Predicting Landing Spots for the NFL's Biggest 2021 Trade Targets

Super Bowl LV is in the books. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are your 2020 NFL champions, and the football world is now turning to the 2021 offseason.

Trades are likely to continue to be a huge part of the offseason. The Detroit Lions already sent quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for Jared Goff, a pair of first-round picks and a third-rounder. This jump-started a quarterback carousel that will likely see more movement in the not-too-distant future. 

While quarterbacks will be at the top of the trade list for many teams, other position players will likely draw interest. Here, we'll examine some of the most notable potential trade targets and predict how their situations might unfold.

Factors like team need, player potential, recent rumors and contract and cap situations will factor into the predictions, though we'll leave a little leeway for moves that could happen in the coming weeks—like a surprise cut or a contract restructuring that frees up a chunk of valuable cap room.

Players are listed in alphabetical order.    

WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Ever since Odell Beckham Jr. landed with the Cleveland Browns, it's felt like he has been entrenched in the trade-rumor market. The fact that Cleveland surged offensively after it lost Beckham to a torn ACL in 2020 isn't going to change that.

According to USA Radio Networks host and former NFL player Dan Sileo, the New York Jets are interested in trading for Beckham as part of an effort to attract Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

However, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski seems high on Beckham.

"I'm excited to get him back here," he said in his season-ending press conference.

While quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Browns were indeed better offensively after they lost Beckham, it may have had more to do with the team finally grasping Stefanski's system in his first year in charge.

Expect Cleveland to give Beckham one more chance to prove himself in 2021.  

Prediction: Beckham stays in Cleveland.    

QB Derek Carr

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Jets are not the only team interested in trying to land Watson. The Las Vegas Raiders also appear to be poised to make a run at the 25-year-old gunslinger. Part of their pursuit may involve trading quarterback Derek Carr.

"Several NFL insiders expect the Raiders to field calls from teams inquiring about Carr's availability," Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal wrote. "... Increased demand for his services, insiders say, could create a scenario in which a three-team trade allows the Raiders to acquire Watson."

While Carr isn't on the same level as Watson, he was above-average in 2020. He ranked 11th in passing yards, 11th in passing touchdowns and 10th in passer rating among full-time starters, and he won't turn 30 until March.

One team that has a desperate need at quarterback—and has a relatively recent trade history with the Raiders—is the Chicago Bears, who dealt for Khalil Mack in 2018. Chicago was a playoff team this past season but needs an upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky under center.

According to Howard Eskin of 94 WIP radio, the Bears are looking to snag Carson Wentz from the Philadelphia Eagles. However, Wentz is coming off a terrible season and may need to be rehabilitated into a quality starter. Carr, on the other hand, should be ready to lead the Bears right away.

Prediction: Chicago acquires Carr for a 2021 first-round pick, a 2021 second-round pick and backup QB Nick Foles.     

QB Sam Darnold

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

If the Jets can't land Watson, they could still use the second overall pick in this year's draft on a new signal-caller. If they do, they'll likely be moving on from 2018 first-rounder Sam Darnold. New head coach Robert Saleh has no attachment to Darnold and should look to play the best option moving forward.

Other teams know that Darnold's future in New York is uncertain.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, "multiple teams" have reached out to express interest in the USC product. Given Darnold's up-and-down start to his career—his passer rating of 78.6 leaves plenty to be desired—the Jets cannot expect high-end compensation.

However, New York could get something of value in return, as the Arizona Cardinals did when they dealt Josh Rosen to the Miami Dolphins for a second-round pick following his rookie season. 

Saleh's relationship with his former team, the San Francisco 49ers, could play a role. San Francisco had discussions with the Lions about acquiring Stafford, and they may be interested in moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason.

"I've watched him a lot whether it was college or last week's game… I'm a big fan of Sam's," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said last year, per Marc Delucchi of Niners Wire.

A trade involving the two quarterbacks could give both the Jets and the 49ers fresh starts in 2021.

Prediction: 49ers acquire Darnold for Garoppolo and a 2021 fifth-round pick.    

TE Zach Ertz

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

The Eagles have not officially placed tight end Zach Ertz on the trade market, but moving on from him seems logical. Dallas Goedert has taken over as the team's top receiving tight end, and the Eagles could save nearly $5 million in cap space by cutting or trading Ertz.

That extra space may be the biggest asset Philadelphia can gain in an Ertz deal.

"Remember, Ertz only has a year left on his deal, so trading a Day 2 pick for him would likely need to come with an extension, which somewhat hurts his value on the trade market," Mike Kaye of NJ Advance Media wrote.

Of course, if the Eagles cannot expect a lot in return, this makes Ertz an attractive trade target for other teams. While he had just 335 receiving yards across 11 games in 2020, he was a 900-yard receiver in 2019.

The Indianapolis Colts are one team that could use an established receiving tight end. Mo Alie-Cox led the squad at the position with just 394 yards this past season.

Indianapolis also needs a quarterback following the retirement of Philip Rivers. This is why a package deal involving both Ertz and quarterback Carson Wentz would make a ton of sense.

This would likely require the Colts to absorb some of the dead money on the contract of Wentz and/or Ertz. However, Indianapolis is projected to have $78.5 million in cap space and could afford to do that.

Prediction: Colts acquire Ertz and Wentz for a 2021 first-round pick and partial salary absorption.        

WR Julio Jones and QB Matt Ryan

Danny Karnik/Associated Press

The Atlanta Falcons generated some buzz in December when team president Rich McKay said that the incoming regime would have the freedom to trade wideout Julio Jones and/or quarterback Matt Ryan if it made sense.

"Give us a plan," McKay said, per Jeff Schultz and Tori McElhaney of The Athletic. "Show us what you want to do and show us why. Show us how this gets us to W's and make sure you actually execute the plan."

However, it would be tough for Atlanta to financially justify a potential deal for either player. Ryan has just under $50 million in dead money in 2021, while Jones has $38.5 million. According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, the two aren't expected to go anywhere this offseason.

Pelissero also pointed out that new head coach Arthur Smith runs a variation of the offense that helped Ryan and Jones reach the Super Bowl in 2016.

Both players are tremendous fits for the new regime. Expect them to spend at least another season in Atlanta.       

Prediction: Jones and Ryan both play for the Falcons in 2021.    

QB Deshaun Watson

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Deshaun Watson is just 25 years old and is already a three-time Pro Bowler. There's little reason for Houston to consider dealing the quarterback—except, of course, for the fact that Watson doesn't want to be there.

"He just wants out," a source close to him said, per Greg Bishop and Jenny Vrentas of SI.com

Watson appears to be trying to force a trade, and there's no shortage of teams that should be interested. We've already mentioned the Jets and the Raiders, but just about every squad that doesn't already employ an elite signal-caller should view Watson as a top trade target.

The problem is that the Texans are not obligated to even consider a deal and don't seem interested in hearing offers. Watson signed a contract extension last offseason and is under team control through the 2025 campaign. 

"The goal is to get him back, period," one source close to the Texans told Pelissero and NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.

There isn't a player who qualifies as a top trade target more than Watson, but there also may not be a player more difficult to land.

Now, whether Watson will choose to suit up for Houston in 2021 is a different matter.

Prediction: Watson remains on the Texans roster heading into training camp.    

Edge J.J. Watt

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

While the Texans may not move Watson this offseason, that doesn't mean that they won't make a notable trade. Houston is projected to be $6.6 million over the cap and could save $17.5 million by dumping the final year of J.J. Watt's contract.

While the veteran pass-rusher is a longtime face of the franchise, he is set to turn 32 in March and may be interested in finishing his career with a contender. Houston may be inclined to let him, per John P. Lopez of Sports Radio 610.

Presumably, the Texans would prefer to trade Watt not only outside of the division but also the AFC entirely. If Houston can get back into playoff contention, it won't want to face Watt in the postseason. It certainly won't want to face him twice a year in the AFC South.

Trading Watt to the other conference could prove difficult, though. Of the 10 teams projected to have the most cap space, only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Football Team are in the NFC—and both are stacked at pass-rusher.

Dealing Watt to the Los Angeles Chargers, though, would at least get him out of the division. Los Angeles is set to begin building around quarterback and Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert, and it could lose pass-rusher Melvin Ingram in free agency.

The Chargers are projected to have nearly $34 million in cap space and could afford to take on Watt's salary. Pairing him with Joey Bosa could help put Los Angeles back into contention in the AFC.

Prediction: Chargers acquire Watt for a 2021 third-round pick.         

QB Carson Wentz

Rich Schultz/Associated Press

According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter, the Eagles are close to moving quarterback Carson Wentz.

"The most pertinent questions now become where, when and for what. But it could happen as early as this week, per league sources, even as the Eagles continue to insist to other teams that they would be happy to bring Wentz back to Philadelphia," they wrote.

The Bears and Colts are reportedly two potential suitors.

As we've already discussed, Indianapolis has the cap space to accommodate Wentz's contract ($34.7 million cap hit in 2021) and to possibly take on some of the dead money. Trading for Wentz would also reunite him with head coach Frank Reich, who served as his offensive coordinator with the Eagles for two seasons.

Philadelphia could clear cap space while opening the door for 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts at quarterback, while Indianapolis would have its replacement for Rivers under center.

And playing for Reich again might be good for Wentz too.    

Prediction: Colts acquire Wentz and Ertz for a 2021 first-round pick and partial salary absorption.