Fantasy Football Week 1: Opening Rankings, Projections, Early Waiver-Wire Tips

The 2021 NFL season is nearly upon us, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys set to kick off Week 1 on Thursday night. For fantasy managers, this means it's time to switch from pre-draft planning to in-season roster management.

Managers who drafted well are likely to have options at multiple positions and perhaps some tough choices to make. We're here to help by examining the best matchups, top options and stat projections for Week 1.

We'll also dive into some early waiver-wire tips for managers looking to gain an edge in roster construction.

Picks and rankings are based on points-per-reception (PPR) scoring.  

Quarterback

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1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 355 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 225 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

3. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 250 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 300 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, 2 TDs

5. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: 300 passing yards, 20 rushing yards, 2 TDs

6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: 335 passing yards, 2 TDs

7. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 275 passing yards, 2 TDs

8. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

9. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 270 passing yards, 2 TDs

10. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 270 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Paying too much attention to Week 1 matchups can be detrimental because of offseason turnover.

Instead of poring over the matchups, it's better to stick with past production and overall rankings in Week 1. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes may be facing a revamped Cleveland Browns defense, but he still has the highest floor of any quarterback in fantasy.

Don't let matchups be your deciding factor in Week 1. Making choices based on the opposition will be more fruitful later in the season once we know how defenses are going to perform.

That said, some Week 1 matchups are hard to pass on. Tom Brady will face a Cowboys defense that ranked 28th in points allowed last season and did virtually nothing to upgrade its pass rush in the offseason.  Likewise, Lamar Jackson is a dual-threat quarterback facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that ranked 24th against the run in 2020.  

Running Back

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1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers: 135 scrimmage yards, 5 receptions, 2 TDs

2. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings: 120 scrimmage yards, 4 receptions, 2 TDs

3. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: 100 scrimmage yards, 6 receptions, 2 TDs

4. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: 140 scrimmage yards, 1 reception, 1 TD

5. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: 120 scrimmage yards, 3 receptions, 1 TD

6. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers: 100 scrimmage yards, 5 receptions, 1 TD

7. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: 105 scrimmage yards, 2 receptions, 1 TD

8. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: 115 scrimmage yards, 1 reception, 1 TD

9. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: 110 scrimmage yards, 1 reception, 1 TD

10. Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team: 120 scrimmage yards, 2 receptions

While proven production and projected roles should take precedence in Week 1—our top three running backs were likely the first three players taken in your fantasy draft—health and availability must also be taken into account.

Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, for example, might be a top-five back in other weeks. However, Dallas has multiple players on the reserve/COVID-19 list who could miss the opener.

According to Michael Gehlen of the Dallas Morning News, nine Cowboys have recently been placed on the reserve/COVID-19—including wideout CeeDee Lamb and guard Zack Martin, who has been ruled out.

"He's frustrated obviously," coach Mike McCarthy said, per ESPN's Todd Archer. "But, hey, this is the world we live in right now."

With one of his best blockers out against a Buccaneers team that ranked first against the run in 2020, Elliott will struggle to even approach the top 10. 

Wide Receiver

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1. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: 6 receptions, 140 yards, 1 TD

2. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs: 5 receptions, 130 yards, 1 TD

3. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills: 7 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

4. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals: 6 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

5. Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons: 5 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD

6. A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans: 5 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

7. DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks: 5 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

8. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: 5 receptions, 105 yards, 1 TD

9. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings: 4 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

10. Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team: 6 receptions, 120 yards

When evaluating wide receivers, the individual matchups can be more important than the team matchups. Arizona Cardinals wideout DeAndre Hopkins, for example, is facing a Tennessee Titans team that ranked 29th against the pass in 2020.

However, offseason addition Janoris Jenkins is likely to spend a lot of time shadowing Hopkins in this game. Last season, Jenkins allowed an opposing quarterback ranking of only 81.8, according to Pro Football Reference.

Hopkins is still likely to have a tremendous game because of his high target share. However, he may not be as dominant as the team matchup initially suggests.

Managers shouldn't bench or start a player based on his individual matchup, but it's wise to know when one has the potential to perform above or below expectations.  

Tight End

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1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: 5 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

2. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: 4 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

3. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders: 6 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD

4. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens: 6 receptions, 90 yards

5. T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions: 5 receptions, 85 yards

6. Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles: 5 receptions, 80 yards

7. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: 3 receptions, 75 yards

8. Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team: 2 receptions, 20 yards, 1 TD

9. Noah Fant, Denver Broncos: 4 receptions, 65 yards

10. Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams: 4 receptions, 60 yards

There are essentially two tiers when it comes to fantasy tight ends. You have the elite three: Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller. And then there's everyone else.

There's a large second tier of tight ends behind the three must-start options. They are of relatively equal value, and they shouldn't require too many tough decisions heading into Week 1.

The outlier here is Atlanta Falcons rookie Kyle Pitts. He's unproven as a pro, but the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft has the physical potential to join the elite tier sooner rather than later. If you're picking between Pitts and another top-10 tight end—not in the big three, of course—you may want to lean on Atlanta's matchup here.

The Philadelphia Eagles were tied for the 11th-most fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends last season, according to FantasyPros.  

Waiver-Wire Tips

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Realistically, managers shouldn't need to attack the realm of the undrafted before the start of Week 1. Those looking to tinker with their bench likely did so right after draft day.

However, there are a few potential targets to consider. New England Patriots rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson, for example, may not have been on many radars in leagues that conducted early drafts. But his stock has jumped following a strong preseason and the trade of Sony Michel.

Look for players like Stevenson who have seen a rise in stock over the past week or so. These are the ones worth picking up before the season starts.

Week 1 is a great place to scout for future waiver-wire targets. Keep an eye on role-players to see how they are utilized early. If, for example, Washington Football Team rookie wideout Dyami Brown repeatedly sees targets in his first professional game, he could be worth a claim on the waiver wire.

The season's first gameweek is also a good place to begin evaluating which players on your bench can be swapped. Don't forget to track injuries too. Injuries always happen, and if a bench player is going to be out for several weeks, it may be time to dump him for a waiver-wire target.

Don't forget that the waiver wire is a tool that should be utilized from Week 1 through the championship round. Smart managers are always looking to upgrade their squads.