X Marks the Spot: Fantasy Owners Shouldn't Overlook Nick Markakis

Eric StashinFeb 9, 2010

I have to ask, why do fantasy owners downgrade Nick Markakis on their draft boards? Is it because that he hasn’t fully realized the potential that everyone thought he would? Is it because he’s a steady option that you know what you are going to get?

Let’s just look at his 2009 statistics:

642 At-Bats
.293 Batting Average (188 Hits)
18 Home Runs
101 RBI
94 Runs
6 Stolen Bases
.347 On Base Percentage
.453 Slugging Percentage
.323 Batting Average on Balls in Play

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What exactly is wrong with that line? Is it the power? Well, I truly believe that number is an aberration, not the rule. Just look at his HR/FB rates the past four seasons:

2006 - 13.1%
2007 - 11.6%
2008 - 12.6%
2009 - 8.0%

Which of these things are not like the others? It’s hard for me to believe that his power, now at 26-years old, has dropped like that, especially when his flyballs were at a career high (40.6 percent). Throw in his doubles totals from the past three years (43, 48 and 45) and there are a lot of reasons to believe he should enjoy a renaissance in the power department.

Would I expect him to be a 30 HR guy? No, but he certainly should be in the low-to-mid 20s in ‘10.

He’s a career .298 hitter, so he wasn’t very far off last season. In fact, his worst average was the .291 he hit in his rookie year and his best was .306 in ‘08. He’s been extremely consistent, so why should we expect anything different?

The runs and RBI are a function of a lineup, something the Orioles have done a great job of improving, both through developing young talents and supplementing it with veteran free agents. The days of it being Markakis, Brian Roberts and everyone else are certainly well in the past.

Now, the lineup is fairly loaded from top to bottom, with Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins being brought in to help supplement Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, and Adam Jones. It’s a solid group of guys that should allow him to both drive in and score close to 100 runs.

No, he doesn’t have elite speed, but he’s shown the potential to steal double-digit bases in the past. He set a career high in ‘07 with 18 and also had 10 in ‘08. It’s certainly not a definite that he reaches that level, but that’s his upside.

Let’s take a look at what I’d expect from him in 2010:

.300 (186-620), 22 HR, 100 RBI, 95 R, 9 SB, .333 BABIP, .363 OBP, .487 SLG

He’s a player that contributes across the board, so what exactly is it that fantasy owners don’t like? The .300 average? The 100/100 potential? The home runs with a little bit of speed?

We know what he is and for some reason people consider that a bad thing. Maybe because he’s not elite in any one category, but he contributes everywhere and that’s alright with me.

He’s certainly a player I want on my teams and one that I consider a low-end No. 1 outfielder (I have him ranked ninth) and worth taking in the late fourth or early fifth round (his ADP is right around 50 and is the twelfth outfielder off the board).

What about you? Is Markakis a player you’d like to own? Would you take him at the end of the fourth round?

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