Preakness Odds 2021: Picks and Predictions Based on Recent Betting Lines

Jake RillFeatured Columnist IMay 11, 2021

Kentucky Derby entrants Midnight Bourbon, front, and Super Stock get baths after a workout at Churchill Downs Wednesday, April 28, 2021, in Louisville, Ky. The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 1. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Medina Spirit is going to be looking to continue his quest for the Triple Crown on Saturday. That is, if the colt is allowed to participate in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

Following his victory in the Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit tested positive for the steroid betamethasone, as announced by trainer Bob Baffert on Sunday.

There has since been uncertainty over whether the colt will be disqualified and lose his Derby win and be allowed to race in the Preakness, which is something the Maryland Jockey Club has been deliberating over. The Preakness' post position draw has been pushed back a day to Tuesday with those discussions ongoing.

While several other horses that were in the Derby field are expected to be racing in the Preakness, some of the likely top contenders didn't go to Churchill Downs and have instead been preparing for this event.

Here are the odds for this year's Preakness, followed by predictions for the top three finishers.


Preakness Odds

Medina Spirit 7-4

Concert Tour 2-1

O Besos 7-1

Midnight Bourbon 8-1

Risk Taking 8-1

Rombauer 9-1

Tarantino 14-1

Keepmeinmind 14-1

Crowded Trade 16-1

Get Her Number 20-1

Unbridled Honor 20-1

France Go de Ina 25-1

Ram 25-1

Odds via Oddschecker



Whether or not Medina Spirit races in the Preakness, he may not be the Baffert-trained horse that has the best showing at Pimlico. Concert Tour didn't run in the Kentucky Derby and has been preparing for this race instead, which could lead to a strong performance on Saturday.

After winning his first three career races, Concert Tour finished third in the Arkansas Derby last month. However, neither of the horses that placed ahead of him (Super Stock and Caddo River) will be competing in the Preakness.

Concert Tour's jockey will be Mike Smith, who is a two-time Preakness winner and has seven career victories at Triple Crown events. So the colt appears to be set up to fare well at Pimlico, especially if he gets a good starting spot and breaks strong from the gate.

"We figure, this is the race," Baffert said, per the Paulick Report. "The Derby is run. A lot of horses, they went through a lot to get here. [Concert Tour's] sort of a fresh horse. In the Rebel, he looked so good."

It may be the first time that Smith is riding Concert Tour, but it should still be a successful pairing. Expect a strong showing from this colt at the Preakness.

Two other horses that are poised to build off solid Derby showings are Midnight Bourbon and Keepmeinmind.

Midnight Bourbon had finished in the top three in each of his first seven career races, including a second-place showing at the Louisiana Derby in March. However, he didn't fare as well at the Kentucky Derby, ending up in sixth after a slow start forced him to work his way back up through the field.

"He's doing great, wonderful physically. I'm excited to run him in the Preakness," trainer Steve Asmussen said, per the Paulick Report. "... He's just such a beautiful specimen and he goes over the racetrack so pretty."

Keepmeinmind also had a slow start at the Derby, which resulted in him finishing seventh. He has finished fifth or worse in his past three races after starting his career with four consecutive top-three showings.

But he could have a bounce-back race at the Preakness, particularly if he breaks well from the starting gate. And he's apparently impressed during the leadup to Saturday's race.

"He looked very strong," trainer Robertino Diodoro said, per Horse Racing Nation. "... It seems like he's full of himself, that’s for sure. I'm very happy with him."

While Midnight Bourbon and Keepmeinmind will be near the front of the field for much of the Preakness, they're both going to come up a bit short. And the horse that will beat both of them? Concert Tour.

Baffert will earn his eighth career Preakness win (even though he won't be in attendance), as Concert Tour will live up to his high expectations and hold off Midnight Bourbon and Keepmeinmind at the finish line.

Prediction: 1. Concert Tour; 2. Midnight Bourbon; 3. Keepmeinmind.