make Music For Me : Another deep closer like Ice Box who will need a very hot pace for his late closing style to shape up.  However, I'm not sure that the Kentucky Derby really illustrates his running style as having to be a deep closer.  If he can be rated to sit back about 4 or 5 lengths early, he could end up having the best of it when the real running begins.  Then again, I'm not that sure I'm going to read that much into a solid effort in the Kentcky Derby as him being a horse on the upswing.  One of the hardest horses in the race to project, and a definite wildcard.  Very much watch the Tote Board on this guy, as it looks like he'll go off at around 10 to 15 to 1.

Spangled Star :  Easily the most unlikely to win this one.  While he had a decent effort in his last out in the Grade III Withers, even that effort looks to be a bit tame even amongst these.  He could be on the upswing, and worthy of the bottom end exotics, but it is extremely difficult to see him winning this thing unless things simply fell into his lap. Just two back, you could have claimed this guy for $40K in his 3rd place finish at Laurel Park.  Very much looking elsewhere.

Stately Victor :  My big longshot in the Kentucky Derby is back on the Triple Crown trail to take on this timid field.  One can easily look back at his Kentucky Derby effort and make a lot of excuses for his 8th place finish.  He was banged around more than Lookin' At Lucky, who finished 6th in the Derby and went on to win the Preakness.  Out of one of my favorite horses of all-time in Ghostzapper, his works coming out of the Kentucky Derby show that he didn't get beat down as much as one would expect.  While he is yet another closer in a race full of closers, he does demonstrate enough 'early' speed that he should be able to hang around early enough to be a big factor late.  Do not look past this guy on any ticket that you may wager on Saturday. 

Stay Put :  Gee, yet another closer.  However, this guy has yet to beat anybody.  And I mean anybody of note in his 7 career races.  While he didn't show horrible in his two Kentucky Derby prep races, he didn't exactly set the world on fire either in his two 5th place finishes in which he was beaten by fellow entrant Drosselmeyer in the Louisiana Derby. While one can make a case for him coming off of a $100K Optional Claiming victory, you also have to be aware that it was still a claiming race.  His works are nothing to show that he can be a factor in any early pace scenario, and with a bunch of closers in this race that he has never showed he could beat before, it is tough to make a real case for him unless things set up perfect.  Not likely.

Uptowncharlybrown :  There was a lot of early spark and hype surrounding this guy as he sped out to two dominating victories to start his career in impressive fashion.  He then came up a bit empty in his true Kentucky Derby prep races in which he could not crack the top 2 finishers and failed to meet the qualifications based upon Graded Stakes earnings.  With that said, none of his 5 lifetime starts is anything to show that he will not be competitive this Saturday, and he very well could be sitting on a big one.  A very likely 'Wise Guy' selection this Saturday that has every chance and ability to make a huge step forward.

How does it break down?

As I stated earlier, pace is going to be huge for this race.  While I doubt we get real hot fractions early this year, I also don't expect anybody to let First Dude rush to the lead and hang on like he did in the Preakness.  His effort in that one showed that he is more than capable of hanging on extremely tough down the stretch. 

Look for First Dude, Game On Dude ,and Interactif to battle a bit for the lead with First Dude getting the best of it early.  But like I said, it won't be blistering fractions, and should set up well for stalkers like Drosselmeyer, Fly Down, Stately Victor , and Uptowncharlybrown . Ice Box will likely not get the solid fractions he is looking for, and will not enjoy his severely late-charging style. I say that First Dude will have troubles staying up front as, his turnaround effort in a short three weeks takes it toll down the Belmont stretch and a host of others begin passing him when the real racing begins.

Who do I Like:

Win:  Fly Down — I think he may well end up being the best three year old of the bunch before the year is done, and the Belmont could springboard him towards a huge Summer.

Exacta:  Fly Down with Drosselmeyer, Stately Victor, Uptowncharlybrown

Trifecta:   I'll put Fly Down, Stately Victor , and Uptowncharlybrown on top with Drosselmeyer added in with those in the two hole, and then Ice Box and Interactif to finish out the bottom.

Longshot:  Drosselmeyer . The smartly trained William Mott colt is training well and looks like he should be sitting on a peak effort.  If given 15 to 1 or more, he'll be extremely appetizing for a solid Win-Place-Show ticket.