2007 NBA Draft: Assessing the Biggest Trades a Year Later

As the 2008 NBA Draft approaches, NBA fans are bombarded by trade rumors.  Though most never happen (Warriors' fans are praying that Ford’s Brandan Wright and the No. 14 pick for Yi is one of those rumors), there seem to always be a few that do. 

I thought I would take a look back at the three biggest of draft day trades of last year and try to find a winner and a loser for each deal.  The draft saw three 20-plus per game scorers switch zip codes, so let’s get this started.

The Deal

The Charlotte Bobcats trade the rights to the No. 8 pick (Brandan Wright) for Jason Richardson and the rights to the No. 36 pick (Jermareo Davidson).  The Golden State Warriors receive a $9.9 million trade exemption.

Why the Bobcats did it:

Michael. Jeffery. Jordan.  Jordan’s track record for personnel decisions is about as good as Kwame Brown’s career has been.  Besides drafting uber-bust Brown No. 1 (and subsequently killing his confidence by verbally abusing him in practice), he also traded a first-round pick for the mediocre, immature Brendon Haywood. 

It also includes trading for an aging Jerry Stackhouse at the expense of an up-and-comer named Rip Hamilton.  Let’s not forget about him drafting Jared Jeffries and Juan Dixon in the top 20 of the 2002 draft. 

Before the draft, Jordan made it clear that he had no interest in waiting around for a project.  So, he bit on the first offer for a proven veteran, even though it cost him a blue chip talent (from his Alma Mater). 

Did I forget to mention that Richardson is owed roughly $40 mil over the next three years?

Why the Warriors did it:

As popular as Richardson was in Oakland, Mullin’s poor decisions to invest big money in Mike Dunleavy, Adonal Foyle, Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, and Jason Richardson seemed destined to keep the Warriors in salary cap hell until, at least, 2010. 

With promising young players Andris Biendris and Monta Ellis about to demand big contracts, Mullin was determined to open up the salary cap space necessary to resign them. 

Amazingly, Mullin was able to move the contracts of Dunleavy, Murphy, and Fisher, but he knew that the only way he could stay under the cap and re-sign Ellis and Biendris was to move Richardson (and the $50 million he owed him).  

He also felt Ellis and Kelenna Azubuike could fill the 20 ppg that they would lose without Richardson.

How the Deal looks a year later: 

Michael Jordan was quoted as saying that he thought that Richardson’s “clutchness” would help the young Bobcats win the close games necessary to make them a contender for the Eastern Conference Playoffs.  A closer look at the statistics shows that Richardson was below average in “clutch” situations (under five minutes, neither team ahead by more than five). 

82games.com found that his replacement, Ellis, was a superior clutch performer, and even Azubuike, who made less than one-tenth of what Richardson makes, was an equally effective crunch time player. 

To his credit, Richardson stayed healthy for all 82 games and scored over twenty points per game (21.2).  However, his production did not equate to more wins for the Cats.  They went 32-50, which was one game worse than their 33-49 last year.

The Warriors benefitted from this move for three reasons.  First, with Richardson out of the way, Nelson could give the reigns to superstar in the making, Monta Ellis.  Ellis started 72 games this year (his most ever) and was firmly entrenched as the Warriors top shooting guard. 

He paid Nellie back by shooting 53.1 percent (as compared to Richardson’s 44 percent) and scoring over twenty per.  Many Warriors' fans worried that Ellis wouldn’t get the touches necessary to bloom into a true star, but with Richardson gone he was able to do just that.

Secondly, Wright looks like a hell of a prospect.  Though Nellie played him sparingly (go figure), while on the floor, Wright showed flashes of brilliance that has the Bay Area buzzing.  Though he still has much to prove, he has won fans in the media, too. 

ESPN Draft Guru David Thorpe had this to say about Wright during the season, “I watched Wright's entire pregame workout in Oakland last week, and I loved what I saw. The drills were spirited and smart, and Wright oozes skill and talent. On another team, I think he would stand out in this class.”

Though this seemed to be an excellent move from a basketball perspective, it was also a great move from a business angle.  The trade exemption gives Mullin the luxury to be much more aggressive in this upcoming draft.  He can use the exemption to take back a big, unattractive contract, which increases the likelihood of teams to deal with the Warriors. 

An example of a potential deal would be, and this is pure speculation, Memphis trading the No. 5 pick and Brian Cardinal for either the Warriors first or second rounder.  Since Memphis has struggled getting blue chip players to commit to coming, this trade could be attractive to both teams. 

If Mullin elects not to use the exemption, he can just let it expire and use the extra salary cap space to re-sign existing free agents or sign new players.

Winner: Warriors.  They get salary cap flexibility, a blue chip talent, and added touches for a rising star, while Charlotte gets an overpriced, aging spot-up shooter.  This one was easy.

The Deal

The Seattle Supersonics trade Ray Allen and the rights to the No. 35 pick (Glen “Big Baby” Davis) to the Boston Celtics for the rights to Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and the rights to the No. 5 pick (Jeff Green).

Why the Celtics Did It: 

The Celtics were at a crossroads.  They had enough young talent (Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo) and attractive contracts (Theo Ratliff, Szczerbiak) to make attractive trade partners for mediocre teams looking to dump their veteran superstars. On the other hand, Paul Pierce still had enough trade value for the Celtics to get quality young talent from. 

Luckily for Celtics fans, Ainge chose the former and built around Pierce.  Though Allen was 31 at the time and was owed almost 60 million, Ray Allen was still a fantastic shooter who could spread the floor.  Glen Davis, while an afterthought, was a winner in college and displayed toughness and hustle at LSU.

Why the Sonics Did It:

The Sonics also had a decision to make.  They could have kept Allen, tried to re-sign free agent Rashard Lewis (which we know now would have cost them over $100 million), draft Kevin Durant, and hope that this team could compete in the loaded Western Conference without a decent point guard or center. 

GM Sam Presti decided that this wasn’t a good idea and decided to sell Allen while he still had value and let Lewis walk. 

Though Szczerbiak and West are both decent players, the real allure of this deal was their price tags.  They shipped Allen’s almost $60 mil for only about $30 mil back.  Presti also decided that Jeff Green would be a great long-term sidekick for Durant. 

Also, the departure of Allen told Durant that he would have to be the man for the Sonics.

How the Deal looks a year Later:

It is safe to say that it worked out pretty well for Boston.  The prospect of playing with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce gave Kevin Garnett the incentive to come to Boston. 

Once the KG trade happened and Ainge made a few smart signings (Eddie House, James Posey, P.J. Brown), Boston cruised to the best record in the league and made an incredible run to the NBA Championship. Glen Davis also turned out to be a solid contributor down low.

For the Sonics, I think Sam Presti will tell you this trade did exactly what he wanted it to.  They traded Szczerbiak and West at the trade deadline for Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, and Adrian Griffin.  Though they will contribute nothing to the Sonics on the court, their miniscule, expiring contracts will help the Sonics cut salary even more (owed a combined $6 mil).

As for Jeff Green, he had a very solid rookie year.  He was named to the 1st team all-rookie team.  He had nice averages of 10.5 points and 4.7 boards per game.  He also contributes hard-nosed defense.  He does not look like a star in the making, but he looks like a solid contributor who will probably be about a 30/35 minute per game player for a long time.

Winner:  Celtics.  I think everyone knows why.  However, I think this was still a good deal for Seattle.  Though many of their fans did not support the move, the Sonics will be one of the only teams with significant cap space next season.  However, the Sonics should have used the No. 5 pick on Brandan Wright, who is a better prospect at this point. 

The Deal

The New York Knicks trade Steve Francis and Channing Frye to the Portland Trail Blazers for Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, Fred Jones, and the rights to No. 53 pick (Demetris Nichols).

Why the Knicks did it:

Because, it’s the Knicks (at least, the Isaiah-led Knicks).  Strangely, this trade was lauded by all the talking heads on ESPN, especially Stephen A. Smith, because the trade netted them a “superstar”. 

Randolph’s statistics have been impressive throughout his career (16 and 8 for his career), and Isaiah stated that Randolph’s low post dominance would pay huge dividends in an Eastern Conference that was wide open. 

If Randolph produced in the power forward heavy Western Conference, it seemed likely that he could continue his dominance in the East and potentially be New York’s first all-star since Patrick Ewing (not really, but it feels that way). 

They only had to give up malcontent Steve Francis (and his two-year, roughly $40 million dollar deal) and somewhat promising, 2005 Lottery Pick Channing Frye.  Thomas felt that even if Frye fulfilled his full potential, he likely wouldn’t be any better than Randolph was at the time of the trade.

Why the Blazers did it:

Zach Randolph was the last of the “Jail Blazers” (Rasheed Wallace, Damon Stoudamire, Ruben “No Means Yes” Patterson, Qyntel “Where Are They Now” Woods, Bonzi “The Fans Don’t Matter to Us” Wells, and, of course, Steve Kerr) who were wildly unpopular among Blazers fans and David Stern. 

The idea of having a young, impressionable Greg Oden within shouting distance of Zach Randolph terrified Pritchard.  Pritchard also wanted no part of paying Randolph the last four years of his six-year, $84 million dollar deal.  Though the Blazers ended up buying out Francis for over $30 million, when your owner is $16.8 billion man Paul Allen, 30 mil is worth not having to deal with Francis’ crap. 

Channing Frye was, and still is, an interesting prospect, but this deal was about finishing the overhaul that Pritchard and Allen started when Pritchard was signed in 2007.

How the Deal looks a year later:

Sorry Mr. Walsh, Isaiah left you with one more mess to clean up.  Randolph, completely unsurprisingly, did not fit well together with incumbent big man Eddy Curry (except potentially at the Coney Island Hot Dog Eating Competition).  The two New York bigs, who are owed a shocking $80 million over the next three years, were absolutely worthless defensively. 

When your frontline averages .69 blocks per game, it is clear that you have a problem protecting the rim.  The combo worked so horribly that backup David Lee averaged more minutes than Curry and almost as many as Randolph.  Isaiah Thomas simply could not afford to play Curry and Z-Bo together, because of their defensive deficiencies. 

Also, since Curry is worthless without the ball in his hands, he had his worst statistical season since 2002 (his second year).  Things were so bad that Thomas was openly trying to trade one or both of his big men before the trade deadline.  Walsh will have a hell of a time unloading either of these guys anytime soon.

For Portland, the deal worked out exactly how they expected.  Though Oden was lost for the season, due to offseason micro fracture surgery, second-year man LaMarcus Aldridge flourished without Z-Bo, averaging 17.8 and 7.6 boards.  With Oden coming back next year and Portland sporting a better image, Pritchard and Allen could not be happier about how things are going. 

In the case of Frye, he had a sub-par year, and was stuck behind Joel Przybilla and Aldridge.  With Oden coming back this year, expect Frye to find a new home when his contract is up.

Winner: Do I have to even say it?  Isaiah gambles on another player with a big name and a massive contract, and it blows up in his face again.  The Knicks will spend this summer begging teams to take either Randolph or Curry, while the Blazers look to a future full of hope.