Buying or Selling NFL's Early Sophomore Slumps

Although it's early in the NFL season, it's already evident that some of last year's standout rookies are mired in sophomore slumps.

Based on how well they played last year and the talent surrounding them, these second-year stars should be faring better in 2021.

The situation is far from hopeless for many, as there is plenty of time to turn things around. But not all these second-year players will accomplish that, with some likely to wind up struggling for the remainder of the campaign.

Let's look at which slumping sophomores are poised to get back to form and which will continue to underperform.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

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The Dolphins may already be regretting the decision to build their offense around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The injury-prone Tagovailoa made it through one full game before landing on IR with a rib injury. While it's hard to fault the signal-caller for taking hits behind Miami's patchwork offensive line, he has performed poorly even when the pocket has been clean.

In the opener, Tagovailoa went a meager 16-of-27 passing for 202 yards and a touchdown. The 23-year-old was responsible for an interception and took two sacks in a narrow 17-16 victory over the Patriots.

The Hawaii native looked even worse in Week 2 against the Bills. He completed one of his four throws for 13 yards and exited after being sacked twice. 

Tagovailoa seems to have regressed as a passer. Nearly a quarter of his throws (23.3 percent) this season have been labeled as "bad" by Pro Football Reference, up from 18.8 percent as a rookie. Seventy percent have been on target, down from 74.1 percent in 2020.

The Alabama product has failed to make an impact as a rusher, an especially disappointing development given Miami's offensive line woes. Instead of eluding pressure and making plays with his legs when the pocket collapses, Tagovailoa has managed a measly one yard on four totes.

PFF has graded out Tagovailoa at 55.9 in his limited snaps this year, a distinguishable drop from his already middling 65.4 last year.

Tagovailoa is eligible to return in Week 6 against the Jaguars. It's a beatable defense, one that a franchise quarterback should do well against. If Tagovailoa—who resumed throwing last week—can't get it going against this foe, he's going to continue struggling all year.

Verdict: Buying That He'll Continue to Struggle

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

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The Colts had one of the most promising running back situations in the league last year. Jonathan Taylor exploded for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns in 15 games during his rookie campaign, setting expectations high for 2021.

Until Monday night, Taylor was struggling to live up to them.

After a slow start to the year, the Indianapolis back went off for 169 yards and two touchdowns on 18 touches against the Ravens.

It was the breakout game Colts fans were hoping for. Some may have been concerned for the 22-year-old after a series of quiet contests to start the year, but Taylor had doing well even with the limited amount of work he was getting.

While many expected the back to see 20-plus touches a game this season, big deficits have led to the Indianapolis offense throwing more and therefore not getting Taylor enough carries. 

The Colts are off to an extremely poor start, going 1-4. After making the playoffs last year during Philip Rivers' lone season under center, the franchise hasn't made as seamless of a transition to Carson Wentz.

Taylor has still been making things happen whenever he gets the ball. The back's yards per touch shot up to 6.0 after his huge Monday Night Football outing, now ranking No. 7 among running backs. Last year, he finished No. 12 at the position with a 5.5 yards-per-touch average.

Taylor's is well on pace to surpass his 2020 performance as a receiver. He's already caught 14 of his 16 targets for 197 yards and two touchdowns over five games after bringing in 36 of 39 targets for 299 yards and one score all of last year.

PFF has graded Taylor's 2021 at a 71.2, still a commendable number after he earned an 83.9 as a rookie.

If the Colts can better protect Wentz and avoid falling behind by large margins, Taylor should get plenty of work. It'll be tough to match his first-year rushing numbers, but this talented young back has plenty of big games ahead.

Verdict: Selling That He'll Continue to Struggle

WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

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Brandon Aiyuk began his career by recording 60 catches for 748 yards and five touchdowns in just 12 games. That rookie season led to plenty of buzz going into his second year—hype the Arizona State product has failed to live up to.

Through five games, Aiyuk has notched a pedestrian eight receptions for 90 yards and a score. 

The 23-year-old is struggling to carve out the same role in San Francisco's offense. After starting the year without a single target in Week 1, Aiyuk's usage hasn't improved much in the games since.

Aiyuk has yet to eclipse 40 receiving yards in any contest after breaching that mark eight times last year. He has just one game with more than two catches, another feat he accomplished eight times in 2020.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged Aiyuk's struggles and said that they weren't for a lack of effort (per Jose Luis Sanchez III of SI.com):

"He's trying to work on being more consistent and it's still a work in progress. We're going to keep pushing him hard at that. Not a lack of effort. B.A.'s working at it and I expect him to keep trying to get better here."

Sanchez noted that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo preferred targeting Deebo Samuel and George Kittle during training camp and continued those trends during the regular season. However, even with Garoppolo sidelined in Week 5, Aiyuk was targeted only four times by backup Trey Lance, a signal-caller he seemed to have more chemistry with in practices.

Aiyuk's significant drop-off is reflected in his PFF grades. He is scoring a mediocre 59.0 after garnering an 80.1 last year.

Aiyuk's slump may only get worse with San Francisco clearly preferring to run and other pass-catchers well ahead in the pecking order. Barring an unexpected development, Aiyuk is going to continue struggling in 2021.

Verdict: Buying That He'll Continue to Struggle

Edge Chase Young, Washington Football Team

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After four sackless weeks, Chase Young finally recorded one this past Sunday.

The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year started the 2021 season off slow, accruing a meager 13 tackles, two QB hits and one pass deflection over the first month.

More was expected from the Ohio State product after a monster 2020 campaign. Young drew accolades with 44 tackles, 7.5 sacks, four pass deflections, four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries last year.

He had a breakout game in Week 5, recording three tackles, one QB hit, one forced fumble and a sack against the Saints.

It was the first time Young stuffed the stat sheet in 2021, but he's still been making an impact each week and has been a nightmare for opposing linemen to deal with.

Pro Football Reference advanced stats show the edge-rusher already has nine pressures to his name and is on pace to exceed last year's 24 pressures. Young has also recorded six QB hurries compared to 10 in 2020.

While Young has work to do to reach last year's 87.2 PFF grade, the site has given him a respectable 71.6 for his efforts this season.

Expect more games like the one Young just put together soon. He may have gotten off to a slow start, but the 22-year-old's sophomore slump will be short-lived.

Verdict: Selling That He'll Continue to Struggle

CB L'Jarius Sneed, Kansas City Chiefs

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As one of the only rookie cornerbacks to have a quality season last year, big things were expected from L'Jarius Sneed in 2021. That hasn't happened, however, as Sneed has been slumping with the rest of the Kansas City defense early in the campaign.

Sneed was a force in coverage last year. He was targeted 52 times and gave up a 59.6 percent completion rate, allowing just 13 first downs while defensing seven passes and securing three interceptions.

This season, Sneed is allowing an 80 percent completion rate, and his one touchdown given up already matches his 2020 total. Opposing QBs have a 123.9 rating when targeting the Louisiana Tech product, significantly higher than last year when they had a 54.2 rating against him.

After earning a strong 72.9 PFF grade for his rookie campaign, Sneed's grade has dipped to 52.1. 

The Chiefs haven't been able to stop the opposition's passing game through five games. They are conceding more passing yards—296.4 per game—than all but three teams. With Sneed playing 98 percent of the snaps, foes have hung a league-high 32.6 points per game on this defense. 

Sneed hit a new low in Week 5 when he was hurdled by Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Overall, the Chiefs let Allen amass 315 yards and three scores on just 15 completions.

Kansas City may need to make some significant changes soon. One of those may be reducing Sneed's workload after his miserable start.

Verdict: Buying That He'll Continue to Struggle