Fantasy Football 2021: Christian McCaffrey and Safest Players to Draft No. 1

Successful fantasy-football drafting requires a lot of speculation and a fair amount of risk-taking. However, there's a big difference between betting on a boom-or-bust prospect in the middle rounds and gambling with a first-round selection.

If you're fortunate enough to own the No. 1 pick in your fantasy draft, you shouldn't be gambling at all.

Here, we'll examine four "safe" targets for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy. While injury risks are present for all players, the roles for these players in 2021 are not in question.

Before we get down to our choices, let's examine a two-round, point-per-reception (PPR) mock draft to help illustrate the options.

Two-Round Mock Draft

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Round 1

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

2. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

3. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

4. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

5. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

6. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

7. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

8. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

9. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

10. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

11. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

12. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Round 2

1. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

2. Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

3. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

4. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons

6. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

7. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

8. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

9. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

11. A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans

12. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

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The only real question with Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is whether he can bounce back after ankle and shoulder injuries limited him to three games in 2020. As The Athletic's Gene Clemons pointed out, though, it shouldn't be an issue for fantasy managers.

"It was a concern he faced in college, where he followed up a high-usage season battling injuries the next," Clemons wrote. "He was able to bounce back well and has been a fantastic performer in the NFL. There's no reason to believe he won't be able to do that again this season."

McCaffrey, who topped 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards in 2019, is a PPR machine and will remain Carolina's workhorse this season. He has averaged 114 scrimmage yards, six receptions and just under one touchdown per game for his career.

With McCaffrey expected to be at 100 percent for Week 1, managers simply cannot go wrong taking him first overall.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

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Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook has an injury history that cannot be completely ignored. He has missed at least two games every season as a pro, so managers must be prepared to play a week or two without him in 2021.

That said, Cook's workload as Minnesota's dual-threat centerpiece makes him a safe choice at No. 1 overall. Though he did miss two games in 2020, Cook also averaged 136 scrimmage yards, three receptions and just over a touchdown per contest.

If you're not comfortable with taking McCaffrey at No. 1 after his injury-riddled 2020 campaign, Cook is a fantastic fallback option. However, managers who draft him should be prepared to snag Alexander Mattison as a handcuff.

Mattison started two games in place of Cook last season and produced 175 scrimmage yards, four receptions and two touchdowns in those outings.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

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If you're in a PPR league that heavily values receptions (say, a full point per catch), Alvin Kamara might be your best bet at No. 1.

The New Orleans Saints standout has caught at least 81 passes in every season as a pro. He's also averaged 103 scrimmage yards, five receptions and just under one touchdown per game. Kamara is one of New Orleans' offensive centerpieces, and he relishes the role.

"I don't look at it as a load," Kamara said, per NFL Media's Jim Trotter. "I look at as I'm doing what I've got to do to help my team."

Kamara will be the centerpiece for the Saints while star wideout Michael Thomas continues recovering from June ankle surgery.

The fact that New Orleans is going with a pass-first quarterback in James Winston as their Week 1 starter—over dual-threat Taysom Hill—further raises the floor for this PPR superstar.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

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If you're in a standard scoring league that doesn't care about receptions, Tennessee Titans back Derrick Henry might be your safest choice at No. 1.

The two-time Pro Bowler has led the NFL in rushing yards in two consecutive seasons. Last year, he rushed for 2,027 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns and 114 receiving yards. While Henry may not top 2,000 rushing yards again, he still has an extremely high floor.

Henry will once again be the centerpiece of the Titans offense. However, the addition of wideout Julio Jones may help prevent opposing defenses from gearing up to exclusively stop Henry. The reigning rushing leader will still see his fair share of eight-man fronts, but perhaps only in obvious rushing situations.

Again, Henry isn't a top option for PPR leagues, though he is still worthy of a top-five selection based on his floor. He's a viable No. 1 choice for standard, though, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him lead the league in rushing once again this season.