NFL Injury Situations That Could Decide Playoff Races

The NFL has seen no shortage of injuries that could dramatically swing playoff races in 2021. 

Some of those, such as cornerback Jaire Alexander going to injured reserve with a shoulder injury, haven't prevented the Green Bay Packers from sprinting to a 7-2 start. 

But other teams haven't been so lucky. Injuries to key contributors and/or at premium positions have or will likely hurt a team's chances at the playoffs. Thanks to recent rules changes, though, it's also worth considering how players who might come back off injured reserve could impact playoff races down the stretch, too. 

Below, we'll look at the most notable injury situations ahead of the scuffle for playoff seeding, omitting teams that don't figure to be in the race and only highlighting recent injuries. 

Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints

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Before his injury, Jameis Winston had led the New Orleans Saints to a 5-2 start, exceeding expectations without star wideout Michael Thomas. 

Over seven appearances, Winston had thrown 14 touchdowns against three interceptions, making the most of his chance at being Drew Brees' long-term successor and positioning the Saints as contenders. But a season-ending knee injury means the Saints have turned to Trevor Siemian and/or Taysom Hill. 

While the Saints overcame Winston's injury in a Week 8 win over NFC South-leading Tampa Bay, Siemian's first start resulted in a 25-of-41 line with two touchdown passes in a 27-25 loss to the previously 3-4 Atlanta Falcons. 

The rest of the team wasn't without fault (wideout drops, poor offensive line play) in that loss, but Saints head coach Sean Payton already had to field questions about benching Siemian. 

With Hill lurking as a threat to take the starting job, this is probably a sign of things to come for the 5-3 Saints. The offense might not have the juice to catch Tampa Bay in the division, .500 Atlanta isn't that far behind and at least one wild-card spot is almost guaranteed to go to the NFC West. The Saints have three more division games and tough matchups like Tennessee, Buffalo and Dallas. 

Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans

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Losing a running back normally wouldn't seem like that big of a deal. 

But Derrick Henry is anything but normal. 

Henry looked like an MVP contender, if not a favorite, over his first eight games, rushing for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns on 219 carries after rushing for 2,027 yards and 17 scores last year. 

However, Henry suffered a foot injury that requires surgery and will hold him out in the six- to 10-week range, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That means he could still return this season, but in the interim, the Tennessee Titans will turn to the trio of Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols and D'Onta Foreman to shoulder the load.

That plan worked out just fine in Week 9, a 28-16 win over the Los Angeles Rams as Foreman and McNichols combined for 53 yards on 12 carries and Peterson scored a touchdown. But the latter, now 36 years old, averaged just 2.1 yards per carry over 10 attempts. 

While the Titans are 7-2, opponents can modify game plans without worrying about Henry in the coming weeks. This will place more pressure on Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown just 11 scores and eight picks. 

Looking at three more division games and challenging encounters with New Orleans, New England and Pittsburgh, the lack of Henry could mean losing a grip on the AFC's top seed. But so long as the Titans maintain a playoff spot, they can remain optimistic in getting Henry just in time for the postseason.

Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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It's almost too easy to hand-wave any non-Tom Brady injury for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because the defending champs have an embarrassment of riches on both sides of the ball. 

But that doesn't mean the Buccaneers won't be impacted in the race for playoff seeding. 

Case in point, tight end Rob Gronkowski is an unknown while dealing with back spasms. Wide receiver Antonio Brown has an ankle issue. With the former, he's a 32-year-old who returned from retirement last year and has only made it into four games this year. The latter was expected back in Week 10, per Rapoport, only to still be in a walking boot. 

Effectively down both in Week 8 (Gronk played just six snaps before exiting), Tampa Bay took an NFC South loss to New Orleans. It's easy to forget that Gronk and Brown had four receiving scores apiece, tied for second on the team, while Brown averages a team-high 14.4 yards per catch. 

While Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are undoubtedly amazing on their own, opposing defenses can throw more resources than usual at them. Add Gronk's injury history, plus the fickle nature of back injuries (and ankle injuries for wideouts who need to make sharp cuts), and it means nothing is a guarantee in the NFC South over four more divisional games. Tampa Bay also resides in a conference where every division leader has at least six wins. 

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks

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It's desperation time for Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks. 

At 3-5, the team doesn't have a great chance at catching eight-win Arizona or seven-win Los Angeles in the NFC West. But with most non-divisional wild-card contenders at .500 or worse, a good homestretch could still mean playoffs. 

Wilson has to be back to his usual self in a hurry, though, starting in Week 10. Seattle went just 2-2 despite Wilson completing 72.5 percent of his passes for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. They have since gone 1-3, including the game Wilson had to exit early, only defeating two-win Jacksonville.

Keep in mind, though—this is a finger injury that required surgery and pins. This sort of injury is tricky for a quarterback to navigate, and things looked so dire that the team admitted to looking at free agents like Cam Newton. 

However, Wilson, plus the potential return of running back Chris Carson from a neck injury that has limited him to four games, could dramatically alter the NFC playoff seeding. They still get four more NFC West games and a heavyweight NFC slugfest with Green Bay this Sunday. 

Kyler Murray, J.J. Watt and the Arizona Cardinals

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Every game is precious in the NFC, especially the NFC West, even for an 8-1 team like the Arizona Cardinals. 

Those Cardinals dodged a proverbial bullet in Week 9, getting a 31-17 win over three-win San Francisco on the road while missing MVP-contending quarterback Kyler Murray to an ankle injury.

Murray has completed 72.7 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions over eight appearances. He's also added three scores on the ground. According to USA Today's Tyler Dragon, Murray's injury continues to get better, but that the team wants "to do what's best for Murray long-term."

If Murray remains out, it would be a Week 10 home game against four-win Carolina and possibly a road trip to Seattle (3-5) in Week 11 before a Week 12 bye. 

Also worth pointing out on the other end of injury news is the possible return of J.J. Watt, who appeared in seven games before suffering a shoulder injury. He generated one sack on 77 percent of the defensive snaps but still earned a respectable 79.5 Pro Football Focus grade (in the "starter" range). 

Murray is the big talking point, of course, but a late-season return by Watt could make a defense that has nine sacks from Markus Golden and six from Chandler Jones even deadlier come playoff time. 

Nick Chubb, Jack Conklin and the Cleveland Browns

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Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns offense need all the help they can get from the running game and offensive line. 

That would typically sound strange with the team coming off a 41-16 win over Cincinnati, but that Bengals defense also let up 400-plus passing yards to New York Jets backup Mike White the week prior. 

Most of this centers on Mayfield because he's playing through a shoulder injury that will require offseason surgery, according to Rapoport. That, at least in part, explains the 5-4 start for the Browns and his six touchdowns and three interceptions over seven games before beating up on the Bengals. 

Key to competing in an AFC North boasting four teams with at least five wins are the returns of running back Nick Chubb and right tackle Jack Conklin. 

Chubb, owner of 721 yards, six rushing scores and eight plays of 20-plus yards over seven games, is now on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Primary backup Kareem Hunt, who averaged 5.2 yards per rush over 69 attempts with five scores, remains on injured reserve with a calf injury. 

Conklin, one of the NFL's best offensive tackles, dislocated his elbow and landed on injured reserve. The Browns average nearly seven yards per carry when running behind him, per Sharp Football. Blake Hance, who previously started at left tackle for Jedrick Wills Jr., takes over the spot and has earned a 60.6 PFF grade with two sacks allowed over 318 snaps. 

With four AFC North games left, dates against New England, Las Vegas and Green Bay, and a starting passer playing through injury, the possible returns of two backs and a tackle could be the difference that dramatically swings the entire AFC playoff picture.