Super Bowl Prop Bets 2021: Box Score Game Odds and Score Prediction

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistFebruary 6, 2021

En foto del 24 de enero del 2021, el quarterback Tom Brady de los Buccaneers de Tampa Bay reacciona tras la victoria ante los Packers de Green Bay en el partido por el campeonato de la Conferencia Nacional. Brady disputará su décimo Super Bowl. El jueves 28 de enero del 2021 Brady asegura que sus padres están bien tras padecer COVID-19 en septiembre y estarán en las gradas para el Super Bowl. (AP Foto/Matt Ludtke)
Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Sunday's Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers promises to be one of the most exciting games of the year. Fans couldn't have asked for a better quarterback matchup, as Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will face off for the second time this year.

However, fans looking to add even more excitement to the equation will have plenty of options. From the moneyline to the over/under, there are several ways to wager.

Prop bets can be a fun way to augment more traditional wagers, with fans having the chance to bet on anything from the color of halftime performer The Weeknd's jacket to Eric Church missing a word of the national anthem. When it comes to props directly related to the on-field action, though, those involving the game's box score can be equally entertaining.


Box Score Props

Moneyline, 1st Quarter

  • Kansas City -139
  • Tampa Bay +107

One reason why box-score props are fun is that they are not limited to a single play or event. They can keep fans engaged over several of them—and in this case, for the entire first quarter. The drama won't be settled until the quarter clock expires.

This is similar to how participants of Super Bowl squares pools remained engaged, though instead of rooting for a particular score, fans root for a specific team. The Chiefs are the favorite here, which is not surprising given Brady's history of slow starts in Super Bowls.

Brady has appeared in nine Super Bowls and has only three first-quarter points to show for it. He's not entirely sure why.

"Hard to explain why or why not that hasn't happened," Brady said, per Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk. "I'm sure they're all a lot of individual things, why that's happened or not."

While Brady may buck the trend this year, that doesn't mean that the Buccaneers will keep Kansas City contained.


Highest-Scoring Half

  • Second half -134
  • First half +106
  • Equal +2000

For this prop, the second half is getting a slight edge. Again, this could have something to do with Brady notoriously coming out of the gate slowly. If the Buccaneers do slog their way through the opening quarter and then pick it up, the second half being the higher-scoring portion of the game makes a ton of sense.

The long shot for this prop is picking both halves to feature the same amount of points. It's a hard feat to predict, but it's obviously not impossible.

Still, the second half feels like the safe bet here. As Brady and Mahomes get more comfortable with what the opposing defenses are showing them, the scoring should pick up.


Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards

  • Over 28.5 -121
  • Under 28.5 -103

Box-score props involve players too, and sometimes it's wise to seek out some of the lesser stars in the Super Bowl. Everyone knows that the Chiefs' most explosive weapon is wideout Tyreek Hill. Therefore, the Tampa Bay defense is likely to put a lot of effort into ensuring that he doesn't get behind the secondary.

How hard are the Buccaneers willing to go to limit Hill? It's difficult to say because Kansas City has plenty of other weapons. Clamping down on Hill could allow another weapon, like Hardman or Kelce, to go off.

While the over/unders for Hill (95.5) and Kelce (97.5) are high, the over/under for Hardman is not. This makes this particular prop attractive.

Hardman has enough speed to top 29 yards on a single play, which he did in the AFC title game with a 50-yard run. Unless Hardman somehow disappears from the game plan, the over feels like a solid bet here.


Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Score Prediction

The over/under for the full game is at 55.5 points. This seems relatively high, but considering the offensive firepower involved in the game—the Buccaneers boast their own weapons, like Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski—it's not that high.

Kansas City is favored by three points, and that feels fair, as they won in the regular season by the same margin. However, that was a 27-24 contest, and it feels likely that there will be a bit more scoring involved in this one.

The Chiefs got off to a hot start against Tampa Bay during the season and then hung on to come out on top. Brady and the Buccaneers got hot after that game and seem to have found their offensive rhythm.

Expect a bit more back and forth this time around. While we may not see a full-on shootout, we're not likely to see a defensive struggle, either.

Prediction: Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 28


Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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