Pretender or Contender: Which NFL Teams Are for Real in 2021?

Many of the top Super Bowl contenders have lived up to expectations with a series of victories to start the year. However, several unheralded clubs have gotten off to surprisingly strong starts.

Seven teams that failed to make the playoffs last year have won at least three of their first four games.

These teams can be some of the toughest to figure out, so let's take a closer look and figure out which have a real shot at contending for a Super Bowl and which are going to fall off over the final three months of the regular season.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1): Pretender

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The Cincinnati Bengals have beaten the Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, who are a combined 2-10 through Week 4. While no one should fault them for racking up victories against underwhelming teams, their schedule is about to become far more daunting.

In Week 5, they'll welcome the 3-1 Green Bay Packers to Paul Brown Stadium. They also have a Week 7 road date with the 3-1 Baltimore Ravens and a Week 9 home game against the 3-1 Cleveland Browns before their Week 10 bye. 

The Bengals have scored only 92 points, which puts them third in the AFC North behind the Ravens (105) and Browns (100). Although their defense has given up only 75 points so far, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson will put them to the test in the next few weeks.

Even if the Bengals make it to their bye week around .500, a brutal end-of-season schedule could derail their playoff hopes. Their final eight games come against the Las Vegas Raiders, Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and Browns.

With running back Joe Mixon now week-to-week with an ankle sprain, the dynamic duo of second-year quarterback Joe Burrow and rookie wideout Ja'Marr Chase will have to carry this Bengals squad through some upcoming potential shootouts. 

Denver Broncos (3-1): Pretender

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Much like the Bengals, the Denver Broncos feasted on a soft early slate of opponents to rocket out to a 3-0 record. Despite their convincing victories against the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, it was still fair to wonder how they'd fare against tougher foes.

They got their first real test Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, and it didn't end well.

Starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was only 7-of-16 for 65 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a concussion. Backup Drew Lock went 12-of-21 for 113 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in the second half, and the Ravens cruised to a 23-7 victory.

The Broncos' rushing attack has been a bright spot this season, and the backfield duo of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams combined for 104 rushing yards on only 16 carries against Baltimore. However, Denver's defense allowed Lamar Jackson to a season-high 316 yards and didn't force a turnover.

The defense should get back on track against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5. But if Bridgewater misses more time because of his concussion, upcoming games against the Las Vegas Raiders (Week 6), Cleveland Browns (Week 7), Washington Football Team (Week 8) and Dallas Cowboys (Week 9) could cause Denver to slide out of the playoff race.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-1): Pretender

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After winning a pair of overtime games against the Ravens and depleted Dolphins to get to 3-0, Las Vegas finally hit a wall on Monday Night Football, losing by double digits to the Chargers. 

While the Raiders did make some key changes to improve this year—such as installing Gus Bradley as their defensive coordinator—the squad's makeshift offensive line was finally exposed.

The Raiders jettisoned three O-line starters this offseason, a decision that is coming back to haunt this club. Derek Carr has now been sacked 12 times, including a season-high four times against the Bolts.

According to The Athletic's Daniel Popper, Chargers pass-rusher Joey Bosa believes the key to shutting down Vegas' passing attack—which had a league-leading 1,203 yards coming into Week 4—is getting after the signal-caller:

"We knew once we hit him a few times, he really gets shook. And you saw on [Christian Covington's] sack, he was pretty much curling into a ball before we even got back there. Great dude, great player...but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down."

Unless Vegas unearths some quality linemen to replace ineffective protectors like right tackle Alex Leatherwood (34.6 PFF grade), Carr will continue to take a beating.

The Raiders will have a tough time against the Bears and their league-leading 15-sack defense next week.

With the Browns (14 sacks), Broncos (11 sacks) and Eagles (nine sacks) on the docket over the last month of the campaign, Carr and his offensive line will struggle to close the season out strong unless wholesale changes are made.

Los Angeles Chargers (3-1): Contender

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The Chargers are quietly becoming one of the league's best teams.

After dethroning the undefeated Raiders and defending AFC champion Chiefs in back-to-back weeks, the Bolts are now in the AFC West driver's seat.

This team has few flaws, boasting one of the game's best young quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and a ferocious defense that can shut down elite signal-callers.

One of the biggest changes L.A. made this offseason was upgrading the offensive line. New additions Corey Linsley, Matt Feiler and rookie Rashawn Slater have been instrumental in keeping Herbert upright during his critical sophomore campaign.

L.A. now ranks No. 6 in passing offense after amassing 1,134 yards through four weeks. The team has only given up seven sacks, while Herbert has hit on nine touchdowns against three interceptions.

Perhaps even more importantly, the Bolts defense has morphed into one of the top units in the NFL under head coach Brandon Staley. Opponents are averaging a pedestrian 332 yards and 18.5 points per game so far.

The pass rush had its best night of the year against the previously undefeated Raiders, racking up four sacks to bring the total to nine on the year.

If L.A. keeps taking care of the ball and forcing turnovers—the team has a plus-three turnover differential after notching seven takeaways and only four giveaways—this team has a chance to go deep in the postseason.

This franchise will almost certainly be playoff-bound while potentially wearing the AFC West crown for the first time since 2009.

Dallas Cowboys (3-1): Pretender

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The Dallas Cowboys are riding a three-game win streak, and they were the first team to beat the Carolina Panthers with their victory Sunday. However, their defensive issues figure to hold them back from competing for a championship this year.

The Cowboys have allowed nearly 400 yards per game to opposing offenses. They're giving up nearly 10 yards more per game this year than they did last season, when their much-criticized defense struggled to stop anyone during an unsightly 6-10 campaign.

Although the Cowboys have allowed only 81 yards per game on the ground, offenses have been successful taking it to the air against them. The secondary has been especially vulnerable to top-end receivers, as Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and DJ Moore posted at least 90 yards apiece and a combined five touchdowns against them.

The Cowboys' potent offense will keep them in games most weeks. Thanks to quarterback Dak Prescott, one of the leagues' best pass-catching cores and the 1-2 backfield punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, they're averaging 420.8 yards and 31.5 points per game.

But unless they fix their defensive issues, their best-case scenario is winning the downtrodden NFC East and an early playoff exit.

Carolina Panthers (3-1): Pretender

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After opening the season with victories over the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans, the Carolina Panthers lost their first game Sunday to the Dallas Cowboys. 

With star running back Christian McCaffrey sidelined by a hamstring injury, the Panthers hung tough for a half before allowing the Cowboys to reel off 24 unanswered points. They allowed Dallas to average 7.2 yards per carry, and quarterback Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns on only 22 passing attempts.

Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season, but he still managed to throw for 300 yards for the third straight week. Although he tossed two interceptions, he also threw two touchdown passes and scored twice on the ground as well.

Heading into the Nov. 2 NFL trade deadline, the Panthers should seek to upgrade their offensive line. They gave up five sacks Sunday to a Cowboys team that mustered only four over the first three weeks combined. Darnold needs better protectors than Cam Erving (53.3 PFF grade) and guard John Miller (49.2 PFF grade).

The Panthers could also use more production from their tight ends, particularly after trading Dan Arnold to the Jacksonville Jaguars for cornerback C.J. Henderson. Ian Thomas has only five catches on the year, while rookie Tommy Tremble saw only one target on Sunday after scoring his first NFL touchdown in Week 3.

Even if the Panthers stay in playoff contention until December, a brutal end-of-season schedule awaits. They face the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 15, head to New Orleans in Week 17 and have two games against the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Weeks 16 and 18.

Arizona Cardinals (4-0): Contender

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Three years into the Kliff Kingsbury era, the Arizona Cardinals appear to have finally hit their offensive stride. They're averaging 35.0 points and 440.5 yards per game, and they've scored at least 31 points in all four of their games.

Quarterback Kyler Murray is an early front-runner for MVP after completing an NFL-best 76.1 percent of his passes for 1,273 yards and nine touchdowns against four interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and Christian Kirk have all hauled in at least 15 receptions for 225 yards and two touchdowns, while second-round pick Rondale Moore has 16 catches for 211 yards and a score.

Arizona is also getting it done on the ground, with 136.5 rushing yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns. James Conner has emerged as a bruising complement to Chase Edmonds with 172 rushing yards and four scores.

Although the Cardinals defense is more middle-of-the-pack, they've done a great job bending but not breaking. With nine forced turnovers on the year—more than all but two teams this season—they're well on pace to vastly surpass last year's 21 takeaways.

Their blowout Week 4 victory over the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams should be a wake-up call to anyone who didn't take them seriously. Another tough test awaits in Week 6 against the Cleveland Browns, but that's their only remaining road game in October.

If the Cardinals remain this effective on offense, they have the ingredients to make a deep playoff run.