Updated MLB Trade and Free-Agency Predictions After 1st Wave of Signings
The MLB free-agency and trade market dominoes have continued to fall at a dizzying pace since the lockout was lifted as teams try to fit three months' worth of offseason activity into just a few weeks.
Despite all of the activity, high-profile stars Carlos Correa and Trevor Story are both still searching for a new home as Opening Day fast approaches, and there are several other notable names among the other remaining free agents.
We will also likely see at least a few more notable trades as the Cincinnati Reds and Oakland Athletics continue to dismantle their rosters, and with the starting pitching market all but dried up, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle will be hot commodities.
As we wait for the next big domino to drop, we've made five free-agency and trade predictions based on the latest rumors and our own speculation.
Chicago White Sox Acquire Sean Manaea from Oakland Athletics
1 of 5
The Oakland Athletics have already jettisoned first baseman Matt Olson, third baseman Matt Chapman and right-hander Chris Bassitt since the lockout was lifted, and they may not be finished slashing payroll before Opening Day.
According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the team is now actively shopping starters Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, and the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins are among the teams showing interest in the veteran starters. The Twins recently swung a deal to acquire Sonny Gray from the Cincinnati Reds, so the White Sox might be a more likely landing spot for one of those arms at this point.
With Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Dallas Keuchel locked into rotation spots, the White Sox could simply move hard-throwing Michael Kopech into the rotation to fill the void left by Carlos Rodon's departure, but they might prefer to keep him in a hybrid role.
Manaea, 30, is a free agent next offseason and figures to come cheaper than Montas who is controllable for two more years. He went 11-10 with a 3.91 ERA and 194 strikeouts in a career-high 179.1 innings last year.
Given their desire to sell and his status as a one-year rental, it might not take more than a couple mid-level prospects to get a deal done.
Texas Rangers Sign Johnny Cueto
2 of 5
With Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Rodon, Zack Greinke and Yusei Kikuchi all signing in recent days, Johnny Cueto is arguably the best remaining starter on a free-agent market that includes Tyler Anderson, Danny Duffy and Michael Pineda.
Despite turning 36 years old in February, Cueto showed he still has something left last season when he posted a 4.08 ERA in 114.2 innings for a contending San Francisco Giants team.
It won't cost anything close to the $20-plus million salary he pulled in last year to sign him, and a one-year deal in the $5 million neighborhood might be enough to get a deal done. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported last weekend that Cueto's market is heating up.
The Texas Rangers have already signed Jon Gray (four years, $56M) and Martin Perez (one year, $4M) in free agency—not to mention their $500 million splurge on the new middle-infield tandem of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien—but they're going to need more starting pitching help if they want to contend in 2022.
Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, A.J. Alexy and Kolby Allard are all in the mix for rotation spots behind those two newcomers, but shoring things up by adding Cueto would take some pressure off those young arms.
Minnesota Twins Sign Trevor Story
3 of 5
The Minnesota Twins have a hole to fill at shortstop after veteran Andrelton Simmons departed in free agency and trade acquisition Isiah Kiner-Falefa was quickly flipped to the New York Yankees.
Shifting Jorge Polanco back to the other side of second base is a less-than-ideal solution given his poor career metrics at shortstop (-42 DRS, -11.0 UZR/150), and top prospect Royce Lewis is an unknown after missing last season with a torn ACL, so an outside addition makes sense.
With money to spend after unloading Josh Donaldson's contract, the Twins have the potential to make a splash before the offseason comes to a close.
According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, they are showing interest in former Colorado Rockies star Trevor Story, who has already turned down multiple nine-figure offers from teams that wanted him to change positions.
The vacancy at shortstop could give the Twins a leg-up in their pursuit, and after trading for Sonny Gray, it doesn't seem like the team is planning on going into full rebuild mode.
.png?w=256)
Los Angeles Dodgers Acquire Luis Castillo from Cincinnati Reds
4 of 5
After trading away catcher Tucker Barnhart, waiving 5.6-WAR pitcher Wade Miley to offload his $10 million salary and giving up All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker to dump Eugenio Suarez's remaining contract, it's clear the Cincinnati Reds are committed to a fire sale.
There's no reason to think starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle won't also be on the move in the coming weeks. Both pitchers are controllable for two more seasons, with Castillo ($7.6 million) checking in with a slightly higher projected arbitration salary than Mahle ($5.4 million) for the 2022 season.
For a team seemingly focused on the bottom line above all else, Castillo could be the next domino to fall. The 29-year-old got off to a rocky start last season, but posted a 2.73 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 135.1 innings from the start of June through the end of the year, and he has the potential to be a bona fide frontline starter.
The Dodgers currently have Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw penciled into the first three spots in the rotation, but the rest of the starting staff is up in the air. Trevor Bauer could return at some point, while David Price, Tony Gonsolin and an eventually healthy Dustin May are also in the mix.
Acquiring Castillo would give the team a fourth elite-level starter, and with the No. 5 farm system in baseball, there is no question they have the chips to swing a deal.
Houston Astros Re-Sign Carlos Correa
5 of 5
With the New York Yankees acquiring Isiah Kiner-Falefa and the Chicago Cubs signing Andrelton Simmons, the list of teams in search of an upgrade at shortstop is rapidly shrinking.
At the same time, the list of available shortstops has shrunk, too. With Freddy Galvis (Japan) and Jose Iglesias (Rockies) also off the market, there are no longer obvious options for a team looking for a short-term stopgap at the position.
All of that points to Carlos Correa finding his way back to the Houston Astros.
It was reported on Tuesday that the Astros planned on making him a new offer, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and owner Jim Crane was part of the group that reached out to Correa's agent to re-engage in negotiations.
The Astros made him a five-year, $160 million offer in November, but they will likely need to at least double that after Corey Seager inked a 10-year, $325 million contract with the Texas Rangers.
Prediction: A 10-year, $345 million deal—eclipsing the 10-year, $341 million extension Francisco Lindor signed last offseason—gets it done, and Correa returns to Houston.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
.png?w=480)
