The King Felix Extension

The Mariners just reached agreement with “King” Felix Hernandez on a five-year $78 million extension through the 2014.  The extension takes Hernandez through not only his remaining arbitration years, but also his first three free agent years.

In theory, this is a great, great move for the Mariners.  They have locked up one of the very best young pitchers in baseball through age 28 and gotten Felix to forgo the possibility of a C.C. Sabathia/Johan Santana free agent contract a couple of years from now.

In practice, however, I’m not so sure.  The thing that concerns me is all the innings Felix has thrown through the tender age of 23.  In the last five seasons from age 19 through 23, Hernandez has thrown 172.1, 191, 190.1, 200.2 and a whopping 238.2 innings in 2009.  That’s a lot of innings, and history very clearly suggests that pitchers who throw a lot of innings before age 25 don’t have long-term success (Dwight “Doc” Gooden, Larry Dierker, Brett Saberhagen and, more recently, Dontrelle Willis are several good examples).

Felix has a big body, which is good (big body pitchers as a group last longer than smaller body pitchers).  Of course, so does Dontrelle Willis.  Also, Hernandez’s innings pitched totals weren’t particularly high until this past season.  However, he was second behind only Justin Verlander in all of MLB in pitches thrown in 2009.

If Felix stays healthy, it’s a great deal for both the M’s and for Felix.  If he’s healthy at the end of the contract, he’ll still only be 28 years old, and he can get his gi-normous free agent contract then.  However, the contract still contains a high degree of risk for the Mariners, for the reason stated above.