NHL Stanley Cup Final 2021: Odds, Props, Predictions for Canadiens vs. Lightning

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistJuly 7, 2021

Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) follows a play during the second period of Game 2 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup finals series against the Montreal Canadiens, Wednesday, June 30, 2021, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Tampa Bay Lightning can close out the Stanley Cup Final on home ice on Wednesday. 

Tampa Bay was unable to complete the sweep over the Montreal Canadiens in Monday's Game 4, but they may be in a better situation to win the Stanley Cup inside its own arena. 

Jon Cooper's team put eight goals past Carey Price in the first two games at Amalie Arena, and we could see another offensive outburst led by Nikita Kucherov.

Price was better in Game 4, holding the Lightning to two goals, but the reigning champion still outshot the Canadiens by 13.

If Tampa Bay keeps up its offensive pressure in Game 5, it should finish off the series with some of its stars leading the way.


Stanley Cup Final Game 5 Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Money Line: Tampa Bay (-230; bet $230 to win $100); Montreal (+195; bet $100 to win $195)

Puck Line: Tampa Bay (-1.5)

Over/Under: 5



Over 5

Even though the Lightning recorded their lowest goal total of the series in Game 4, they still put a ton of pressure on Price. 

The Montreal netminder turned away 32 of the 34 shots he faced, but that performance was not in front of a sellout crowd in favor of Tampa Bay. 

The Lightning should have an extra charge within them on Wednesday with the chance to win the Stanley Cup on home ice. 

In Game 1, the Lightning put five goals past Price on 27 shots. Game 3's six-goal output came from 30 attempts. 

Look for the Lightning to get off to a fast start to ease any potential nerves and put Montreal in a deep hole it may not be able to recover from. 

When Tampa Bay clinched the Stanley Cup inside the bubble in 2020, it used a first-period goal from Brayden Point to get ahead. 

That game only produced two goals, but it came on the back of a three-game stretch where each contest went to overtime. 

Tampa Bay will not have tired legs from playing a two-overtime contest two nights prior, and it should be buzzing in front of goal to help push the over above five goals. 

Montreal may contribute a goal or two to the total, but the reason for the over hitting will be Tampa Bay's offense. 


Nikita Kucherov to Score (+138)

Nikita Kucherov contains the lowest odds to score a goal, but he is still worth the play at plus money. 

Kucherov is the only Tampa Bay player with a double-digit shot total in the series, with 15.The second-highest total on the roster is nine. 

He has turned those attempts into a team-best three goals, all of which have come at even strength. His two assists came on the power play. 

Kucherov owns an average ice time of 18 minutes and 59 seconds, which is the second-highest total for a Tampa Bay forward behind Yanni Gourde. Four defensemen averaged over 20 minutes of ice time. 

He could be on the ice even more than his average if Tampa Bay is involved in a close affair, and it either needs to chase a goal, or finish off Montreal in the third period. 

The combination of high ice time and his volume of shots make Kucherov one of the best bets on the board. If you think he will have a great game, he could be worth a small sprinkle at +1000 to score twice.


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Hockey Reference. 

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