Predictions for UFC 109 and the Battle Between the “two Geezers”

Saturday’s event at Mandalay Bay won’t be anything worth writing to a relative about. In fact, it should be understood as a lighter appetizer for the real big show happening hours later in Miami, Super Bowl XXXXIV. Apart from the bout involving Marquardt, few fights will feature top contenders and due to injuries, the UFC’s Feb. 6th gala in Vegas has become much less interesting. Keeping in mind the main event was originally expected to have Anderson Silva face Vitor Belfort, in addition to Lil’ Nog go against Brandon Vera. Now, 109 features Mark Coleman in a main event. Does his insurance actually cover that level of risk?

Starting with the main event, the LHW bout opposing two guys in their mid-forties that have already fought their best fights. Years ago.  Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture, coming off a boring decision win over Brandon Vera, will face Mark ‘The Hammer’ Coleman, a UFC legend in the late 90s up until early in the last decade. The odds are overwhelmingly in Couture’s favour (-400 to Coleman’s +300), and it would be most unlikely that Couture didn’t win, at least by UD. Just looking at Coleman’s gait as he ran for the UFC promo, it seems obvious his knees and shins are in bad shape. Unless his cardio improved so much you’d think the fight actually took place in 1998 (then discussed for the first time), Coleman will be defeated, and it wouldn’t be surprising that Couture did it on the ground, to make a point about Coleman’s wrestling. Or just because he can. Subs former Gillette spokesman in the second round, if he doesn’t knock him out in the first.

The bout offering the highest ranked fighters will feature #2 MW Nate Marquardt fighting #6 Chael Sonnen. Though on paper it looks like a close match, Marquardt’s incredible strength, cardio and wrestling will prove unstoppable for Sonnen. Sonnen’s skills are very good, but Marquardt’s are that much better. Lines are rightfully heavily favouring Marquardt (-450) over Sonnen (+325). Although Sonnen would like nothing more than chip away at his opponent for three rounds, Marquardt will either test his jaw decisively late in the first round or submit him in the third. It shouldn’t go to a decision.

Other top ten fighters featured on the main card will be #6 WW Paulo Thiago pitted against #7 Mike Swick. Thiago’s great grappling (black belt BJJ) and judo skills (black belt) will destabilize Swick’s striking attempts. Never forgetting Thiago has been hit by harder strikers than Swick in the past (Fitch). Swick’s strategy will be simple, that of avoiding going on the ground, which always puts someone at an immediate disadvantage. Lines on this are puzzling, Swick (-220) a solid favourite to Thiago (+175). Odds are that were Swick to lose this fight, he would likely drop out of the top ten in his division.

Middleweight Brazilian BJJ superstar Damian Maia (#4) will face Dan Miller in the other lopsided MW bout featured on the main card. Two black belt BJJ guys. An ego match for Miller, and a chance to get back on the proverbial horse for Maia, who thankfully didn’t lose his ability to read nor sit up straight after suffering a devastating standing KO to Marquardt, clocking in less than 30 seconds after the opening bell. So, which black belt is darker? French contemporary painter Pierre Soulages refers to this colour as “outrenoir”. The colour found on Maia’s belt (-400). Unless Miller (+300) rocks Maia (it has happened) to the point he forgets his ground wizardry, the lighter shade of black gets subbed before the third round.

The main card bookend will suitably feature two over-the-hill fighters, as WW Matt Serra faces off against Frank Trigg. Serra has dropped off the map since losing to St-Pierre and Hughes. He puts on a show once a year, and this year’s grand Serra cru is Trigg. Trigg, on the other and unexpected hand, signed a four-fight deal with the UFC not so long ago. His initial bout turned out to be a very bad outing, beaten silly early in the first round by Koscheck. Serra (-140) seems more within his reach, though Trigg (+110) remains the slight underdog in the fight. Trigg will spar, but Serra will be more accurate. Serra’s ground will prove to be good enough early in the engagement to keep this a stand up affair for the majority of the three rounds. Serra wins by decision.

Lines from Betus.com

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