Playing Pepper 2010: Cleveland Indians

With my wife being an Ohio native as I noted before, both the Reds and Indians come under some scrutiny in this house.  With the Indians in the AL, I don't keep an eye on them quite as closely, but like to see them do well.  Lately, though, that's been a little problematic.

For the first time in this series, not one but two bloggers will be taking on the now-familiar questions.  Nino from The Tribe Daily and Tony from Indians Prospect Insider fill us in on what to expect for the Tribe this season.

TD: It wouldn't be fair to give the Indians offseason a grade. They didn't do much, but they weren't going to from the get-go. Their objective this offseason was to bring in some veterans to fill backup roles and possibly grab a cheap starter if the situation was right. They will take a chance on Mitch Talbot in the rotation, but he can easily be let go if that doesn't work out. All the big moves that Cleveland made were made last summer.

IPI: It is tough to give a grade because anyone who expected the Indians to do anything as far as spending any money this past offseason was thinking more with their hearts and not their minds.  When the Indians traded Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez back in July of 2009, two guys who were relatively cheap for 2010, it was a clear sign that no money would be spent this offseason.  Fans always want their teams to be very active during the hot stove season, but while the Indians were very quiet, it may have been the best decision in the long run to go with their promising youth rather than spend money on marginal stop gap free agents.  So while they didn't do much on the free agent side of things, I think their belief in their farm system is starting to show and they appear committed to giving the kids a chance to compete this coming season.  With youth will come a lot of growing pains, but with talented youth sometimes it can bring a strong energy to the team which makes it perform better than it should maybe a year ahead of schedule (like the Indians in 2004).

C70: What is the key to success for 2010?

TD: I define this year's team and their success not by their record, but by their growth. This is a young team with a new coaching staff and they have a lot of questions to answer. The key to finding that success will be answering a majority of those questions and how much they grow as a team. I don't think anyone expects them to contend for the division, even though the Central is a dogfight, but it would be a bonus if they did.

IPI: Without a doubt it is the pitching, and more specifically the starting pitching.  The lineup is solid has a lot of upside, and the bullpen is full of good young arms, but the rotation is the biggest question mark.  When your #1 starter, Jake Westbrook, is a guy who has not thrown a pitch in the big leagues in almost two years, you are really walking a fine line this season in the starting pitching department.  No one has any clue what to expect from the Jeckyl and Hyde pitcher that is Fausto Carmona, and while Justin Masterson looks promising as a mid-rotation starter no one knows how he will respond to a full year in the rotation.  The Indians have some guys trying to hang around like Mitch Talbot and Jeremy Sowers for the backend of the rotation, and while both may have a leg up to round out the rotation out of spring training because they are out of options, the Indians have some nice young depth with left-handers David Huff and Aaron Laffey as well as right-handers Carlos Carrasco and Hector Rondon who should all see significant time in Cleveland during the 2010 season and be core pieces of the rotation the next 4-5 years.  If this rotation is some how able to consistently give six quality innings each night, they could be the key to the Indians being a surprise team in the AL Central this year.

C70: What will be the team's strength?

TD: Their talented core of position players, something they do already have in place. Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo make up a nice solid starting foundation for the top of the lineup. If Michael Brantley demonstrates the ability to take over leadoff, then they'll make for a great middle of the lineup with Sizemore shifting down to third. They are also the core defensively with Cabrera and Sizemore being the best defensive players on the team and Choo having the best outfield arm.

IPI: Without a doubt, the lineup.  Assuming everyone is healthy, the Indians have a nice outfield with All Star Grady Sizemore patrolling center field, arguably the best right fielder in baseball last year in Shin-Soo Choo, and an emerging young talent in Michael Brantley in left field who makes a lot of people think he could be a spark plug at the top of the Indians lineup for many years a la how Kenny Lofton was in the 90s.  They have an All Star caliber young shortstop in Asdrubal Cabrera, a nice young powerful bat at first base in Matt LaPorta, the steady Jhonny Peralta at third base, and designated hitter Travis Hafner is supposedly back and healthy.  The two question marks with the offense are second baseman Luis Valbuena and catcher Lou Marson, but with uber-catching prospect Carlos Santana waiting in the wings the catching position should be fine for the next 5-6 years.  The Indians may ultimately settle in with a platoon at second base at some point in the season with Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald.

C70: What could be their Achilles' heel?

IPI: Youth.  With so much youth in the rotation, bullpen, and lineup, as well as all the reserves who would be the first reinforcements also being so young and inexperienced it should make for a very volatile season, but a fun roller coaster ride nonetheless.

C70: Who will be the team's MVP?

TD: That's a tough question because you assume that if Grady Sizemore is healthy, he should put up the best numbers as should Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera. Grady Sizemore is this team's MVP based on the fact that when he's on, this lineup is much different. If he can return to form, he will be the MVP. It would be nice however if someone else stepped up and produced on a All-Pro level. Names in that group would be Fausto Carmona, Matt LaPorta, and Jhonny Peralta. 

IPI: Asdrubal Cabrera.  If he were playing in New York, he'd be a perenniel All Star.  He hits for average, has some occasional pop, runs well, is extremely intelligent, and is a wizard with the glove at short stop.

C70: Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

IPI: Michael Brantley is still considered a rookie, so I would say he has the best chance to impact this team because he is for all intents and purposes written in pen into left field to start the season.  His speed, on-base ability and defense can impact a game, and he could finish the year hitting around .300 and score 80-90 runs, steal 35-45 bases, and pay exceptional defense in left field.  Now, for a player who has yet to get a major league at bat or pitch an inning in the bigs?  My biggest impact would be right-handed pitcher Hector Rondon.  A lively fastball and solid secondary stuff, he could settle in as a reliable 3rd or 4th starter, or if moved to the bullpen could be a dominating backend reliever.

C70: Who will be the breakout player for the team?

TD: He may not win a rotation spot out of spring due to the fact that he's got options and other players don't, but I think David Huff will establish himself when he does get the rotation crack he deserves. Huff came on strong at the end of 2009 and has often been compared to Cliff Lee in terms of his pitch selection and production. I think Huff is primed to build on that success as he's gone through the struggles young players typically go through. Some pitchers have success then regress before they take that next step, and others struggle early and then take a step and improve. I think David Huff fits that mold of struggling and then taking off.

IPI: Michael Brantley.  He just has the right mindset to handle the ups and downs of this game as even though he is only 22 years old you would think he was an 11-year veteran.  He can impact a game in so many ways, and should be a catalyst at the top of the lineup for years to come. 

C70: Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

IPI: This is a tough one as no one was really great last year, or may have over-achieved.  If someone was to see a decline in their performance, my guess is third-baseman Jhonny Peralta who may have trouble adjusting to third base full time and his contract situation along with trade rumors may affect him.

C70: Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

TD: Kerry Wood is going to be dangled because of his contract, unless he's downright perfect. Jake Westbrook will also be dangled if he proves he is healthy by the trade deadline because he is a pending free agent. Jhonny Peralta will probably also be dangled and probably is the most likeliest to be dealt due to the fact he has a friendly contract and is still young. I could see all three getting dealt depending on the Tribe's situation near the deadline.

IPI: Assuming the Indians are not in contention in July, it is almost a certainty that third baseman Jhonny Peralta, right-handed closer Kerry Wood, and right-handed starter Jake Westbrook will all be on the block.  All are free agents at the end of the 2010 season (The Indians have an option on Peralta, but may not pick it up), so going by past history they will look to pick up some good value for them so they don't leave for nothing.

C70: What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

IPI: 79-83, 3rd place.  More importantly they will have played 162 games to better establish themselves and see what they have going into 2011 when they are expected to contend for the division title again.

I appreciate Nino and Tony taking the time to talk about the Indians.  The Indians are in the right division to make a quick move up the standings, but with their young talent coming along, sounds like that move might not be this year.  Then again, it is the AL Central....