Predicting Where Top Players Involved in MLB Trade Rumors Will Finish '22 Season
Though things continue to not go well on the lockout front, we can assume it's still just a matter of time before Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association decide to have a season in 2022.
And with it, a trade season. So, let's predict where the top players on the market will be calling home by the end of the year.
We set our eyes on 10 stars who have been involved in trade rumors and speculation throughout the 2021-22 offseason. From there, we assessed the probability of them being moved at all. For instances in which the needle leaned toward "yes," we spotlighted which teams could be of interest and which one is the best fit.
Let's count 'em down in order of apparent availability, from least available to most available.
10. 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
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Age: 29
There hasn't been any concrete reporting on Jose Ramirez's availability, so whether the star third baseman belongs here is debatable.
But if nothing else, he's a fair target for speculation because of the Cleveland Guardians' history of trading star players once they get close to free agency. That's where Ramirez is now, as his contract doesn't include anything beyond a $13 million club option for 2023.
There's also the matter of whether the Guardians are a contender in the wake of an 80-82 effort in 2021. FanGraphs projects them for the middle of the pack in wins above replacement, so their outlook isn't great.
On the other hand, the Chicago White Sox are the only team in the American League Central that looks better than Cleveland on paper. If that wasn't reason enough for the Guardians to believe they have a shot, there's likely to be at least one extra playoff spot for them to pursue.
Still another factor that could sway Cleveland's thinking on Ramirez is the team's farm system, which we have ranked as the second-best in baseball. Clearly, there's no pressure to cash him in for prospects.
Where He'll End 2022: Cleveland Guardians
9. LHP Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
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Age: 27
Like with Ramirez, Josh Hader's trade availability is the product of wishful thinking as much as anything else.
It is nonetheless built upon a similarly solid foundation. The Milwaukee Brewers' pockets only go so deep, so it could make them squeamish that their ace closer is projected to earn $10 million in arbitration in 2022, with still another raise due his way in 2023.
It's likewise relevant that the Brewers' trade for Hunter Renfroe didn't quite satisfy their need for an impact bat. They need to think bigger, and actually achieving bigger could necessitate a trade of Hader.
As far as teams that have serious needs at closer and extra bats lying around, hypothetical trade partners include the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets. Because Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith seem to be available, the latter club is an especially intriguing fit.
Still, it's hard to imagine the Brewers trading Hader even before Opening Day. And if they don't, that'll probably be that until at least next winter. Because even if they don't win another 95 games in 2022, they're likely to be too good to consider ridding their bullpen of baseball's best relief pitcher.
Where He'll End 2022: Milwaukee Brewers
8. 2B/CF Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Age: 28
Though it was easy to imagine a Ketel Marte trade at the outset of the offseason, it got harder after the Arizona Diamondbacks made a curious win-now move by signing All-Star closer Mark Melancon.
Not impossible, though. Because especially in a division as top-heavy as the National League West, Melancon can only do so much to move the D-backs past last year's 110-loss stinker.
In the event that 2022 brings more of the icky same, Arizona's farm system isn't so strong that the team would be justified in taking a wait-and-see approach with Marte if he's healthy and productive. There would be no time like the present to cash him in.
Because Marte is a switch-hitter who can capably play second base and center field, there's no shortage of on-paper fits for him. But throw in that he's owed just $8.4 million in 2022 with $18 million worth of options for 2023 and 2024, and his list of likely suitors dwindles to a select few with young talent to spare.
In December, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pointed to the Miami Marlins as an interested party. They could definitely use a player of Marte's caliber, and there should enough in their third-ranked system to satisfy Arizona in a trade.
Where He'll End 2022: Miami Marlins
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7. CF Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Age: 27
Bryan Reynolds was engulfed in rumors ahead of last year's July 30 trade deadline. Eventually, though, Rosenthal put the kibosh on those by reporting that the Pittsburgh Pirates intended to build around him.
This is not only admirable but also perfectly sensible. On either side of a rough 2020 season, Reynolds proved himself as one of baseball's top outfielders as a rookie in 2019 and again in 2021. And even sans an extension, he's under club control through 2025 as is.
Then again, the Pirates have been the NL's worst team over the last three seasons. Making a quick climb out of those depths could require more prospects than what they have in their seventh-ranked system, not to mention actual investing from notoriously stingy owner Bob Nutting.
If not right away, the Pirates might get serious about trading Reynolds ahead of this year's deadline. If they do, teams like the Marlins (see here), New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners (here) could rekindle interest they've had in the past.
The Mariners in particular would be a threat to land Reynolds. If not Julio Rodriguez, they might still entice Pittsburgh with an offer centered around fellow uber-prospect Noelvi Marte.
Where He'll End 2022: Seattle Mariners
6. C Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
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Age: 29
As the Chicago Cubs were winding down a 91-loss season last September, Willson Contreras was justifiably seen as a trade candidate for the coming offseason.
Yet the Cubs didn't deal him prior to the lockout, and the moves they did make diminished the likelihood that he'll be with another team before Opening Day. Frankly, it would be weird for Chicago to add pitchers like Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley and then trade the guy they're supposed to throw to.
There's nonetheless a lingering question of whether Contreras will finish 2022 with the Cubs. It is, after all, his final year under club control. And even in spite of additions like Stroman and Miley, the team doesn't look equipped to challenge the Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals for NL Central supremacy.
Contreras' looming free agency would likely limit his market to win-now teams, but even clubs in that bracket are liable to need help at catcher. Speculatively, the Yankees, Mariners, Mets and San Francisco Giants could line up for Contreras.
Just sayin', the Cubs and Giants hooked up on a trade for Kris Bryant last year, and the latter happens to have a couple well-regarded catching prospects in Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey.
Where He'll End 2022: San Francisco Giants
5. RHP Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
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Age: 27
Even before general manager Nick Krall started making good on the team's mission to align its payroll to its resources, the Cincinnati Reds seemed likely to trade at least one starting pitcher.
As for which one, ESPN's Buster Olney reported in November that Sonny Gray was more available than fellow right-handers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. Yet demand was more so focused on the latter two, with the Blue Jays (here) and Texas Rangers (here) reportedly in pursuit prior to the lockout.
Even if Mahle is the least accomplished of Cincinnati's three aces, he might paradoxically be the most valuable. He leads Gray and Castillo in rWAR since the start of 2020. He's also younger than the two of them and slated to earn less money in his penultimate year under club control.
Ultimately, what could determine Mahle's fate is where the Reds' real priorities lie. Because while they've been open about wanting to reduce payroll, it's less clear as to whether they mean to do a full-on rebuild in which they hoard prospects and bide their time.
Because of this, it seems reasonable to assume that if any of the club's top three hurlers are going to move, it'll more likely be one or both of the older, more expensive ones.
Where He'll End 2022: Cincinnati Reds
4. RHP Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
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Age: 29
So what of Castillo, then?
Back in November, Rosenthal reported that it was "doubtful" that the Reds would trade Castillo during the offseason. Even if the team doesn't intend to contend in 2022, there might still be a two-pronged rationale for this reluctance.
For one, he doesn't weigh as heavily on the team's resources as Gray. For two, he might only inflate his value between now and the deadline. Though he was more good than great on the whole last season, Castillo will be out to pick up where he left off after finishing hot with a 2.73 ERA over his last 22 starts.
If that happens, teams that have been connected to Castillo could double their efforts to land him during the summer. Those include the Rangers and Blue Jays, as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers (here) and Los Angeles Angels (here).
Per MLB Network's Jon Heyman, the Angels were at the "forefront" of the Castillo sweepstakes prior to the lockout. They might return to that position if their risk-filled starting rotation stumbles in 2022, in which case even Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh or Reid Detmers could be on the table.
Where He'll End 2022: Los Angeles Angels
3. RHP Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds
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Age: 32
If Mahle is a "maybe" trade candidate and Castillo is one of the "probably" variety, then Gray's availability descriptor surely skews closer to "definitely."
With a $10.7 million salary headed his way, he presents a bigger financial burden on the Reds than Castillo ($7.6 million) or Mahle ($5.6 million). He's also just expendable enough in that his returns over the last two seasons are right on that line between still good yet also diminishing.
Lest they risk further diminishment of Gray's returns, there would seem to be a decent chance of the Reds trading the veteran before Opening Day. Whether he's worth a substantial package is debatable, but Cincinnati could be willing to take what it can get so long as the other team takes on Gray's money.
Teams that could do such a deal include some that have been linked to Gray, such as the Blue Jays, Rangers and Dodgers.
Given the rate at which they've spent money this offseason, the Rangers might not balk at adding another $10.7 million to their payroll. Plus, Gray would only look more appealing if they fail to lure Clayton Kershaw home to the Dallas area.
Where He'll End 2022: Texas Rangers
2. 3B Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
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Age: 28
Enough about the Reds. The real trade action for 2022 will be in Oakland, where the Athletics seem ready to carry out an "Everything Must Go" fire sale.
If this was two years ago, Matt Chapman would have been by far their shiniest trade chip. These days, the shine has worn off thanks to a bum hip and an elevated strikeout rate over the last two seasons.
Nevertheless, Gold Glove-winning third basemen with 30-homer power aren't easy to find. Between these things and his two remaining years of club control, Chapman is worth a massive haul even now. If the A's hold on to him and he recaptures his MVP-caliber form of 2018 and 2019, even more so.
Either way, Chapman is going to have some heavy hitters eyeing him on the trade market. The Mariners have had interest in the past. The Blue Jays' actual interest is unknown, but they've rightfully been a popular speculative fit for Chapman.
To wit, the Blue Jays could hypothetically part with either prospects (i.e., Gabriel Moreno or Jordan Groshans) or major leaguers (i.e., Alejandro Kirk or Nate Pearson) for Chapman, who would fill what looks like a significant void at third base.
Where He'll End 2022: Toronto Blue Jays
1. 1B Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
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Age: 27
The A's could trade plenty of other players besides Chapman. To name a few, center fielder Ramon Laureano, starters Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas and reliever Lou Trivino.
But if there's one player who appears destined to get moved, it's Matt Olson.
There isn't much question about his value right now, unless the question is, "Is it sky-high?" Olson indeed had a difficult season in 2020. But before that, he was a two-time Gold Glover, and he's fresh off making his first All-Star team and earning MVP votes in 2021. To boot, he's two years from free agency.
Where Olson ends up could hinge on which team signs Freddie Freeman in free agency. And on that front, the winds are blowing away from Atlanta and, by default, toward clubs like the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rangers.
In turn, the probability is climbing of Atlanta realizing its own interest in Olson. He obviously doesn't have Freeman's credentials as an MVP, playoff hero and local legend, but trading for him is the best thing the team could do to ease the pain of Freeman's departure.
Where He'll End 2022: Atlanta
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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