Ranking Every 2021 Non-Playoff Team's Chances of Reaching 2022 MLB Postseason
Rejoice, for the long-awaited collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association ensured that there will indeed be a baseball season in 2022.
And with it, a larger postseason field that has room for two extra teams.
With the playoffs set to expand from 10 teams to 12, we looked at the 20 teams that didn't play in October last year and ranked their chances of getting there in 2022. We considered how open their contention windows are, as well as the competition they're up against.
Let's count 'em down, going five at a time for the bottom 15 and one at a time for the top five.
20-16: No Chance
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20. Colorado Rockies
2021 Record: 74-87
The Rockies were a bad team even before they lost right-hander Jon Gray to free agency, and shortstop Trevor Story is almost certain to also depart for greener, richer pastures. What's left is a group of players who, according to FanGraphs, project for the lowest WAR in baseball for the coming season.
19. Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 Record: 61-101
Between outfielder Bryan Reynolds and young infielders Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz, the Pirates are starting to put a fun lineup together. What they're missing is basically everything else, and their path to putting it all together still has a couple of years of rebuilding left to go.
18. Baltimore Orioles
2021 Record: 52-110
Especially once catcher Adley Rutschman and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez arrive, the end of Baltimore's rebuild will be that much closer. However, even those two aren't going to turn things around overnight. Up to and including Trey Mancini, the Orioles also have trade chips they've yet to cash in.
17. Washington Nationals
2021 Record: 65-97
Go ahead and pencil Juan Soto in for an OBP closer to .500 than .400, plus 30-odd home runs. There otherwise isn't much to like about the Nationals these days, particularly if aces Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin continue to be dogged by injuries and ineffectiveness, respectively.
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 Record: 52-110
To their credit, the Diamondbacks made a win-now move by signing closer Mark Melancon, and they're reportedly still looking for reinforcements. It's nonetheless hard to believe they can so quickly repair a 110-loss roster. Even if they could, they're staring up at as many as three superteams in the NL West.
15-11: Some Chance
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15. Cincinnati Reds
2021 Record: 83-79
There's a scenario in which the Reds keep Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle and also promote Hunter Greene, resulting in a moundstaff more than worthy of October. But it's a long shot just in the context of how much payroll they've cut, much less the likelihood of one or more of those aces getting traded.
14. Oakland Athletics
2021 Record: 86-76
To be sure, the roster the A's have right now is good enough to at least chase one of the American League's three wild-card openings. But it's no secret that this roster is due to be dismantled, with stars such as Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Manaea most likely to follow Chris Bassitt out the door.
13. Kansas City Royals
2021 Record: 74-88
The Royals can hope for bounce-back seasons from Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier and Brad Keller, plus a big breakout from super-prospect Bobby Witt Jr. Yet even these things might only get the Royals over .500, which probably won't cut it amid what's sure to be a crowded American League playoff picture.
12. Minnesota Twins
2021 Record: 73-89
Could the Twins make an immediate turnaround after going first-to-worst in 2021? Maybe if Byron Buxton stays healthy, Max Kepler bounces back and Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach break out. The elephant in the room, though, is a pitching staff that looks a little too similar to last year's disastrous bunch.
11. Detroit Tigers
2021 Record: 77-85
The Tigers weren't that bad in 2021. Now they have a new ace (Eduardo Rodriguez) and shortstop (Javier Baez), with top prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene awaiting their promotions. Yet it'll likely take 90 wins for Detroit to be a serious playoff contender. Such a leap is a better bet for 2023 than 2022.
10-6: Decent Chance
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10. Texas Rangers
2021 Record: 60-102
How much better are the Rangers after sinking over $500 million into Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray? Frankly, not better enough for anyone to buy into them as a contender just yet. But their window is open now, and it could get wider if they double down with the right in-season additions.
9. Chicago Cubs
2021 Record: 71-91
The Cubs struck for hurlers Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley before the lockout and more recently for defensive wiz shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Carlos Correa obviously would have been a better move than the latter, but the Cubs nonetheless have a shot at 80-something wins and a wild-card berth.
8. Cleveland Guardians
2021 Record: 80-82
Especially if Shane Bieber's shoulder holds up, the Guardians should have an elite pitching staff. What they need is more offense around Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes. Maybe they'll subtract from their second-ranked farm system to find bats on the trade market, but nobody ever accused this organization of being willing to take risks.
7. Miami Marlins
2021 Record: 67-95
The Marlins are essentially the Guardians of the National League, in that there's lots to like about their Sandy Alcantara-led pitching but questions aplenty about their offense. The difference is that their lineup has a new slugger (Avisail Garcia) and a couple of upside-laden youngsters (Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez). Plus, Miami could be more willing to leverage its own excellent system on the trade market.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
2021 Record: 82-80
If there had been a 12-team playoff field in 2021, the Phillies would have fallen just one win shy of the Reds for entry into the NL field. They're the better team of the two now, but it'll be hard to take them seriously as contenders until they add more depth around MVP Bryce Harper and ace Zack Wheeler. Their offense, especially, needs a proper center fielder and some additional power.
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5. Los Angeles Angels
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2021 Record: 77-85
To buy the Los Angeles Angels as a contender for 2022 requires believing that they can at least break free from a string of six straight losing seasons.
For that, much will need to go right.
After injury-ruined seasons in 2021, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon will need to stay as healthy as they are now. Ditto for newcomer ace Noah Syndergaard. It would also be nice if youngsters Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh broke out. And above all, Shohei Ohtani will need to repeat a 2021 season that was unlike any other.
In the event that all these wishes are granted, though, the Angels' core will be one of the strongest in baseball. There will also be some strong supporting characters aiding their contention bid, including overlooked left-hander Patrick Sandoval and contact machine David Fletcher.
At best, the Angels could challenge the Houston Astros for the AL West title. Failing that, they might at least make a run at 90 wins and one of the American League's three wild cards.
4. Seattle Mariners
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2021 Record: 90-72
Though the Seattle Mariners fell just two wins shy of the Boston Red Sox for the AL's second wild-card spot in 2021, they rode an unsustainable wave of luck to get there.
This is, of course, assuming that run differential is a more telling statistic than "fun differential." The former said the '21 Mariners won 14 more games than they should have. The latter was...well, just for fun.
However, Seattle clearly doesn't mean to rely on fun differential again in 2022. If that was the plan, the team would not have bothered to sign reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray or trade for All-Star infielder Adam Frazier. And in all likelihood, general manager Jerry Dipoto isn't done yet.
The Mariners also stand to get a boost from in-house youngsters. Jarred Kelenic was a letdown as a rookie until September, when he clubbed half of his 14 overall home runs. He'll soon be joined in the outfield by Julio Rodriguez, who's arguably baseball's top offensive prospect.
These Mariners should ultimately be better than the '21 squad, in which case they might not need luck to achieve another 90-win season and finally snap the franchise's 21-year playoff drought.
3. San Diego Padres
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2021 Record: 79-83
Through May 29 of last year, the San Diego Padres held the best record in baseball at 34-19. As this was on the heels of a 37-23 season in 2020, it seemed legit.
In truth, it was a prelude to a nightmare. Pretty much everything went wrong for San Diego after May, but the worst of it was self-inflicted. The clubhouse culture under then-manager Jayce Tingler went sour, culminating in Manny Machado berating Fernando Tatis Jr. in the dugout in September.
On the plus side, all this begat one of the most consequential moves of the offseason. The Padres fired Tingler and replaced him with Bob Melvin, who's as deft a manager as there is in today's game.
Meanwhile, there's little wrong with San Diego's actual roster. Their offense could use another bat, but Tatis, Machado and Jake Cronenworth make for a strong enough core. With good health, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger can be a nightmarish starting foursome.
Even if the Padres fail to leapfrog the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, their floor should be as a 90-win club and wild-card contender.
2. New York Mets
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2021 Record: 77-85
The New York Mets went into 2021 with high hopes under new owner Steve Cohen, but he didn't even make it to September before publicly voicing his frustrations amid the team's disappointing season.
Evidently determined to avoid a similar fate in 2022, Cohen promptly hired a new GM and greenlit signings of three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, center fielder Starling Marte and role players Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. More recently, the Mets added another impact starter with a trade for Chris Bassitt.
To be sure, questions remain in Queens. One concerns the shortage of depth underneath Scherzer and fellow aces Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco, who also come with durability red flags. On the other side of the ball, the Mets badly need shortstop Francisco Lindor to replenish returns that have been diminishing.
Even with all these acknowledged, it must also be noted that the Dodgers are the only NL team that projects for more WAR than the Mets. That captures their sheer upside as a stars-and-scrubs sort of squad.
Should they realize that potential, not even the defending World Series champions in Atlanta might be able to keep them from capturing the NL East crown.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
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2021 Record: 91-71
It's a bummer for the Toronto Blue Jays that the 12-team playoff field is only now coming into play. Had it been implemented for 2021, they would have played in their second straight postseason.
As for where they stand now, the losses of Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien to free agency undeniably hurt. But they at least replaced the former with Kevin Gausman. The latter's shoes have yet to be filled, but it's doubtful they'll stay unfilled.
Besides, Toronto's offense remains lethal even without Semien. Still in town is 48-homer maestro Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as well as significant power supplies with George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk.
Toronto's pitching typically gets less press, but Gausman, Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu are an excellent front three. Young right-hander Alek Manoah and newcomer Yusei Kikuchi make for a sturdy back end. The pen could use another late-inning arm, but Jordan Romano proved he can handle closing duties in 2021.
Do the Blue Jays have more upside than the Mets? Maybe not. But even as is, they're a better bet to make good on a postseason mission that barely fell short in 2021.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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