Fantasy Football Week 17: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

They say that all good things must come to an end. And fantasy football is no different.
The melancholy that comes with the end of another fantasy season is hardly the only emotion fantasy managers are feeling right now. Many are disappointed that their season already ended short of their goal of winning a title.

Others are filled with anticipation, as most leagues will crown a champion this week. Trophies will be awarded. Cash will be dispersed. Glory will rain from the heavens.

Of course, to soak in that glory, fantasy managers have to win one last game against a good team. There's no margin for error this week. Every lineup decision and fantasy point is absolutely critical. One mistake can ruin the entire season, and COVID-19 is wreaking havoc on NFL rosters.

Add all that together, and you get one more emotion—anxiousness.
As has been the case during the entire 2021 fantasy campaign, the point of this column is to assist in alleviating any unease.

I have looked through fantasy lineup questions on the B/R app and selected some that should aid both the fantasy managers who posed them and others in setting a winning Week 17 lineup.

Let's grab some glory.  

Wide-Open Wideout Call

Danny Karnik/Associated Press

I play full PPR and need help choosing a third WR between (Tyler) Lockett, (Amari) Cooper, (K.J.) Osborn and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Please and thank you—fighting for back-to-back champs. -- @JA1108letsgo

You're choosing between these guys for your third receiver? I have leagues where I'd be glad to have these as my overall options at the position.

There's one receiver that can be ruled out pretty easily here. Even with Adam Thielen on injured reserve, K.J. Osborn of the Minnesota Vikings just doesn't have the upside that the other three wideouts possess.

Among this group, the receiver with the most potential to post a week-winning stat like is likely Tyler Lockett of the Seattle Seahawks. Lockett has four games this season with 25-plus points-per-reception points, including a 5/142/1 line against Houston in Week 14.

The problem is that Lockett also has the lowest fantasy floor of the three remaining options, so unless you feel like you need a massive number from this spot, he's a tad too risky in a must-win game for my blood.

Amari Cooper of the Dallas Cowboys has some "smash" potential too. He has hit the 20-point mark three times, including seven catches for 85 yards and a score last week against Washington. But Cooper shares targets with CeeDee Lamb. And Michael Gallup. And Dalton Schultz.

All those mouths to feed means Cooper's target share can vacillate considerably. He had 11 targets a week ago and 14 targets combined over the three games preceding it.

Meanwhile, Amon-Ra St. Brown has emerged as Detroit's No. 1 receiver. He has been remarkably consistent—St. Brown has at least 11 targets, eight catches and 70 yards in each of the past four games. In three of those games, St. Brown found the end zone.

Jared Goff is off the COVID-19 list (although he missed Wednesday's practice with a knee injury), but whether it's Goff or Tim Boyle under center, St. Brown should again see a huge target share—especially with fellow wideout Josh Reynolds now on the COVID-19 list.

Odd though it may seem, the rookie is the best play here.

The Call: Amon-Ra St. Brown 

Dare Ogunbo"who?"le

John Munson/Associated Press

Fighting for the championship and need a wide receiver and a flex out of Terry McLaurin, Michael Carter, Amon-Ra (St. Brown), (Rex) Burkhead and (Dare) Ogunbowale. Went 11-3 this year thanks to your advice. Thank you! -- @ericl427

First off, you're welcome. I can't take credit for your success, though. All I do is offer advice and the reasoning behind it. The decisions made based on it are all you.

Now, let's get that 'ship.

The wide receiver call is easy. As talented as Terry McLaurin may be, his fantasy value has been obliterated by lousy QB play in the nation's capital. He's also in a prolonged funk, with just 12 catches for 164 yards over the past five games combined.

That's 28.4 PPR points. St. Brown had 26 points last week alone.

The flex call is trickier, largely because the most talented back of the lot has an atrocious matchup.

Michael Carter of the Jets has flashed his explosiveness this season, including over 100 rushing yards a week ago against the Jaguars. But in Week 17, the Jets don't face the Jags—they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and one of the NFL's best run defenses.

Opponents just don't run on Tampa. Period. Carter's out.

Rex Burkhead of the Houston Texans had a huge game last week against the Chargers, recording 149 yards and two scores on 22 carries. Expecting the journeyman scatback to repeat that career game feels like chasing ghosts, though, especially against a San Francisco defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Trusting Dare Ogunbowale of the Jaguars in this biggest of games is the sort of decision that gives fantasy managers heartburn. The 72 total yards and a score that the fifth-year pro tallied a week ago isn't a stat line that inspires a ton of confidence.

But Ogunbowale had 19 touches last week against the Jets after James Robinson got hurt. He also has the best fantasy matchup at his position of the trio by a fairly sizable margin.

I'm willing to sacrifice a little potential ceiling here for what appears to be the best floor of the bunch.

The Calls: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Dare Ogunbowale  

What Can Brown Do for You?

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Your column is the highlight of me week and I cannot wait until Thursdays. I need your help this week against No. 1 seed. 12-team PPR need 1 WR and 2 Flex—(Michael) Pittman Jr., Hollywood Brown, A.J. Brown, OBJ (Odell Beckham), Eli Mitchell, RoJo (Ronald Jones), (Tony) Pollard. Thanks, and Happy Holidays to you and yours! -- @Klutch36

Appreciate the kind words and holiday greetings (right back at you).

The wide receiver call here is easy-peasy. In his first game back from injury last week, A.J. Brown of the Titans was targeted 16 times, catching 11 for 145 yards and a score.

With Indy's Michael Pittman Jr. facing an uncertain situation under center and Odell Beckham Jr. of the Rams and Marquise Brown of the Ravens a pair of up-and-down fantasy options, A.J. Brown is the play by a country mile.

One of the flex spots is easy too. Ronald Jones II of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was decent in his first game as the lead back a week ago, topping 80 total yards with a score. The touches should be there Sunday against a Jets team allowing the most PPR points to running backs in the league. He's a definite go.

After that, things get cloudy. Elijah Mitchell of the San Francisco 49ers has shined when healthy this season, but the rookie hasn't played since Week 13.

Still, Mitchell returned to practice in a limited fashion Wednesday. Provided he doesn't suffer a setback and is out there against the Houston Texans on Sunday, the second spot is his.

If, however, Mitchell doesn't play, Tony Pollard's uncertain workload behind Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas makes the Plan B call one of the remaining receivers.

If Carson Wentz clears the COVID-19 list, then Pittman is the alternate. If he doesn't (which appears the more likely scenario), then Beckham gets the nod over Marquise Brown. Can't trust any Ravens pass-catcher not named Mark Andrews.

The Calls: A.J. Brown, Ronald Jones II, Elijah Mitchell. 

You Hurt Tyreek's Feelings

John Cordes/Associated Press

Need 3 WR, Full PPR league. Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, Zay Jones, A.J. Green, D.J. Moore or MVS (Marquez Valdes-Scantling)? -- @bcvaughn19

OK, we'll pretend that you didn't actually ask me if you should start Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs, who is currently fifth among all receivers in PPR points for the season.

Um…yeah. You're gonna want to go ahead and trot him out. Yes, he posted a dud in Week 16. Yes, he struggled physically in that game. But if Hill is active, you start him. Period.

For the second spot, the play is Jarvis Landry of the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's moribund passing attack doesn't afford Landry the highest fantasy ceiling, but he's averaging almost nine targets a game over the last month. He has topped 15 PPR points twice over that four-game span.

Next, we're going to rule out a pair of boom/bust types in Zay Jones of the Raiders and Marquez Valdes-Scantling of the Packers. Both players are a threat to catch a long touchdown, but both are also a threat to get three targets and catch one pass for 17 yards.

You can't afford that kind of faceplant—not this week.

That leaves two wideouts for one spot: DJ Moore of the Carolina Panthers and A.J. Green of the Arizona Cardinals. Both face significant questions, whether it's the sad state of Carolina's passing game or Green's wildly varying target share.

It's that target share that breaks the tie here. The bump in production some hoped for from Green after DeAndre Hopkins went down just hasn't come.

While Moore hasn't been great, he's been steady at least—he's been targeted 10 or more times in four straight games and eclipsed 10 PPR fantasy points in every contest ahead of a matchup with a Saints defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

The Calls: Tyreek Hill, Jarvis Landry, DJ Moore

A Penny for Your Thoughts

Jacob Kupferman/Associated Press

Half PPR league. I have to pick two RBs. (D'Andre) Swift, (Rashaad) Penny, (Elijah) Mitchell, (Ronald) Jones II, Darrel Williams -- @Trojonmon

There is more than one league where I'd give a kidney to have these options to choose from in the backfield.

What? I have two.

The first thing we're going to do here is rule two of these running backs out. D'Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions and Elijah Mitchell of the 49ers have shown they can be difference-makers in fantasy leagues when healthy. But neither is, and whether it's Swift's shoulder or Mitchell's knee, the chance for reaggravation and/or a reduced workload in their first game back adds a measure of risk that should be avoided if possible.

In this case, it is. So avoid it.

Just as with an earlier question, we're going to slot Tampa's Ronald Jones II in one of these spots. Jones should see 15-plus touches against the NFL's third-worst run defense in a game where the Buccaneers will all but certainly be playing from ahead. Over 100 total yards and a score are well within reach.

The final spot comes down to Rashaad Penny of the Seahawks and Darrel Williams of the Chiefs. Penny has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in two of the past three games, but sandwiched in between those big games was a dud. The Seattle offense has also been a pitching and lurching mess this year.

For that reason, Darrel Williams of the Chiefs is the play. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire likely out, Williams will probably see a sizable bump in touches this week against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has had issues with running backs who are dangerous pass-catchers out of the backfield.

Williams' chances for a positive game script and a short-yardage touchdown are substantially higher than Penny's.

The Calls: Ronald Jones II, Darrel Williams

Contingency Theater

Peter Aiken/Associated Press

With some luck made it through last week. This time it's for all the marbles against the guy who beat me in the championship last year. CeeDee Lamb, Devin Singletary or Darrel Williams (depending on if I can get him off waivers, which I think I can) at Flex. .25 PPR. Thank You! -- @st99

Ah, the joys of the Week 17 waiver claim. If it makes you feel any better, I'm going into waivers hoping I can get Dare Ogunbowale of the Jaguars to start as my RB2.

Sigh. I'm a dead man.

Anyways, to the question at hand. Regardless of whether you acquire Williams or not, the one player on this list that should not be in lineups is Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary.

Yes, the third-year pro has eclipsed 75 total yards with a touchdown each of the past two games. But trusting the Bills run game is asking for trouble, even in a favorable matchup with the Falcons. Singletary has 55 rushing yards in a game all of twice since Week 4.

The chances for a dud are just too high.

The "Plan B" play here is Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. With just a quarter-point for receptions, wide receivers lose quite a bit of shine here as flex plays, but Lamb has 60 or more receiving yards and/or nine-plus targets in three of the past four weeks ahead of facing an Arizona Cardinals team giving up the 10th-most PPR points to receivers.

Still, if you can get him, Williams is the guy here. Over a five-week span earlier this season, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire was injured, Williams averaged almost 19 touches a game, eclipsed 75 total yards a game four times and topped 100 total yards twice.

The Call: Darrel Williams

Three from Five

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Championship week in a standard league. Need to pick of the following 5. Saquon (Barkley), Najee (Harris), (David) Montgomery, RoJo (Ronald Jones), Javonte (Williams). -- @AQ313

I swear sometimes y'all post these running back questions just to hurt me. What I wouldn't do for these options vs. what I get to sift through most of the time.

(Sniffle).

We'll start here with a quick "yes" and a quick "no." The yes is Tampa's Ronald Jones II against a New York Jets defense that allows 141.3 yards per game on the ground. The "no" is Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, who has as many games this season with 65 rushing yards as you and I do.

Barkley's 2021 season was a complete bust. There's no point pretending differently.

Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers needs to get one of the remaining two spots for one simple reason—workload. The Pittsburgh ground game has had its issues this season, but Harris has been an offensive focal point each and every week. Just once in the past month has Harris touched the ball fewer than 20 times, and in the Steelers' first meeting with the Browns this season, Harris racked up 120 total yards and a score on 29 touches.

We're left with two backs and one spot…and a decision. The safer play is David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears, who just recorded 106 total yards in last week's win over the Seattle Seahawks.

The better matchup goes to Javonte Williams of the Denver Broncos, who faces a Chargers defense that has allowed over 140 yards a game on the ground and the third-most fantasy points to running backs in standard scoring.

However, while Williams is a talented back with a great matchup, Denver's maddening insistence of splitting the workload with Melvin Gordon III has limited the rookie's fantasy value.

Montgomery has a top-10 fantasy matchup of his own in Week 17 and doesn't carry the workload concerns that Williams does. Spot No. 3 belongs to Monty.

The Calls: Najee Harris, Ronald Jones II, David Montgomery

DraftKings DFS Question of the Week

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

With no Thursday night football adding more players (and potential values) to the player pool for the DraftKings Week 17 Fantasy Football Millionaire Contest, who is the one "elite" option most worth paying up for? -- @RodTidwell

An argument can be made that none of the high-end plays at DraftKings this week are the "best" on. In a massive tournament like the Fantasy Football Millionaire Contest, it's almost as important to avoid chalk plays as it is to score points. You need a lineup that is equal parts high-scoring and unique.

Hey, if winning the thing was easy, we'd all be millionaires.

With that said, if you look at, say, the top-three players at every position, there is one guy that stands out as the big-ticket player most worth breaking the bank.

Most weeks, Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts [DK DFS VALUE: $9,000] is that guy. But while the Colts draw a Las Vegas Raiders team in Week 17 allowing the third-most DK points to running backs this year, the potential absence of Carson Wentz (COVID-19) adds some risk to plunging much of salary into the league's leading rusher.

There is no such risk with Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp [DK DFS VALUE: $9,500]. The season that Kupp has had in 2021 is nothing short of amazing. He leads the league in receptions (132) and yardage (1,734) by a massive margin and has three more receiving scores than any other player.

What really makes Kupp worth all that scratch ahead of a top-five fantasy matchup with a floundering Ravens secondary is the robotic consistency he has shown. Kupp has twice as many games this season with over 30 PPR fantasy points as he does games with under 20.

He's as bust-proof a play as I can ever remember at wide receiver. And I remember quite a lot.

The Call: Cooper Kupp

Rapid Fire

Laurence Kesterson/Associated Press

For the final time in 2021, we'll wrap up this week's Start/Sit column by ho-ho-handling some answers to app user questions in rapid-fire style.

Have more Start/Sit questions? Leave them in the comments. I try to spend a few hours there on Friday and/or Saturday, answering as many as possible.

I hope that you folks enjoyed reading this column half as much as I enjoyed writing it. Good luck in your championship games, and I hope you all have a safe and Happy New Year!

Championship game. A.J. Brown or (Amon-Ra) St. Brown at Flex? -- @NO_USER

That St. Brown has been a valuable fantasy asset over the last month is undeniable. But Brown was fantasy football's third-highest scoring wide receiver last week, and he should again see a robust target share Sunday against a Dolphins defense that has surrendered the ninth-most PPR points to wide receivers in 2021. Brown is the play.

In the finals trying to figure out which running backs to start in .5 PPR between Damien Harris, Aaron Jones, Sony Michel or Ronald Jones. Pick 2. -- @cruzc23

I think I have already made it pretty clear that Ronald Jones II of the Buccaneers is a great Week 17 play against a soft Jets defense. Sony Michel is the unquestioned lead back for the Rams now, but the Ravens have one of the league's best run defenses and an injury-ravaged secondary—he's a pass. Rhamondre Stevenson's return to practice in New England adds risk to trusting Damien Harris, even in a favorable matchup. So we'll go Jones times two. Aaron Jones is splitting time with A.J. Dillon in the Green Bay backfield, but he has at least 65 total yards and/or a score in three straight.

(Jalen) Hurts or (Aaron) Rodgers at QB? -- @ptdillon

There's not really a "wrong" answer to this question. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Aaron Rodgers of State Farm should excel in top-10 fantasy matchups in Week 17. But Hurts plays a Washington Football Team that leads the NFL in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and back in Week 15, Hurts lit up Washington for 344 total yards, three touchdowns (including two on the ground) and the third-most fantasy points of the week at his position. Roll with Hurts.

(Joe) Burrow vs. Chiefs or Russ (Wilson) vs. Lions? -- @KCDrew

This feels like a person who wants to avoid a conflict of rooting interests. Too bad. If you want to win a fantasy title, Burrow is the easy call. He just set a franchise record for passing yards by a Bengals quarterback with 525, draws a Chiefs team allowing the fifth-most points to quarterbacks and has averaged almost three fantasy points a game more than the disappointing Wilson has in a down 2021.

(Rashaad) Penny, (Josh) Jacobs, (Chase) Edmonds and CEH (Clyde Edwards-Helaire). Which two should I start? -- @M3tro_Nate

Edwards-Helaire is the easiest scratch. Even if his bruised shoulder allows the second-year back to play, he's likely going to be severely limited. Similarly, Chase Edmonds of the Cardinals will probably see a more limited workload than Penny and Jacobs by virtue of the potential return of James Conner. Penny and Jacobs are easily the best bets to see 15 or more carries, and those carries are opportunities to score fantasy points.

Dallas Cowboys Defense or New Orleans Saints Defense? -- @dcestrealla 22

From a matchup perspective, the Saints are the much better play. They take on a Carolina Panthers team that is allowing the most fantasy points to team defenses in the NFC. But the Cowboys are fantasy's highest-scoring defense and just posted a gonzo stat line against Washington that included two touchdowns. The Cowboys are just too hot to sit, even if their matchup isn't ideal.

Boston Scott, Rex Burkhead, (Dare) Ogunbowale. Pick one RB2. -- @bburh

Thanks to injuries, I face this exact call in a league this week. Rex Burkhead of the Texans is out—last week feels like a fluke, and the game script this week against the 49ers projects much more negatively than the upset of the Chargers. Jacksonville's Dare Ogunbowale should see a solid workload in a matchup that's better than many think, but the Jags could also fall behind and have to go pass-heavy. Boston Scott of the Eagles has a plus matchup with Washington, and Jordan Howard's stinger and Miles Sanders' hand injury could mean a bump in touches. Scott is my first choice here, but it is admittedly a close call.

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Fantasy points allowed and scoring data courtesy of My Fantasy League.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.