The Great Draft Bust Debate: Leaf Or Russell?

Every year around April, discussion around clubs and bars turn to one highly controversial subject; the NFL Draft. One particular highly controversial subject is the debate over who is the drafts biggest bust. Although there are many worthy victors (or losers, depending on how you look at it) of such a prestigious accolade, the consensus choice is generally an infamous Washington State alum – Ryan Leaf. However, on 28^th April 2007, a competitor to Leaf’s crown was born. JaMarcus Russell out of Louisiana State University. A three hundr... sorry 250lb quarterback with all the skillset to become the ‘great player’ Al Davis envisioned. Many analysts were wooed by his humungous arm, which compared favourably to a love boat-less Daunte Culpepper (who ironically had just flamed out as the Dolphins big money quarterback). However, it would soon turn out that Russell’s inability to stay out of fast food ‘restaurants’ (you would think he could afford better!) and his shocking lack of work ethic would result in an abysmal set of performances during his three year stay in Oaktown. Three years after the 2007 NFL Draft, Russell is out of shape, out of a job and potentially out of chances. As a result of the spectacular flop nature their careers share, the comparison between Leaf and Russell is an intriguing one. Leaf, the classic one year college wonder. While Russell was the prototypical upside selection whose college career did not quite fit his gaudy skillset (despite that renowned victory over the Fighting Irish). Ultimately, they both ended in the same disastrous result for their downtrodden franchises but who was the worse bust?

Money

In 1998, Ryan Leaf inked a 4 year contract worth $31.25 million, including a guaranteed $11.25 million.

In 2007, Russell signed a 6 year deal worth up to $68 million, with $31.5 million guaranteed.

Simply put, Russell’s signing bonus was worth more than what Leaf would have been paid if he worked out as a good pick for the Chargers.

1-0 Russell on bust factor

Other Draft Value

When the Raiders found themselves with the 1^st overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft; the general consensus was they needed to go quarterback. Although many begged for future Pro Bowl wide out Calvin Johnson (aka Randy Moss minus character issues – but stuck in Detroit) it was never really a sensible move for a ‘rebuilding franchise’ to ignore the quarterback position. Thus Oakland had to decide between Brady Quinn, the poster boy from Notre Dame, or Russell. Unfortunately, Quinn became a bust also with the Cleveland Browns, although less spectacularly, and it could be argued as such that the Raiders were in a lose-lose situation. The Chargers actually traded up for Leaf meanwhile, giving up 2 1^st round picks, a 2^nd round pick, reserve linebacker Patrick Sapp and 3 time Pro Bowler Eric Metcalf – all to move up one spot with the Cards. In the top 10, there were five future Pro Bowlers (Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson, Kyle Turley, Greg Ellis and Fred Taylor) truly demonstrating how poorer a pick the Leaf selection turned out to be from a value standpoint.

Russell 1-1 Leaf

Overall Play

Leaf: 25 gms, 3,666 yards, 14 TDs, 36 INTs, 24 fumbles, 48.4% completions, 50.0 QB rating

Russell: 31 gms, 4,083 yards, 18 TDs, 23 INTs, 25 fumbles, 52.1% completions, 65.2 QB rating

On the surface it appears Leaf clearly has worse stats and therefore his play was worse. However, in reality it is far closer, as Leaf was not playing in the 'air it out' league which Russell has floundered in to this point. The average QB rating in each decade has risen and with new contact rules limiting the defensive backs ability to jam receivers, it is becoming easier and easier for QB's to find open targets. As such, it could be argued that Leaf had it far harder than Russell ever did. In fact, further evidence for the argument of Leaf being slightly better in terms of play is shown by the progress that they made over their short careers with their drafted team. While Leaf showed painfully slow progress, he progressed nonetheless, with his QB rating going from 39 (rookie) to 56.2 to 57.7 in his final year. Whereas Russell's spread goes 55.9 to 77.1 (which is actually quite impressive) to 50 (which is appaling in the modern era). Overall, my tiebreaker for this judgement is their teams success, as I find it impossible to offset these differences in statistics. Leaf's career record stands at 4-17 whereas Russell's reads 7-18. So on that theory, Leaf is the bigger bust in this category as well.

Legacy

My final category to judge this is the legacy which they have left upon their team. Russell is renowned for his billing as the first 300lb quarterback (Jared Lorenzen never really counted as a quarterback in my opinion) who ate his way out of a team and who's owner fired their coach in support of Russell. Leaf meanwhile was a player who had a hot temper (youtube him and you'll soon find out why) and had a passionate love of golf that seemingly outweighed his professional career. Leaf appears, to me at least, to be a bona fide jerk who cared for no one but himself. By comparison, very few in the Raiders organisation have bad things to say about Russell - other than complaining about his appalling work ethic. In fact, Russell almost seems well liked but for his complete lack of interest in football and total enamourement with self indulging jewellery (maybe his weight is caused by extensive neck muscles?!). So, in this category, Leaf notches a clear win due to his overall dislike he garnered around his team and the league.

In conclusion, Ryan Leaf is in all likelihood still the biggest draft bust the league has ever beholden. Although, a solid argument could still be made for Russell, I truly believe that Leaf has retained the infamous title that has followed him for the best part of the last ten years. He is the Biggest Draft Bust Ever.