What To Do With The Golden State Warriors' Draft Pick
I had chosen to watch yesterday’s draft lottery on a computer in my university library instead of skipping my 9am tutorial to stay home and watch it in bed.
Not the best decision I made.
When Beelzebub (sorry, David Stern) announced that we had the sixth overall pick in the draft, I let out a string of very loud F-bombs and punched the screen. Hard.
Needless to say, I’m banned from the computer labs the rest of the semester and have to pay for a new monitor.
Eventually, I calmed myself down. After all, I am a Golden State fan. Disappointment is near-second nature to me. (I’m also a Raiders fan, which means it pretty much is second nature). So I stuck another pin in my Chris Cohan voodoo doll and got on with the day.
Then I started to think about what we could get out of this, and more importantly, what I’m hoping we get out.
1) If one of the big 5 fall out of the top five, we take them. I don’t care what there is to it.
This is a five player draft — John Wall, Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Wesley Johnson and Derrick Favors. Of those five, the first four are ready to contribute at a high level straight away, and everyone knows about Favors’ potential. They’re the only five I can definitely see becoming All-Stars in the near future.
Therefore, if by the grace of Jeebus one of them is still on the board at six, we take them. LARRY RILEY, DO YOU HEAR ME? TAKE THEM!!
That includes DeMarcus Cousins. I have been a critic of him in the past — I said that we probably shouldn’t take him based on his character issues and possible incompatibility with Nellie Ball — but that’s when I thought we had the third or fourth pick. With the sixth? I take him with open arms.
I mention Cousins specifically because I figure he’s the most likely to drop to us. John Wall and Evan Turner will be the first two picks. That’s a given. The only question is whether Washington buck the pundits and take Turner first.
At three, I figure the Nets will take Derrick Favors. Power forward is their main Achilles heel right now and he fills that role, and forms a nasty pick and roll combo with Devin Harris. Once his game develops a bit, he could be anything. I’m usually loath to compare players to others in the NBA right now, but if he turns out to be that surreal combination of Stoudemire and Howard…
Anyway, at fourth you’d imagine that the T-Wolves would take Wes Johnson, given their wing depth is shallower than a kiddie pool right now. However, David Kahn is their GM. If there’s one guy in the NBA I fully trust to mess up a good draft situation, it’s him. It would not surprise me — at all — to see him take another forward or center even though they have Love and Jefferson.
Even making the big assumption that Kahn does the sensible thing, there’s no guarantee the Kings take the big Cuz at 5. Word on the internet is that they’re quite scared of his character issues, especially as they seem to be trying to build a team of good guys around Tyreke Evans right now. The Kings need a good 2 guard who can pair with Tyreke (i.e. one who works best off the ball and can shoot) — it wouldn’t surprise me to see them take a punt on a James Anderson or Xavier Henry early.
The only other one I can see falling is Johnson, but that’s assuming (again) that Kahn or Geoff Petrie screws up and lets him fall to us. Johnson’s draft value is a bit all over the place right now — he’s been mooted everywhere from third to 10th — but if he’s on the board at six, we take him and be damn glad that we did. And we send Kahn and Petrie flowers and a fruit basket each. (I know I will if we get either of them).
Which leads me into point two…
2) Draft for potential. Not need.
Other than point guard (where there aren’t any standout prospects other than Wall) and shooting guard (where most of the best prospects after Turner are low lottery guys), there really isn’t an area the Warriors don't need to improve fast. Which is a good position when coming into the draft.
At a glance, it would appear that we need a center most, as our best guy at that position (Andris Biedrins) is foul-prone, has a rudimentary offensive game and seems to have forgotten how to shoot free throws. However, there’s a catch. After Cousins, the center quality in this draft heads way downhill. The best hope for Cole Aldrich is Chris Kaman 2.0. — a stat-stuffer on a bad team or a fourth or fifth option on a good team. Aldrich’s rebounding and shot blocking also doesn’t appear to be anything special — I’d take Beans in both areas over him.
Hassan Whiteside is the other center prospect, and while he’s pretty mobile and a hell of a defender, on the offensive end he makes Biedrins look like Wilt Chamberlain. Plus, he comes with his own character red flags. If we take him at six and don’t trade, I’m officially quitting on the Warriors for good. The same goes for Ed Davis (still very raw, and we already have two developing forward prospects in Wright and Randolph), Ekpe Udoh (Whiteside with less height) or Donatas Motiejunas (all the weaknesses of Euro bigs without a lot of the good parts, like consistent three point shooting).
No, considering that there isn’t anyone who stands out after the first five as someone who will come and contribute at a top level right away, we gotta go for potential.
I said in my old series of articles that if we get sixth we should draft Al-Farouq Aminu, and I stand by that. Aminu would fit in reasonably well to the Warriors system. While he’s an average shooter from mid-range and behind the arc at best right now, his mechanics and form are nice so this should improve. He’s also very mobile, athletic, a good transition scorer and slasher and (a first for the Warriors) a solid, committed man-to-man defender from what I’ve seen of him.
His length helps in this regard. While he’s not going to be coming in and locking down LeBron or Wade in his first year, he should only get better. And given that we have no such thing as help defense, this is basically a necessity.
Greg Monroe is the only other one I would be comfortable with us taking and keeping. Monroe comes with his own share of red flags, specifically relating to his commitment to basketball and his heart on the court, and his limited mobility/athleticism and average defense. However, his game is intriguing. A 6’11” forward who could play center in Golden State, Monroe is an excellent passer and a solid ball-handler for his size. He could easily become a secondary playmaker and take some pressure off Curry in this regard.
Monroe also has a better offensive post game than I realized — while he’s not Shaq by any means yet, his moves are good and he scores. Plus, he has the ability to occasionally step out and make the mid-range J — always handy from a big man. If he can improve this facet of his game (along with his defense), he could very well become a solid starter for the Warriors and an All-Star a few years down the line.
If we draft Monroe, however, it means we probably have to trade one of Wright, Randolph or Biedrins (depending on where the coaching staff see him playing). Monroe’s game is fairly NBA-ready right now, but that always leads to questions of upside. However, he could become a starter on this current Warriors team if we needed him to. With Aminu, he can probably spend a year or two coming off the bench until his game refines a bit more, or we salary-dump Maggette and show some faith by making him the starting SF. If we did that, it would tell me that the team is gonna be rebuilding for a while, probably until we make another playoff series in ten years and proceed to blow that team up the next offseason.
