8 MLB Stars Most Likely to Be on the Trade Block by 2022 Deadline
Is it too early to be thinking about Major League Baseball's 2022 trade deadline? Why, yes it is. And also sort of presumptuous, given that the league isn't yet out of its work stoppage.
But hey, sometimes you gotta speculate on stars who might be traded in half a year.
There are eight who we think could hit the block later rather than sooner, either because their value figures to inflate or their teams figure to fall out of the 2022 playoff race—or some combination of the above.
Please note this is not a list of candidates to be traded before Opening Day on March 31. Don't expect to see anything about the Matt Olsons and Craig Kimbrels of the world.
As for the eight players who are on this list, let's go through them in alphabetical order.
1B Josh Bell, Washington Nationals
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If you're thinking Josh Bell is a trade candidate right now, you're not wrong.
Yet there is a complication if the Washington Nationals desire to trade Bell in the near future. It's Oakland Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, who's by far the top first baseman on the trade market.
The Nats might not get a suitable offer for Bell even after Olson moves, much less while he's out there. In that case, the best thing they could do is hold on to the 29-year-old and hope his value appreciates during the season.
As is, Bell has value as a capable power hitter at the cold corner. Yet he's been known to get hot and look more like a superstar. He certainly did so in the first half of 2019. Albeit a lesser one, he found another stride as he posted a .381 OBP and hit 15 homers in the second half of 2021.
If Bell does the Nationals the kindness of a hot first half in 2022, any number of teams might be willing to pay a hefty price to rent him before free agency calls his number after the season.
RHP Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
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In the last couple of years, it's often felt like Luis Castillo was as much a walking trade rumor as one of the most successful pitchers in the National League.
So it has gone this winter, but perhaps in the face of what the Cincinnati Reds intend. As ESPN's Buster Olney reported in November, the Reds are less open to moving Castillo than they are fellow ace Sonny Gray, who's owed more money in 2022.
Plus, there is a potential benefit in holding on to Castillo. His value is good now, but it stands to get better if he can pick up where he left off. After struggling out of the gate in 2021, he recovered to pitch to a 2.73 ERA over his last 22 starts.
That's a legit No. 1 starter, and this one would come with club control through 2023.
Because such a player is a hugely valuable trade chip, the question is whether the Reds will be in a position to sell. Given that they won only 83 games last year and have lost talent over the winter, that seems likely.
3B Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
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Courtesy of Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and others, the word is out that the A's want to cut costs and are willing to trade just about anyone.
That includes slugging first baseman Matt Olson, as well as pitchers Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. It could also mean slick-fielding, power-hitting third baseman Matt Chapman, but the A's could benefit from holding on to him for a while longer.
As strong as Chapman's value is, it could be stronger. He hasn't been consistent with the stick over the last two seasons, to the extent that he's gotten on base at just a .306 clip. It's not hard to connect this dot with the hip surgery he had in September 2020.
The possibility that the 28-year-old makes a full recovery from that injury in 2022 is beyond tantalizing. He might return to the form he had in 2018 and 2019, across which he had a .348 OBP, 60 home runs and the fourth-most rWAR in baseball.
If Chapman does become that guy again, the A's will have an MVP-caliber talent with club control through 2023 to cash in on the summer market.
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C Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
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Willson Contreras looked like a trade candidate at the outset of the winter, but the direction the Chicago Cubs have taken since then has diminished that possibility.
Rather than continue the teardown they started last July, the Cubs have been adding. To their pitching staff, Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley. To their offense, outfielder Clint Frazier and catcher Yan Gomes. And stay tuned, as Carlos Correa is still out there and a possibility for the Cubs.
Even with a star of Correa's caliber, however, the North Siders have a decent chance of being an also-ran in the NL Central. As things stand, they barely project more WAR than the Pittsburgh Pirates.
If a disappointing 2022 season is indeed what awaits the Cubs, then it likely is a matter of time before the 29-year-old Contreras is on his way out of town.
He is a free agent after the '22 campaign, after all, and he has a skill set that would benefit a great many teams. Namely, as one of the best offensive catchers in the game.
3B Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
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In spite of the team's shocking tumble to last place in 2021, the Minnesota Twins seemed to commit to contending when they inked center fielder Byron Buxton to a $100 million extension.
Whether the Twins will contend is a whole 'nother question. They have so little starting pitching that they might have to subtract a hitter (i.e., outfielder Max Kepler) to add a starter via trade.
Though Josh Donaldson is hypothetically a trade candidate, his age (36) and the money he's owed ($51.5 million) make him the kind of chip that surely wouldn't bring back an impact pitcher. If the Twins move him, it'll be more of a salary dump.
That's unlikely to happen before Opening Day, but the Twins could get serious about offloading the veteran if they fall out of the race again in 2022. To wit, it wouldn't be for the first time.
Because of his age and contract, moving him would be complicated. But if Minnesota was willing to eat some money, adding Donaldson's power and experience would be that much more appealing to rival teams.
DH Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
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If this is a reach, it's only because Trey Mancini could be on a team that isn't the Baltimore Orioles come Opening Day.
They still have rebuilding to do, after all. He's a more sensible trade chip than left-hander John Means or center fielder Cedric Mullins, who are under Baltimore's control through 2024 and 2025, respectively. Mancini, who'll turn 30 on March 18, is due for free agency after 2022.
However, how much value Mancini has is questionable.
As much as his 2021 season marked a triumphant return after colon cancer, he hit just .230 with two home runs in his final 50 appearances. As Mancini told the Baltimore Sun, he thought to himself in July, "I have [freaking] two more months of this, and I'm tired."
A proper offseason may be what Mancini needs to boost himself to the level of play he enjoyed in 2019 when he had a 134 OPS+ and 35 home runs. If that happens, even a half-season of his services would be worth a nice haul for the Orioles.
RHP German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
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Are the Colorado Rockies going to contend in 2022? They apparently think so. Reports linked them to a handful of notable players before the lockout, including 2016 National League MVP Kris Bryant.
Then again, nobody is looking at the Rockies and seeing a competently run franchise. They've had three losing seasons in a row. They mishandled Trevor Story and Jon Gray last year. More recently, team owner Dick Monfort just hired his 30-year-old son to head the professional scouting department.
As they project for the fewest WAR of any team in baseball, rock bottom may yet be ahead of the Rockies. If anything good could come of hitting it, it's a possible realization of "Hey, wait a minute, this isn't working."
If that comes to pass, maybe they'll wise up and finally cash in German Marquez.
The 26-year-old is about as consistent as they come, having posted an above-average ERA+ in each of the last five seasons. He's also signed for $26.6 million through 2023 with a modest $16 million option for 2024. If he does become available, he'll be one of the most desirable players on the summer market.
2B/CF Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
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The question you might be asking is why the Arizona Diamondbacks wouldn't trade Ketel Marte sooner than later.
After going 25-35 in 2020 and then losing 110 games in 2021, they're not an obvious contender. Marte, meanwhile, has played at a superstar-caliber level in two of the last three seasons and is controlled for less than $30 million via a guaranteed year in 2022 and options for 2023 and 2024.
Arizona's deal with closer Mark Melancon, however, seemed to signal internal optimism about its chances in 2022. That's one reason the D-backs could hold Marte, with another being that his value could just as soon increase as decrease.
As good as the 28-year-old was when he could play in 2021, he missed nearly half the season with injuries to both hamstrings. In tandem with his forgettable year in 2020, rival teams have two reasons to have reservations about paying a king's ransom for him now.
For said rival teams, the ideal scenario is Marte stays healthy and productive in 2022 as the D-backs again fall on their faces. In that scenario, he'd probably find his way to the block.
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