Can the Toronto Raptors Get To 50 Wins without a Trade?

To start the 2009-10 season, Bryan Colangelo made the bold prediction that the Toronto Raptors would win 50 games this year. Not so long ago, Colangelo softened that statement to say there was always a range and he was looking for his team to win 47 to 52 games.

So do the Raptors have a legitimate shot at a 50-win season?

After beating Sacramento over the weekend, the Toronto Raptors are now 28-23 and tied for fifth-place in the East. At a winning percentage of just 55, the straight line approach says the Raptors are on track to win exactly 45 games.

But when judging the Raptors after 50 games, it becomes obvious these Raptors haven’t been playing at the same pace all season.

Games	Record	Points For	Points Against	Diff
1-10	5-5	106.9	105.9	1.0
11-20	2-8	103.7	116.0	-12.3
21-30	6-4	100.8	100.9	-0.1
31-40	7-3	102.6	98.3	4.3
41-50	7-3	108.1	104.8	3.3
Total	27-23	104.4	105.2	-0.8

In their last two 10-game stretches, the Raptors have gone 7-3, and since their low point of 11-17, the Raptors are winning 74 percent of their games, a winning rate which has been oft-quoted as second-best in the NBA over that period.

When looking at the .500 Raptors as they approached their 44th game of the season against the Milwaukee Bucks, it was obvious the team's season was at a crossroad. The schedule has turned in the Raptors' favor, and they had better win games now, or any hopes of a successful season would be gone.

And the Raptors responded by winning six of their next seven games to go 7-3 over there last 10 and bring their record to 27-23.

The next 10 games from 51-60 are nearly as favorable to the Raptors as the last 10, with seven home dates and two games against New Jersey. Another 7-3 stretch of games is needed if the Raptors are to do better than the 45 wins predicted by the straight-line assessment of their season.

The route to a 47-win season only requires the Raptors to finish out the year going 7-3, then 6-4, 5-5, and finally taking the last two games against Detroit and New York. A feat the Raptors should be able to accomplish without any major changes to their current roster by trade deadline day.

To reach Bryan Colangelo’s initial prediction of 50 wins, the Raptors will have some tough obstacles to overcome. The Raptors will need to average a 7-3 mark over each 10 game stretch left in the season and win their last two games for a 72 winning percentage. Now that’s tough!

In the games from 61-70, the Raptors face a tough four-game western road trip and have Sacramento the night after playing the Lakers. They’ll need to win one of those games of the back-to-back and beat Utah at the Air Canada Centre if they want to go 7-3 in this stretch of games.

The games from 71-80 are double tough and predicted at 5-5 for a reason. For the Raptors to win seven of these games, they’ll need to win at least one of the Miami, Charlotte back-to-back road games and take two of the games from Denver or Boston at the ACC, or Atlanta or Cleveland on the road. A 7-3 record in this stretch of games without a major improvement to the Raptors roster by the trade deadline seems unlikely.

While Colangelo isn’t wrong to still be predicting the Raptors could win 50 games this season, his team will have to continue to get better if it’s to fulfill that prediction.

If Colangelo really believes his team could be a 52-game winner, there must be some deal he believes could happen soon to dramatically improve his roster.