Manny Ramirez Won't be Red Sox in 2009

   First of all, I’m a huge fan of Manny Ramirez. A “Manny-enabler,” I think Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe called people like me, fans who look the other way at some of the things Manny says and does, and wildly support him anyway.

   Shaughnessy, of course, is terribly jealous of a simple guy like Manny making $160 million while the brilliant guy that he is, Shaughnessy, makes considerably less. That’s grist for another mill, however.

   But as enthusiastic as I am about Manny, who I have watched ever since I first saw that wonderful swing while he was a kid with the Indians, I’m pretty much here to bury him and not praise him.

   I still enjoy watching him. Who else can make a running catch, run up the outfield wall, slap a high-five with a fan and then turn and fire a guy out at first for a double play?

   Many times, his hitting is still a thing of wonder, and I’m glad he has gotten his due for his work ethic from sportswriters, who often aren’t crazy about players who don’t follow their perception of what athletes should sound like and look like.

   And it’s not the fact that he just had an altercation with the traveling secretary, who couldn’t get Manny what he wanted. In the world of the pampered superstar, people who have been held to a different standard from the rest of us for almost their whole lives, pushing a simple, regular human with a less-than-glamorous job is not a big deal. OK?

   I don’t think the Red Sox should, or will, take their $20 million option on Ramirez next year.

   Not because Manny is Manny either. Because if Manny were still Manny at the plate, the only place in the diamond he really helps a team, then the option should be picked up. But he’s not.

   Manny is in decline. And the Sox can get a whole lot of hitter for $20 million next winter. Maybe even two. And their farm system bubbles with talent.

   The wonderfully boyish, some say childish, Manolito will be 37 for most of the 2009 season.

   In his age 36 season (he turned that age on May 30th), Manny is averaging .289, is slugging .519, and has an on-base percentage of .378. On average, these are good numbers.

    For a right-handed power hitter playing half his games at Fenway Park, they’re OK. For a guy making $20 million, they look less impressive.

    In his first six seasons with Boston vs. his last one and one-half-seasons, Ramirez:

    Averaged 39 homers; averages 24 homers, a drop of 38 percent.

   Averaged 119 RBI; averages 93 RBI, a drop of 22 percent.

   Averaged a .315 batting average; averaging .293, a drop of 7 percent.

   Walked an average of 86 times; averaging 70 walks, a drop of 19 percent.

   Had an on-base percentage of .419; has averaged .387, a drop of 7 percent.

   Had a slugging average of .610; slugging .503 the past year and one-half, a drop of 17.5 percent.

    According to the incredible baseball-reference.com, Manny’s age 35 season was similar to the age 35 seasons of Ken Griffey Jr., Jeff Bagwell, Frank Robinson, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Willie Mays, Jim Thome and Mickey Mantle.

   Incredible company. But in age 37 seasons:

   Mantle retired.

   Thome is hitting .227, albeit for a first-place team. Manny will never hit .227, even if he plays to 45.

    Mays hit 23 homers, drove in 79 runs and hit .289 (with a 156 OPS + (100 being league average) in the pitching year of 1968. But remember, he was Willie Mays. Manny, and pretty much every other player in baseball history, is not Willie Mays.

   Chipper is amazing in his age 36 season, but he is often hurt.

   For the 2006 Yankees, Sheffield played in 39 games, hit six homers, and drove in 25 runs.

   Thomas played in 34 games, hit 12 homers, drove in 26 runs, but hit .219.

   Bonds was NL MVP in his age 37 season, 2002, hitting 46 homers, hitting .370 and posting an incredible 1.381 OPS (268 OPS +). How did he do it?

   Robinson, one of the top 10 players in baseball history when all is taken into account, hit 30 homers and drove in 97, with an OPS+ of 150 in his age 37 season in the still-pitcher-friendly year of 1973.

   Bagwell got 100 at-bats, hit 3 homers and slugged .380, his last season in 2005. With his injuries, even those paltry numbers were a testament to his grit.

   Junior, the player who Ramirez most closely simulates at age 35, hit 30 homers, drove in 93 runs and had an OPS+ of 119 in his age 37 year, 2007.

   If Manny can duplicate the good age 37 seasons of Griffey and Robinson, he’s still not worth close to $20 million, even in today’s market.

   
   The Red Sox have made many astute moves in the Theo Epstein era. Many of the best have been ending relationships with iconic stars. Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon and Nomar Garciaparra are three of the best players in recent Sox history, yet Theo moved on.

   And Manny won’t be walking through that Red Sox clubhouse door next spring. He’ll be playing left field or DHing for the Yankees at the salary he’s making now.

   He’ll be Manny, being Hank Steinbrenner’s latest overpayment.