Bills vs. Chiefs: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for 2022 AFC Divisional Game

Jake RillFeatured Columnist IIJanuary 22, 2022

Bills vs. Chiefs: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for 2022 AFC Divisional Game

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    Travis Heying/Associated Press

    For the second year in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are going to face off in a playoff matchup. The Chiefs will be hoping for similar results as they aim to make another deep postseason run. Meanwhile, the Bills hope things go differently this time.

    In last year's AFC Championship Game, Kansas City beat Buffalo 38-24 to advance to its second straight Super Bowl. During that contest, the Bills jumped out to a 9-0 lead, but the Chiefs quickly came back and led by as many as 23 points in the fourth quarter.

    This time, Kansas City and Buffalo are meeting earlier in the playoffs, as the two teams will battle at Arrowhead Stadium in an AFC Divisional Round matchup on Sunday night. It'll be the fifth time that the Chiefs and Bills face off in a postseason contest, with the series tied at 2-2.

    Here are the odds for the matchup, followed by some stat predictions for the game.

Game Odds

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    David Zalubowski/Associated Press

    Spread: Kansas City -2

    Over/Under: 54.5 total points

    Moneyline: Kansas City -125 (bet $125 to win $100); Buffalo +105 (bet $100 to win $105)

    Via NFL" target="_blank">DraftKings Sportsbook

Mahomes Will Air It Out, Put Up More Big Numbers

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    Ed Zurga/Associated Press

    Over the past four seasons, Patrick Mahomes has played in nine playoff games, and the Chiefs quarterback has been quite successful. He's already off to a strong start this postseason, as he threw for 404 yards and five touchdowns in Kansas City's victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round.

    Now, Mahomes will have a more difficult matchup against the Bills, who allowed an NFL-best 163 passing yards per game during the regular season. However, Mahomes had a solid showing against Buffalo in Week 5, when he passed for 272 yards and two touchdowns in a loss.

    Although the Bills have a strong pass defense, Mahomes has excelled in tough matchups in the past. And when he and the Chiefs get to this time of year, they know what it takes to have success.

    So don't be surprised if Mahomes follows up his impressive performance from last week with another strong showing. His numbers may not be as big, but he should fare better than many quarterbacks have against Buffalo this season.

    Prediction: 312 passing yards and three touchdowns

Allen Should Continue to Lead Bills' Offense to Success

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    Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

    Like Mahomes, Josh Allen opened this year's postseason in a big way. In the Bills' win over the New England Patriots in the wild-card round last week, Allen passed for 308 yards and five touchdowns to power Buffalo to an easy victory.

    If the Bills hope to take down the Chiefs and avenge their playoff loss from last postseason, they likely need another big game from Allen. But even if Buffalo is unsuccessful and gets eliminated, its quarterback will still probably have an impressive showing in defeat.

    In Week 5, Allen led the Bills to a win over the Chiefs by passing for 315 yards and three touchdowns and adding a rushing score. He's had success by using both his arm and his legs throughout the season, and that's unlikely to change in the divisional round.

    Whether Buffalo wins or loses, expect another impressive showing for Allen. He should put up strong passing stats while also using his legs to make some big plays.

    Prediction: 326 passing yards and three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing)

Hill Could Be Difference Maker in Matchup with Big Game

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    Ed Zurga/Associated Press

    So far this season, Tyreek Hill has had only three games with 100 or more receiving yards, and two of those came within the Chiefs' first four games. He also had a quiet finish to the regular season, as he had 40 or fewer yards in each of Kansas City's final three games and was kept out of the end zone in all of them.

    However, Hill had a better showing to open the postseason. Last weekend, he had five catches for 57 yards and a touchdown, his first since Week 15 of the regular season and only his second over his past eight games.

    It may have been the type of performance that Hill needed to get back to putting up huge numbers, like he's done previously in his career. He had a decent showing in Week 5 against the Bills (seven catches for 63 yards), but he should fare better this time now that it's the postseason and the Chiefs need him to step up.

    Hill will begin a touchdown streak and break through for a 100-yard game, as he and Mahomes will connect for some big plays to open up the offense against the Bills' stout defense.

    Prediction: 117 yards and a touchdown

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