Cream of the Crop: The 2010 NBA Free Agent Class…and Where They'll Land
In case you haven’t heard, the 2010 NBA free agent class is pretty good. OK, it’s probably the best in league history.
Trust me. There’s a reason teams spent the 2009-10 season trading for expiring contracts — cough, cough (the New York Knicks) — or failed to resign most of its roster. That’s you, Miami.
With the speculation of which team will land which player(s) already in full force, I decided to offer my predictions on where the top 10 free agents will end up. Keep in mind though that my predictions might be about as far off as Dwight Howard’s shot attempts in game 1 against the Boston Celtics.
The order of my top free agents is based on several factors: age, potential, recent performance and injuries are just a few of them
LeBron James, SF
The draft lottery really screwed the pooch for the New Jersey Nets. All the talk of LeBron playing with John Wall and for part-owner Jay-Z ended when the Nets received the No. 3 pick. With the Nets out as a potential LeBron suitor, there are only a few options for King James: Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles (Clippers) and New York.
I’m a firm believer that anyone who wants to see a LeBron-Wade combo in Miami would be even more disappointed with the results than the Raptors after signing Hedo Turkoglu. As John Hollinger notes on ESPN.com, LeBron is No. 2 on the list of players who control the ball the most. Take a wild guess who No. 1 is.
Yep, it’s Dwyane Wade. Call me crazy, but I just can’t see that working.
At only 25 years old and already with two MVP trophies under his belt, LeBron’s best years may still be ahead. Scary thought, I know. But just because he’s the biggest star in the sport doesn’t mean he has to go to the biggest city, a.k.a New York or Los Angeles. Let’s cross the Clippers off the list — LeBron isn’t playing second fiddle to Kobe in L.A., even if it is just for a few years.
And although the Knicks have the potential to sign two max contract players, the team’s roster is too depleted and too talentless to entice LeBron. New York may provide him with the best opportunity to turn LeBron the man into LeBron “The Global Icon,” but he isn’t winning a championship anytime soon in the Big Apple.
Most recent reports are saying that LeBron is leaning toward signing with the Chicago Bulls because he sees the Windy City as the Winning City. But let’s think about it this way. Do you think LeBron wants to go to Chicago where the Michael Jordan comparisons will only put more pressure on the King? Do you think LeBron wants to live in the shadow of the greatest player in NBA history? Do you think Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah — who all of a sudden has went from “guy with funny hair” to “bait to lure LeBron” — are good enough sidekicks to win an NBA title?
I don’t.
Many NBA analysts say that LeBron wants to build a legacy and be remembered as one of the greatest players of all-time. He’s not building his own legacy in Chicago — he’ll be drowning in Jordan’s. He’s not winning championships in Chicago — Noah is not the third best player on a championship caliber team.
So when it comes down to his possible destinations, LeBron won’t choose fame (L.A. and N.Y.) or being the second-best Bull ever, something tells me he’ll listen to his heart and stay in Cleveland. Of course, the Cavs can pay him the most too.
The Landing Spot: Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Dwyane Wade, SG
After LeBron, Wade is hands down the No. 2 free agent in the 2010 class. For all we know, he could be the best player in the class, but his career has been riddled by injuries. At 28 years old, he’s still in the prime of his career, but many wonder how his body will hold up once he reaches 30. Even so, his proneness to injury isn’t going to scare any team away and teams that miss out on LeBron won’t look past him.
Much like LeBron, Wade will get hard looks from New York and his hometown Chicago Bulls. Much like LeBron, I think he’ll politely stay put. The Miami Heat have the potential to sign two max contract players (Wade and free agent A) and can even sign three if the team finds a suitor for Michael Beasley, which won’t be terribly easy but can happen.
If Wade can be assured that the Heat land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, Wade will likely finish his career in Miami. Come on, there are worse things than being a multi-millionaire, starring in commercials with Charles Barkley and living in South Beach — like playing on a team where Quentin Richardson is your second best player.
Wade loves Miami. Miami loves Wade. The Heat will sign another max contract player. The Heat will sign Wade.
The Landing Spot: Miami Heat
3. Chris Bosh, PF
Chris Bosh has left his fate up to Twitter, but his real fate may actually rely on two other top free agents: Wade and Stoudemire. Wade has made it perfectly clear that he needs a formidable sidekick in Miami and with LeBron out of the mix, his best two options are Bosh and Stoudemire. The Heat aren’t signing both of these guys, but it’s no secret they’ll push hard for both of them anyway. I think Stoudemire has plans elsewhere (I’ll get to that next) and Bosh will head to South Beach to form one of the league’s best duos.
Bosh would be a better signing for the Heat than Stoudemire. Though he and Bosh have similar production, Bosh is two years younger and not nearly as injury prone. Signing Bosh, however, could trigger some big changes in Miami, as the Heat don’t see Beasley as a small forward. They’d have to try and move him. If that happens, the Heat could go after another big star as well, but three stars on one team wouldn’t be the smartest decision chemistry-wise. Either way, I think Bosh is in, Beasley is out and the Heat sign another notable free agent — just not a max contract one.
The Landing Spot: Miami Heat
4. Amare Stoudemire, PF
Amare Stoudemire averaged 26 points and nine rebounds during the 2004-05 season for the Phoenix Suns. His coach? Mike D’Antoni. In case you’ve been sleeping the past few years, D’Antoni is the current coach of the New York Knicks. The starting power forward for D’Antoni in 2009 was David Lee who averaged 20 points and 12 rebounds. The theme? If you play power forward for D’Antoni, you’re going to put up inflated, I mean big, numbers.
And as much as LeBron wants to win an NBA championship, Stoudemire wants to put up big numbers and collect a big check. There’s no better place to do that than New York.
The Landing Spot: New York Knicks
5. Joe Johnson, SG
Joe Johnson ended his season the way no pending free agent wants to: with horrible production in a horrific playoff series loss. While Johnson may have lost out on the potential for a max contract, he is still one of the most coveted free agents of the 2010 class. At 29 years old, his best years may be behind him but he’s still a very good player who can score 22-25 points per game, dish out some assists and grab some rebounds.
Based on my predictions that LeBron and Wade will pass on going to Chicago, this prediction seems like a no-brainer (But retaining Vinny del Negro seemed like one also and Chicago cut him loose, so assuming the Bulls brass have any brains may be a brainless move on my part). After losing Ben Gordon in free agency and trading John Salmons, the one thing the Bulls needed most this season was a scorer.
That’s why they’ll pursue Wade/LeBron hard and throw big money their way. But with those two off the market, Johnson is a good consolation prize. He’ll take some of the pressure off Derrick Rose, and provide the Bulls with the scoring threat that kept this team from competing with the Cavs in this year’s playoffs.
The Landing Spot: Chicago Bulls
6. Rudy Gay, SF (Restricted)
Rudy Gay is a restricted free agent which makes his situation a bit trickier than others. Restricted free agents don’t switch teams very often, with Paul Millsap being a good example. But at only 23 years old and blessed with incredible athleticism, Gay might be the rare exception to the rule.
His current team, the Memphis Grizzlies, aren’t known for dishing out huge contracts to its best player. That’s partly why the Grizzlies basically gave away Pau Gasol in the most lopsided trade in recent memory. It’s almost as if the team said: “Hey, we don’t want to pay this guy. Why don’t you take him and bring another three or four championships to Los Angeles?” I could write a book on that, so let’s move on.
If the Grizzlies decide against paying Gay big money, the typical teams with cap space will jump all over Gay. On a whim though, I’ll throw a wildcard in the mix here. Remember that team that traded away most of its roster and had its star player suspended for a gun incident? Oh yeah, it’s the Washington Wizards.
After winning the draft lottery, the team could get right back on track this offseason. Any pick other than John Wall is a bad one. Take Wall first overall and sign Gay to an offer sheet that the Grizzlies won’t match. All of a sudden, the woeful Wizards will be making more magic than Harry Potter.
The Landing Spot: Washington Wizards
7. Dirk Nowitzki, PF
The Dallas Mavericks are trying to reach a contract extension with Dirk Nowitzki, who will make $21.5 million next year if he stays in Dallas. Dirk thinking he’s getting anything close to that on the open market is a dumber move than proposing to Cristal Taylor. Although Dirk has been a top ten player in the league for several years, he is 32 years old and he probably only has a few years left playing at an elite level, if that.
Just like Wade in Miami, Dirk and Dallas are made for each other. Mavericks fans don’t want to see him go and I don’t think he has any interest in leaving Dallas. The team’s core is old — I’m talking Betty White old — so losing its best player wouldn’t help anything, even if he’s pretty old too.
The Landing Spot: Dallas Mavericks
8. Carlos Boozer, PF
This is where making these predictions is starting to give me a headache. The main rumored destinations for Carlos Boozer have been Miami, New York/Jersey, Washington or a return to Utah. Boozer isn’t returning to Utah because the team’s backup power forward Paul Millsap just signed a big contract last year. Come on, why would a Boozer live in Utah anyway?
Get it, anyone?
Moving on, with Miami already signing Bosh and the Knicks signing Stoudemire, there’s no room for Boozer in either of those places. The Nets will likely take Derrick Favors in the draft and already have Yi Jianlian, so there’s no fit there either. The Wizards don’t have the cap room to sign Boozer — that’s your fault, Gilbert Arenas.
Another rumor I’ve seen numerous times is Boozer going to Detroit in a sign-and-trade, which I assume would involve either Tayshaun Prince or Richard Hamilton. I don’t think this move would really turn any heads in Detroit or Utah, but at this point, it seems like the likeliest option. Because I really have no idea, Boozer winds up as a Piston.
The Landing Spot: Detroit Pistons
9. David Lee, PF
David Lee is the most underrated player on this list hands down. Yes, he did put up inflated numbers playing for D’Antoni, but he still produced, leading the league in double-doubles in 2008-2009. With the reunion of D’Antoni and Stoudemire in New York, that leaves Lee out of the Knicks picture. But Lee has a perfect fit waiting for him, though it may be hard to make the transition from the Big Apple to the Big Boring.
I’ll give you a hint where Lee fits best. It’s a team with an incredibly bright future and an incredibly talented player who just recently turned old enough to drink alcohol. If you don’t know by now, it is the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Toward the middle of the season, I said that the team was a veteran presence away from being a legit threat in the West. Though Lee doesn’t exactly have a lot of postseason experience, he’s a good enough player to help a very young Thunder team. Add Lee To Durant, Westbrook, Green and co. and this team is the real deal.
The Landing Spot: Oklahoma City Thunder
10. Ray Allen, SG
Ray Allen is 34 years old, but as timeless as they come. If you watched any of the Celtics playoffs game this season, you know he can still ball. After Boston’s ridiculous run this postseason, I think it only makes sense for Allen to return to the Celtics.
The Landing Spot: Boston Celtics
