NHL Playoffs: Round 2 Analysis, Round 3 Predictions

I've done the same thing so far as 2009.  I started off with a great first round 6-2 and now started my slide with a horrible 0-4.  How was I to know I was going to see the second greatest upset in NHL history (Pittsburgh-Montreal); guess wrong in an anyone's series (Boston-Philadelphia); succumb to sentiment (Vancouver-Chicago); and see the Detroit magic fade against a team that usually finds ways to lose in playoffs (Detroit-San Jose)?  Maybe I'll revert to coin tossing.

I'll do what I usually do, and list players in trouble, then analyze the losing teams, and then try to predict who will be playing for the Stanley Cup.

l.  Players In Trouble

Marc Andre Fleury

Fleury is good enough to win a Stanley Cup for a high scoring team, but not good enough to win games on his own when the rest of the team struggles.  Fleury lost six games in total this year, and gave up four goals or more in four of them.  Fleury bears an eerie similarity to Gerry Cheevers, Boston's goalie in the greater 1971 upset by Montreal.  Boston only won two Stanley Cups in the Orr-Esposito era, and everybody agrees they should have won more.  Fleury can certainly lead the Penguins back to the Cup if the rest of the team smartens up and some changes are made.  But is this the type of goaltender this team should have if they want to be the dynastic team, many fans believe they can be?  Is he a strength or a weakness?  It's going to be debated in the off season.

ll.  The Future Of The Losing Teams

Vancouver Canucks

Last year, Vancouver believed it had the formula to go all the way.  A combination of the Sedin twins and supposedly the goaltending of Martin Brodeur's successor as the best goalie in the NHL.  The Canucks stuck with the formula again this year and again were proved wrong by Chicago, a team that may now have a hex on them by having a formula themselves on how to beat Vancouver consistently. 

What's been proved is that the Luongo-Sedin combination is nowhere near enough and a major overhaul is necessary if Vancouver wants to go farther than the second round.  First off, Luongo has proved that while he is a good goaltender, he is nowhere near the figure the Canucks thought he was when they traded for him.  They have to either trade him or create a team where he is not relied on so much.  He played poorly against Chicago in 2009.  In 2010, at least he has a legitimate excuse: the Vancouver defense proved that they can't handle physical forwards who park themselves permanently in front of the Canuck net. 

A third seed of Vancouver's defeat showed itself in the first series: both Los Angeles and Chicago at times scored at will on the power play.  The Canucks won't win the Stanley Cup if they can't kill penalties.  There were also times during both series where the Canucks in explicitly started to play stretches of dopey hockey against opponents whom they had the lead on, which allowed them to regroup and get back into the game.  If the Canucks want to be contenders instead of pretenders, a drastic rethink and reconstruction has to take place.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings may have been burned out after playing so many games in the last two years.  They started slowly, found their form down the stretch, but then struggled in the playoffs against two teams whom the used to handle with ease.  They also may have a major problem in goal.  Jimmy Howard was good enough to get the Wings into the playoffs and barely win a playoff round, but he gave up bad goals against San Jose at bad times. 

Do the Wings take a chance on him as their No. 1 goalie next year?  Or do they trade for an experienced netminder who has won in the past and may still have something left that can put them back on top?  They also must decide if their veteran players still have enough left to lead them back to the top once more or if they need to start getting younger.  It will interesting to see if they make any major changes in the off season.

Pittsburgh Penguins

A colossal disappointment for the defending Stanley Cup champions, a team that many people have dynastic ambitions for, and the victims of the second greatest upset in Stanley Cup history, both by the Montreal Canadiens.  Only the 1971 defeat of the Bobby Orr-Phil Esposito, Boston Bruins was greater.  There is an eerie similarity in both defeats.  The team with the two best players in the NHL loses to a hot goaltender, Jaroslav Dryden-Ken Halak.  The heavily favored black and gold loses to the red, white, and blue. 

Actually it was disappointing year all around for the Penguins.  With Crosby and Malkin and the team winning the Stanley Cup in 2009, they were expected to repeat with ease, but instead they fell to fourth and didn't even win their own division.  Thus they drew a much tougher opponent in the first round, Ottawa.  Montreal's strategy uncovered a weakness with Pittsburgh.  Concentrate on taking away the top centers, Crosby, Malkin, and Staal, and let the wingers try and beat them.  Pittsburgh's wingers proved unequal to the task. 

Pittsburgh needs to bring in some more snipers to play with their top centers.  The other major question is goaltending.  Is Marc Andre Fleury the type of goaltender to win this team the Cups they think they can win?  This team has the potential to rival the great Canadien, Islander, Oiler dynasties of the past.  Or they can end up like their counterparts of this series, the 1970s Boston Bruins, the dynasty that wasn't.

Boston Bruins

The Boston Bruins have won five Stanley Cups in their long history, but are mostly remembered by their far more numerous epic defeats in the playoffs, to which they have just added another to their collection.  Most of those defeats were by Montreal, but now Philadelphia has added its name to Bruins infamy.  To be up 3-0 in the series and 3-0 at home in the deciding game and lose, will not be forgotten for long time. 

The Flyers became only the fourth team in the four major North American sports, and the third in NHL history (1942 Maple Leafs, 1975 Islanders), to come back from being down 3-0 in a playoff round.  The Bruins also have the distinction of possessing the two worst too-many-men-on-the-ice penalties in Stanley Cup history.  TSN rubbed it in by showing both the famous call and the back-breaking 1979 goal by Guy Lafleur twice, which broke the heart of Don Cherry, and proved to be his last game as coach of the Bruins.  (It will be interesting to hear what he has to say on Sunday's CBC telecast.) 

Most of the blame will be placed on Boston's pop-gun attack which showed in critical moments in this series, but the entire team, including Tuuka Rask, despite his brilliant efforts at times, has to be called into question, when their forte is defense and they blow a 3-0 lead on home ice.  A step in the right direction will be getting either Tyler Seguin or Taylor Hall in next year's draft.

Round 3 Predictions

I'm almost afraid to do this after last round.  I want to get at least 50 percent right.  After the last round, all four winners think they are they team of destiny, so there were will be two bitterly disappointed teams at the end of this round.

Philadelphia-Montreal

The team with the hot goalie vs the team that has eliminated three teams (the first was the Rangers), two in epic style.  Once Simone Gagne returned to the lineup, the Flyers were a different team, and showed epic resiliency and grit.  The two teams split the regular season games, so there is no edge there.  Brian Boucher got injured, but the Flyers didn't lose anything with Michael Leighton in net. 

The last time the Flyers played the Canadiens in the playoffs, they handled them easily.  But the goaltender then was Carey Price, and now it is Jaroslav Halak.  Montreal also beat two tougher opponents to get here.  Philadelphia has home ice advantage, but except for the San Jose Sharks, that has meant nothing.  Both teams have an equal claim to being the "team of destiny," but I'll go with the hot goaltender to win in six games.

San Jose-Chicago

Love that Pavelski, Clowe, and Setoguchi.  The Sharks are now their team, not Thornton-Marleau-Heatley, who returned from their vacation in the first round and actually contributed to the defeat of Detroit.  It is the first three, the Blackhawks have to stop, not the three fly-by-nights.  But the key to this series is going to be defense. 

If the Blackhawks can park their forwards in front of Evgeni Nabokov and can't be moved out of there, like they did with Vancouver, this series will be over early.  Chicago is the better overall team, especially on defense, though Dan Boyle, for the Sharks is equal to any Chicago defenceman.  Despite the drive of Pavelski, Clowe, and Setoguchi, who are now the Sharks No. 1 line, they are not going to be enough, especially if you-know-who decides to take another vacation. 

Home ice was a disadvantage in the regular season games between them, and the Sharks have it.  Goaltending won't be much of a difference in this series.  Chicago will reach the finals in six or five games.