2008 Wimbledon Picks: Roger Federer Will Get His Revenge

Being that I was pretty successful with my French Open picks, I've decided to make my predictions for Wimbledon as well.  First, here's how I did at Roland Garros...

1st Round: 47 correct out of 64

2nd Round: 19 correct out of 32

3rd Round: 7 correct out of 16

4th Round: 5 correct out of 8

Quarters: 3 correct out of 4

Semis: 2 correct out of 2

Finals: 1 correct out of 1

And now here are my 127 picks for Wimbledon with explanations for every match.

FIRST ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Dominik Hrbaty

This is a tough first round match for the world’s number one.  Hrbaty holds a career 2-0 record against Federer, but those wins came on carpet and hard courts in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  And this is Wimbledon, where Fed hasn’t lost since Saddam Hussein was in power.

Robin Soderling def. Kevin Kim

Soderling reached the third round last year, while Kim hasn’t played a Tour match this season.

Kei Nishikori def. Marc Gicquel

Gicquel hasn’t won a grass match all year, while Nishikori just took a set off of Rafael Nadal at the Queen’s Club event.

Gael Monfils (30) def. Chris Guccione

Monfils should be able to keep the momentum going from his semi-final run at the French.  He’s reached the third round at the All England Club in two of the past three years.

Lleyton Hewitt (20) def. Robin Haase

The 2002 champ hasn’t dropped a first round match here since 1999, while Haase is playing in his first Grass Championships.

Albert Montanes def. Carlos Berlocq

Montanes hasn’t won a match here since 2004, but that’s better than his opponent who has never turned the trick and is 3-13 this season.

Simone Bolelli def. Alex Bogdanovic

Bogdanovic has lost six straight opening round matches at Wimbleon and he’s 0-3 on Tour so far this year, so I don’t think he’ll get off the shnide against 47^thranked Bolelli, who got to the second round last year.

Fernando Gonzalez (15) def. Robby Ginepri

Gonzalez has beaten Ginepri three times in the past year; twice on grass at the 2007 Queen’s Club and Wimbledon, and just a few weeks ago at Roland Garros.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Evgeny Korolev

Berdych reached the quarters last year, while Korolev lost in the first round.

Alejandro Falla def. Victor Hanescu

Hanescu hasn’t played here since 2005, while Falla’s won his first round match three of the past four years.

Olivier Rochus def. Dudi Sela

Rochus has an 11-8 record at Wimbledon, while the Israeli is playing here for the first time.

Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Fernando Verdasco (22)

Kohlschreiber just reached the finals at Halle, beating four top 43 players along the way.  He also holds a 2-0 career record head-to-head with Verdasco.

Mario Ancic def. Michael Llodra (32)

Yet another difficult pairing for a seed.  Ancic has reached at least the fourth round in his last three Wimbledons and he beat Llodra in straights at a grass event in 2005.

Hyung-Taik Lee def. Philipp Petzschner

The qualifier has the advantage of playing on the All England Club grass this past week, but Lee is no slouch here; he reached the third round last year.

Igor Andreev def. Jiri Vanek

Andreev holds a 3-0 record against Vanek, but all those matches have been on clay.  Still, Vanek isn’t much better on grass; he’s 0-4 in his Wimbledon career.

David Ferrer (5) def. Sergiy Stakhovsky

Stakhovsky may be someone to watch out for if he qualifies for the U.S. Open.  He won a hard court event in Zagreb, Croatiaearlier this year, beating the likes of Ivo Karlovic, Janko Tipsarevic and Ivan Ljubicic.  But since then, he’s lost seven straight matches to guys mostly ranked 131 in the world or below, so I can’t quite pull the trigger on this upset.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Michael Berrer

Djokovic reached the semis last year, while Berrer only got to the second round.

Marat Safin def. Fabio Fognini

Safin beat Fognini rather easily on clay in 2006 and it should be the same result on grass.

Florent Serra def. Yen-Hsun Lu

These players have very similar resumes, but Serra reached the second round last year, while Lu hasn’t won a match at Wimbledon since 2005.

Andreas Seppi (29) def. Tobias Kamke

Seppi should be able to make it three straight first round victories against this lucky loser.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (21) def. Sam Querrey

Ferrero reached the quarters last year, while Querrey has never escaped the first round.

Alexander Peya def. Mischa Zverev

Peya is the only one of these twos to have won a match at The Championships and, as a qualifier, he has the added advantage of playing and winning on these courts this week.

Juan Martin Del Potro def. Pavel Snobel

Del Potro, who reached the second round here last year, should have enough to get by the qualifier.

Stanislas Wawrinka (13) def. Marcos Daniel

Wawrinka reached the third round in 2006, while Daniel has never won here.

Marcos Baghdatis (10) def. Steve Darcis

Baghdatis reached the semis in ’06 and followed that up with a quarter-finals appearance last year.  Meanwhile, Darcis has never even stepped onto the grass at the All England Club.

Thomas Johansson def. Vincent Spadea

This is a battle of two journeymen who haven’t had a lot of recent success at Wimbledon.  Johansson holds a 3-1 lifetime record against Spadea, including a straight sets victory in the second round of this event way back in 1998.

Igor Kunitsyn def. Thomaz Bellucci

Kunitsyn has at least played and won here before, while Belluci is making his first appearance.

Ivo Karlovic (18) def. Simon Stadler

Last year, the tall Croat beat Stadler on both hard courts and grass.

Feliciano Lopez (31) def. Brian Dabul

Lopez has a 14-6 record at Wimbledon, while Dabul has never played here before.

Roko Karanusic def. Luis Horna

Karanusic won more matches at Wimbledonin 2006 (1) than Horna has won in the past five years here (0).  Because of that, I’ll give the Croat the slight edge over the man who beat him on a hard court in 2005.

Filippo Volandri def. Bobby Reynolds

Neither of these players has won a grass court match this year, with Volandri not even participating in one, but I’ll give the Italian the nod here because he’s actually won at the All England Club before.

David Nalbandian (7) def. Frank Dancevic

Nalbandian beat Dancevic in four sets in the second round last year and he should do the same a little earlier in the tournament this time around.

Andy Roddick (6) def. Eduardo Schwank

The two-time finalist should have no problem with the Wimbledon rookie.

Janko Tipsarevic def. Thierry Ascione

Ascione beat Tipsarevic on carpet last year, but the Serb is more comfortable on grass, as proven by his fourth round finish in 2007.

Chris Eaton def. Boris Pashanski

Neither of these players has won a match in the main draw here, but at least the 659^th ranked player won a few in qualifying this week.

Dmitry Tursunov (25) def. Nicolas Mahut

Tursunov reached the Round of 16 in ’05 and ’06.  Mahut’s best finish is the third round.

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. Marcel Granollers-Pujol

No career Wimbledonwins between these two, so I’ll take the seeded Almagro because he was my big upset pick at the French and he came through for me.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez def. Izak Van der Merwe

In a battle between the two longest names in the draw, I’ll take the guy who’s actually won a match here before.

Rainer Schuettler def. Santiago Ventura

Venturabeat Schuettler on clay earlier this year, but I think the German native has the experience on grass to win this one.

James Blake (9) def. Christophe Rochus

Blakes has a 2-0 record against Rochus in his career, and while neither of those matchers were on grass, the American is a good enough all-around player to win this meeting.

Paul-Henri Mathieu (14) def. Oscar Hernandez

Mathieu had to overcome a two-set deficit to defeat Hernandez at this year’s French Open.  He shouldn’t have as much trouble beating the Spaniard at Wimbledon, where he reached the fourth round in 2007.

Frederico Gil def. Jeremy Chardy

Here’s another rematch of this year’s French.  Chardy won that meeting in straight sets, but I think Gil will get revenge on grass, where he’s been winning qualifying matches all week in both the singles and doubles events.

Edouard Roger-Vasselin def. Marin Cilic

The Frenchman reached the third round last year, while Cilic couldn’t win his first match.

Jarkko Nieminen (24) def. Wayne Odesnik

The 2006 quarterfinalist should be able to get past Odesnik, who is playing in his first Lawn Tennis Championships.

Ivan Ljubicic (26) def. Jurgen Melzer

Melzer beat Ljubicic in straights at the ’05 Championships, and while they’ve both dropped in the rankings since then, Melzer’s fallen further, while Ljubicic has reached the third round here the past two years.

Donald Young def. Jesse Levine

These two young Americans met three times in non-Tour events in the U.S. last year, with Young winning two of the meetings and dropping the third in two tiebreakers.  Despite the fact that Levine has the advantage of playing qualifiers here all week, I’m going to give the edge to Young because he knows how to beat Levine.

Arnaud Clement def. Jonas Bjorkman

Clement has won the last three meetings between these two, including an easy 6-2, 6-4 victory on grass last year, and while Bjorkman is 16-5 here since 2003, I think this is just a bad match-up for the Swede.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. Benjamin Becker

Davydenko has won more than twice as many matches as Becker’s played in this year.

Richard Gasquet (8) def. Mardy Fish

Last year’s semifinalist should be able to get past Fish, whose best finish is the third round.

Sebastien Grosjean def. Potito Starace

This is not the same Grosjean who reached back-to-back semis in ’03 and ’04, but he should have enough left in the tank to beat a guy who’s 0-4 here.

Kevin Anderson def. Agustin Calleri

Andersonis a young up-and-comer who has wins this year over not only Calleri, but Djokovic, Llodra and John Isner as well.  While all those victories came on hard courts, Andersondid also just win a challenger event on grass at Surbiton in Great Britain.  Meanwhile, Calleri hasn’t played a single match on grass this year.

Gilles Simon (28) def. Dawid Olejniczak

Simon won a match here last year and is playing relatively well this year with a 17-14 record, so he should be able to get past the qualifier.

Tommy Robredo (23) def. Kristof Vliegen

The number 18 player in the world beat Vliegen on a grass surface in The Netherlands last year.

Tommy Haas def. Guillermo Canas

Haas had a great 2007 reaching at least the fourth round at every major except the French, but then he missed the Australian and Roland Garros this year.  He’s lost the last four meetings with Canas, but those were all more than three years ago, and Haas just beat No. 16 Stepanek in Halle, Germany, while Canas hasn’t played a single grass event this year.

 Xavier Malisse def. Denis Gremelmayr

Malisse has really dropped in the rankings to 229 in the world, but he hasn’t lost a first round match at Wimbledon since 2003 and I don’t think it’ll happen this year against a guy who’s never played here before.

Andy Murray (12) def. Fabrice Santoro

Murraybeat Santoro 6-4, 6-2 on hard courts last year and has had success at his home nation’s Grand Slam since bursting on the scene three years ago.

Radek Stepanek (16) def. Jan Hernych

Stepanek is 2-0 against Hernych and has a better resume in London.

Nicolas Lapentti def. Viktor Troicki

Lapentti hasn’t lost his first match here since 2000.  Then again, he’s missed four Wimbledons in that time.  Still, he’s good enough to beat this young Serb who’s 4-9 this year.

Stefano Galvani def. Jamie Baker

Baker’s never won here, while Galvani has won in the qualifying event this week and in the main draw in 2003 and 2006.

Mikhail Youzhny (17) def. Sergio Roitman

This should be an easy one for Youzhny, who has made the Round of 16 four times.

Nicolas Kiefer (27) def. Julien Benneteau

Kiefer’s had more success at Wimbledon, including a first round edging of Benneteau in 2005.

Ivo Minar def. Martin Vassallo Arguello

Minar beat the Argentine in straight sets on clay this year, so winning on grass should be no problem.

Ernests Gulbis def. John Isner

Isner made a splash when he reached the third round of the U.S. Open last summer.  Gulbis did the same by getting to the French quarters a few weeks ago.  Neither has won a match at Wimbledon, but Gulbis just reached the third round at Queen’s Club before dropping a close one to Murray.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Andreas Beck

The two-time defending finalist should have no problem with the qualifier.

SECOND ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Robin Soderling

Federer is 6-0 lifetime against Soderling.

Gael Monfils (30) def. Kei Nishikori

Monfils should return to the third round for the third time in four years.

Lleyton Hewitt (20) def. Albert Montanes

Hewitt beat Montanes in straight sets at the 2006 U.S. Open and he should be able to repeat that performance at Wimbledon.

Fernando Gonzalez (15) def. Simone Bolelli

Gonzalez has beaten Bolelli twice since 2006 but five of the six sets they’ve played have gone to a tiebreaker, so this match should be tight but the Chilean will come out on top.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Alejandro Falla

Berdych reached the quarters last year and I see no reason to pick against him in a match-up with a guy who’s never gotten to the third round.

Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Olivier Rochus

Kohlschreiber beat Rochus twice last year on clay and he has more recent success at Wimbledon.

Mario Ancic def. Hyung-Taik Lee

Ancic is 2-0 on Tour against Lee and the Croat is looking to reach the third round for the fourth time in his last four Wimbledons.

Igor Andreev def. David Ferrer (5)

I balked at knocking out Ferrer in the first round but I won’t do the same in the second.  Andreev is 4-1 in his career against the five seed and Ferrer has only made it to the third round once in five tries at the All England Club.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Marat Safin

Safin surrendered just three games in a win over Safin at the 2005 Australian Open, but the number three player in the world has improved quite a bit since then, reaching five straight Grand Slam semi-finals.

Andreas Seppi (29) def. Florent Serra

Neither player has reached the third round here, but Seppi at least has a win on grass this season so I’ll give him the nod.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (21) def. Alexander Peya

Last year’s quarterfinalist should have no problem with Peya, who has never reached the third round.

Stanislas Wawrinka (13) def. Juan Martin Del Potro

Del Potro’s never reached the third round, while Wawrinka did it once two years ago.

Marcos Baghdatis (10) def. Thomas Johansson

Baghdatis is 2-0 in his career against Johansson

Ivo Karlovic (18) def. Igor Kunitsyn

Karlovic has lost three straight opening round matches at Wimbledon since reaching the Round of 16 in 2004, but he’ll have a chance to get back there after beating Kunitsyn, who’s just 6-6 this year.

Feliciano Lopez (31) def. Roko Karanusic

Lopez has had more success at Wimbledon.

David Nalbandian (7) def. Filippo Volandri

Volandri has beaten Nalbandian two out of three times but those were all on clay and Nalbandian has never failed to reach the third round in five career Wimbledons.

Andy Roddick (6) def. Janko Tipsarevic

Roddick beat Tipsarevic in the first round at the 2006 Wimbledon.

Dmitry Tursunov (25) def. Chris Eaton

Eaton should be happy with one win here.  He won’t get two against the two-time Round of 16er.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez def. Nicolas Almagro (19)

These guys know each other well from playing Futures matches as kids in Spain, but neither has a lot of experience on grass.  I’ll give the edge to Garcia-Lopez because he’s 6-6 in his career on the surface, while Almagro is 0-4.

James Blake (9) def. Rainer Schuettler

Blake just beat Schuettler in straight sets at the French and the German is not having a good year with a record of 3-12.

Paul-Henri Mathieu (14) def. Frederico Gil

Mathieu made the fourth round last year and should be able to best the qualifier.

Jarkko Nieminen (24) def. Edouard Roger-Vasselin

Nieminen hasn’t missed the third round since 2005, while his opponent just got there for the first time last year.

Ivan Ljubicic (26) def. Donald Young

Ljubicic has made back-to-back third round appearances, while Young has never even played here before.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. Arnaud Clement

Davydenko is 3-0 in his career against Clement.

Richard Gasquet (8) def. Sebastien Grosjean

Grosjean has two semi-final finishes here, while Gasquet has just one.  But Gasquet’s came last year, when he also beat Grosjean at a Masters Series event in Miami.

Gilles Simon (28) def. Kevin Anderson

These are two good young players, but Simon is further along in his development.

Tommy Haas def. Tommy Robredo (23)

Robredo has won the last two battle of the Tommy’s, but those were both on clay.  Haas is much better on grass.

Andy Murray (12) def. Xavier Malisse

Malisse was a semi-finalist in 2002, but Murray has had a lot more recent success.

Radek Stepanek (16) def. Nicolas Lapentti

Stepanek is 2-0 in his career against Lapentti.

Mikhail Youzhny (17) def. Stefano Galvani

Galvani has never sniffed the third round, while Youzhny is there seemingly every year.

Nicolas Kiefer (27) def. Ivo Minar

Minar’s never reached the third round, while Minar has gotten there six times, including his last two Wimbledons.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Ernests Gulbis

Nadal’s victory at the recent Queen’s Club event was his first on grass and proves that he is capable of winning on any surface.

THIRD ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Gael Monfils (30)

Federer’s four-set victory over Monfils in the French semis was his third win in three tries against the Frenchman this year.

Lleyton Hewitt (20) def. Fernando Gonzalez (15)

Hewitt is the better grass court player.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Philipp Kohlschreiber

Berdych is 4-0 in his career against Kohlschreiber.

Mario Ancic def. Igor Andreev

Ancic’s made the fourth round his last three Wimbledons.  Andreev’s never been there.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Andreas Seppi (29)

Djokovic is 3-0 versus Seppi.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (21) def. Stanislas Wawrinka (13)

Wawrinka is 2-8 lifetime on grass, while Ferrero made the quarters last year.

Marcos Baghdatis (10) def. Ivo Karlovic (18)

Baghdatis beat Karlovic in straight sets on hard courts this year and he should be able to do the same on grass.

David Nalbandian (7) def. Feliciano Lopez (31)

Nalbandian is 2-0 in his career against Lopez.

Andy Roddick (6) def. Dmitry Tursunov (25)

Roddick is 3-1 versus Tursunov, including a straight set victory at the Queen’s Club event last year.

James Blake (9) def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Blake is the more experienced grass courter.

Jarkko Nieminen (24) def. Paul-Henri Mathieu (14)

This is the toughest pick of the tournament so far.  I’ll take Nieminen in five sets because he beat Mathieu in straight sets on a hard court in 2006.

Ivan Ljubicic (26) def. Nikolay Davydenko (4)

This is another difficult pick, but I’ll go with Ljubicic because he’s won four of the last five head-to-head, including a comeback victory at this year’s French, and he is the better grass court player.

Richard Gasquet (8) def. Gilles Simon (28)

Gasquet is 2-0 versus Simon, including a win on grass in 2006.

Andy Murray (12) def. Tommy Haas

These two have squared off the past couple years at Indian Wells, splitting a pair of tight three-setters, so I’ll take Murray in five sets because he’s playing better this year.

Radek Stepanek (16) def. Mikhail Youzhny (17)

Another very right match-up.  I’ll take Stepanek because he’s playing slightly better this year and he’s beaten Youzhny in their last two meetings.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Nicolas Kiefer (27)

Nadal has beaten Kiefer twice this year already.  Make it three.

FOURTH ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Lleyton Hewitt (20)

Federer’s won the last 11 meetings, including two at Wimbledon.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Mario Ancic

Both have made the quarters here but I’ll take Berdych to do it this year because he’s beaten Ancic in their last two meetings, including once last year.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Juan Carlos Ferrero (21)

Last year’s semi-finalist beat Ferrero in their latest meeting last year in Spain.

Marcos Baghdatis (10) def. David Nalbandian (7)

Baghdatis beat Nalbandian in straight sets in the third round last year.

Andy Roddick (6) def. James Blake (9)

Blake’s won the last two meetings, but his is Wimbledonwhere Roddick’s reached the finals twice and Blake’s never escaped the third round.

Ivan Ljubicic (26) def. Jarkko Nieminen (24)

Ljubicic beat Nieminen in straight sets last year at Miami.

Richard Gasquet (8) def. Andy Murray (12)

Murray’s thumb injury will catch up to him at some point.  I say it’s here against a man he has an 0-2 career record against.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Radek Stepanek (16)

Nadal is 4-0 lifetime versus Stepanek.

QUARTERFINALS

Roger Federer (1) def. Tomas Berdych (11)

Federer’s won the last six meetings, including two on grass.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Marcos Baghdatis (10)

A rematch of last year’s quarters that Djokovic won 7-5 in the fifth set.

Andy Roddick (6) def. Ivan Ljubicic (26)

Roddick has won seven of 10 against Ljubicic, including the last two meetings.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Richard Gasquet (8)

Nadal is 4-0 against Gasquet.

SEMI-FINALS

Roger Federer (1) def. Novak Djokovic (3)

They’ve split their last four meetings, so I’ll give the edge to the world’s number one who I believe has something to prove in this tournament.  He followed up his disappointing loss to Nadal in the French Open final by winning in Halle without dropping a set in five matches.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Andy Roddick (6)

Nadal just took out Roddick in straight sets in the Queen’s Club semis.

FINAL

Roger Federer (1) def. Rafael Nadal (2)

Nadal just decimated Federer in the Roland Garros final, dropping just four games, and he has now proven he can win a grass tournament with his recent victory at the Queen’s Club event.  So why have I picked Federer to win here?  For the same reason I picked Nadal at the French.  Until someone beats the world’s number one on his favorite surface, I have to pick him to go all the way.  He’s won 59 straight matches on grass and five consecutive Wimbledons.  Make it six.