The NFL's Best Value Bets to Make in 2021

Patrick Mahomes told Bleacher Report this weekend that it's his goal to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to the first-ever 20-0 season (including playoffs) in NFL history. For what it's worth, DraftKings will pay out +3300 if the Chiefs go 17-0 during the regular season and/or +4000 if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can do the same (they don't play each other, so both could happen). 

Either pick represents a lot of value for a doable—albeit extremely far-fetched—feat, especially if you really believe in Mahomes or legendary Bucs quarterback Tom Brady. 

But there's even more value to be found amid the team and player futures and specials currently on the board at DraftKings.

Here are eight that stand out to me in the heart of the offseason. 

Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs (+475)

The AFC North is tough, but I have a good feeling about the Bengals sneaking into a Wild Card spot. Keep in mind that several surprise teams emerge to make the playoffs every year. Then consider the ingredients the Bengals have with 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow healthy again and supported by guys like Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Jonah Williams.

You're allowed to be concerned about the offensive line and the defense, but those units look improved, and the Bengals actually outscored their opponents in Burrow's nine full appearances in 2020. If he can take off in Year 2 the same way Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray did, then Cincinnati will have a shot. 

You might want to consider taking advantage of the fact only the Houston Texans and New York Jets have worse playoff odds in the AFC, because the Bengals are riding an upward trajectory. 

New York Giants to win the NFC East (+350)

It's been nearly two decades since a team won back-to-back NFC East titles. The division is a completely messy toss-up almost every year, which is why it's always a good strategy to roll the dice on an underdog with momentum. 

With star running back Saquon Barkley expected back from injury and incoming standouts Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Rudolph set to support third-year, first-round quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants certainly have momentum entering 2021. 

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

And while the Washington Football Team is stacked on defense and the Dallas Cowboys have the division's best offense on paper, Washington has major questions at quarterback and we have no idea how Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott will bounce back from a major ankle injury. Throw in the Cowboys' defensive issues and it's hard to get too fired up about that team at +125. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are a true longshot at +500 in what might be a rebuilding season, but the Giants are desperate in a big year for Jones...and that +350 payout is pretty sweet. 

Chicago Bears to win the NFC North (+400)

If you believe Aaron Rodgers won't play for the Green Bay Packers in 2021, this is your chance to buy low on the team that finished second to the Packers in 2020 and has a much higher ceiling with first-round rookie quarterback Justin Fields in 2021. 

Quarterback issues have sunk the Bears in recent years, but Fields is talented enough to change that almost immediately. If he can, the possibilities are endless for a team that is still extremely strong on defense and has great weapons in David Montgomery and Allen Robinson on offense.

The Bears won three of their last four games to make the playoffs in 2020, so there's some pedigree there, too. The presence of Rodgers and the Packers probably means you shouldn't spend big on Chicago (or the Minnesota Vikings at +260 or Detroit Lions at +2000, for that matter), but we have a few surprise division winners every year. The Bears could be worth a flier. 

Tennessee Titans to win the Super Bowl (+4000)

Amazingly, only a dozen teams have lower Super Bowl odds than a Tennessee Titans team that is coming off five consecutive winning campaigns, won 11 games in 2020 and features the reigning Offensive Player of the Year in running back Derrick Henry. 

Tennessee might not be as talented as the Cleveland Browns or Baltimore Ravens, but those two will be fighting with the Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers in the North. And the Buffalo Bills became special in 2020, but the rising Miami Dolphins and revamped New England Patriots could give Buffalo a lot of trouble in the AFC East. 

George Walker IV/Associated Press

Tennessee might have a better shot at a high seed in the AFC simply because they can load up on wins in the AFC South, especially if Carson Wentz can't bounce back from a horrible season in a new setting with the Indianapolis Colts. The Jacksonville Jaguars are rebuilding and the Houston Texans are in shambles. 

A year and a half ago, the Titans held a double-digit lead over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. They also beat Kansas City earlier that season, and we know that Henry can be unstoppable. If he gets hot at the right time and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is on his game, Tennessee can hang with anybody. 

And yet, a $100 bet on the Titans here could land you a cool $4K. 

Tom Brady to win MVP (+1400)

A 44-year-old is unlikely to win MVP, but a 43-year-old was just about as unlikely to win Super Bowl MVP. But here's the thing: Brady admitted that he was still trying to grasp the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playbook midway through the 2020 season. In the final seven games of that campaign, he posted a 110.0 passer rating, and then he put up 10 touchdown passes in the playoffs. 

If he can pick up where he left off with basically the exact same supporting cast, he could easily go toe-to-toe with Mahomes (the favorite at +450). Rodgers (+900) and Buffalo's Josh Allen (+1100) also have much better odds, but the future is in some doubt for the former, and the latter will have to prove his breakout 2020 season wasn't an aberration. 

Alvin Kamara to win MVP (+10000)

Had to give you a longer shot here. The NFC could be wide open if Father Time finally catches up to Brady, and the consistently amazing Kamara could play a massive role for a New Orleans Saints team that simply can't be counted out despite Drew Brees' retirement. 

The Athletic's Larry Holder reported last week that Saints head coach Sean Payton could "lean heavily" on both Kamara and Latavius Murray in 2021, and the former scored a league-high 21 touchdowns before that was completely the case in 2020. 

Najee Harris to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+800)

The Pittsburgh Steelers will undoubtedly be out to prove it made sense to use a first-round pick on a running back, and Harris should be set to make an immediate impact after back-to-back 1,200-plus-yard seasons in which he scored a total of 50 touchdowns at Alabama. 

Rusty Costanza/Associated Press

"It's going to be something to see," Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recently said in anticipation of Harris's rookie season. The pressure is there, and so is the buzz.

And yet, the four quarterbacks who were selected in the top 11 all have better OROY odds than Harris, despite the fact several of them aren't even expected to start Week 1. All four could need time, while Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson could use more support. 

Put it all together and Harris is a great bet at that number. 

Chase Young to win Defensive Player of the Year (+1600)

The 2020 No. 2 overall pick battled injuries and the lack of a proper offseason last year but still came up with 7.5 sacks, four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries for the Washington Football Team. A lot of that production came as things began to click down the stretch, but five players still have better DPOY odds entering 2021. 

Voters could look for an excuse to go in a new direction away from three-time winner Aaron Donald (the favorite at +400), and both Nick and Joey Bosa have had injury issues. Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt won't be easy to beat out either, but a $100 bet on Young with a potential $1600 payout might be worth a shot if you have the budget for it. 

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN/MI only. Odds and lines subject to change. Eligibility restrictions apply. See DraftKings.com/Sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.