Bleacher Report's Expert Super Bowl LV Picks and Predictions

After two long weeks, we've finally reached Super Bowl LV weekend.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first-ever true home team in Super Bowl history, while the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to become the league's first repeat champion in 16 years.

Most of the human interest stories have run, and the lion's share of the digital press conferences are over. Now, it's about time to pick a side and lock in bets for the over/under, the MVP and any of the hundreds of props on the table.

It's hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and just as difficult to be on the other side of a team led by Tom Brady, so we understand if you're agonizing over this one. We're also looking at one of the highest O/U totals in Super Bowl history, which is tricky since the under is less fun to back than the over.

Whether you want to mirror them or fade them, here's where Bleacher Report NFL correspondents Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski stand on one of the most highly anticipated championships in modern NFL history.

Lines, totals and props are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Feb. 4, at 5 p.m. ET. 

The Details

Brett Duke/Associated Press

Date/time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

Fans in attendance: 25,000

Early line: Kansas City -3

Early total: 55.5

Referee: Carl Cheffers

Chiefs injuries to watch: Kansas City will be without stalwart left tackle Eric Fisher, who suffered an Achilles injury in the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, standout right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) is highly unlikely to return from a long stretch on the sideline. On the bright side, running back Le'Veon Bell (knee) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (calf) should be in line to play after practicing this week in limited fashion, rising cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has been cleared from the concussion protocol, and Mahomes says his injured toe is close to 100 percent.

Buccaneers injuries to watch: Star linebacker Lavonte David (hamstring), starting safeties Jordan Whitehead (shoulder/knee) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle), and Jason Pierre-Paul (knee) were limited in Thursday's practice. All of them should play, but nothing is guaranteed after both safeties weren't game-ready coming out of the NFC Championship Game. Veteran wide receiver Antonio Brown (knee) was also unavailable in that game but is practicing fully now.

The ATS Pick

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Davenport: Kansas City -3

This has the makings of a great game, and it wouldn't be a huge upset if Brady and the Buccaneers pull out the win. But I keep going back to Tyreek Hill roasting the Buccaneers for 269 yards and three scores on 13 catches back in Week 12. The secondary is Tampa's defensive weak spot, which Mahomes is more than capable of exploiting. A new dynasty will be born Sunday, with the Chiefs becoming the first team since Brady's Pats in 2003 and 2004 to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

Gagnon: Tampa Bay +3

The Chiefs made do without Super Bowl LIV starting guard and COVID-19 opt-out Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, and they've survived without Schwartz, but the offense hasn't been as effective. Now take away Fisher as well and throw them to wolves who notched five sacks on the road in the NFC title game? That's a recipe for disaster. The Bucs are deeper and healthier and should win in the trenches on both sides of the ball at home to capture their second Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

Sobleski: Kansas City -3

No one should expect the Chiefs offense to run roughshod over the Buccaneers like they did in the first half of their regular-season meeting in Week 12. At the same time, the matchup possibilities against an aggressive Bucs defense will create opportunities for big plays, especially after Andy Reid had two weeks to devise a game plan. It's hard to envision Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles becoming passive in his play-calling, and Reid will almost certainly take advantage.

Consensus ATS pick: Kansas City -3

Consensus score prediction: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 27

The O/U Pick

Kyle Zedaker/Associated Press

Davenport: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 26 (over)

Are there people who still bet the under? Where's the fun in that? You spend the whole game rooting for teams not to score. These two teams finished with only 51 points in their first meeting, but this go-round between two of the best quarterbacks of the 21st century is more likely to break 60 than land in the low 50s again. Plus, a "Super Shootout" will just be more fun to watch.

Gagnon: Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 27 (under)

I think Reid will try to compensate for the Chiefs' offensive line issues with a lot of short, quick passes, which could result in longer drives and fewer points. The Bucs will also likely use their strong running game against a vulnerable Kansas City run defense. Throw in the chance of rain in the forecast, and I'm willing to hit the under on a total that keeps dropping. 

Sobleski: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 27 (over)

Taking the over in this instance may be playing with fire, but it's hard to bet against a shootout considering Kansas City's offensive approach and Tampa Bay's improved offensive output in recent weeks. After the Buccaneers' bye, Bruce Arians' squad averaged 34.3 points per game (including the postseason). Everyone expects Mahomes to do what he does, but Brady's crew has played well down the stretch, too.

Consensus O/U pick: Over

The MVP Prediction

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Davenport: Mahomes

Of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs, seven have been quarterbacks—because quarterbacks hog all the glory. Mahomes (LIV) and Brady (XLIX, LI) accounted for three of those awards. Back in Week 12, Mahomes torched the Bucs for 462 yards, three scores and a passer rating of 124.7. If the Chiefs win and Mahomes comes anywhere close to those numbers, he'll be the first repeat MVP since Terry Bradshaw in Super Bowls XIII and XIV.

Gagnon: Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette

At one point, this paid well over +3000! It's admittedly a hunch and a gamble because a running back hasn't won Super Bowl MVP in this century, but Fournette has put up 313 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in three postseason games and the Chiefs have the league's second-worst run defense in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders. 

Sobleski: Mahomes

While this may be bordering on oversimplification, the game will be won or lost based on how Kansas City's ramshackle offensive front protects Mahomes against the likes of Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. Breakdowns in protection are inevitable. As such, Mahomes' escapability and creativity working outside of structure should play a bigger role than usual. For Kansas City to win, he'll need to make standout throws in adverse situations. In doing so, he'll emerge as the player of the game and win his second straight Super Bowl MVP.

Consensus MVP pick: Mahomes

Best Defensive Performance

Daniel Kucin Jr./Associated Press

Davenport: Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu

For as well as Brady played in 2020, he wasn't averse to throwing the ball to the other team. His 12 interceptions were the most he's thrown since 2011, and he tossed three picks in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay. Mathieu has built a career on making big plays in big games, and the Honey Badger will snag a big second-half interception that turns the tide for the Chiefs.

Gagnon: Buccaneers LB Shaquil Barrett 

If the Bucs win this game, it'll be because they take full advantage of the Fisher and Schwartz injuries and routinely pressure, hit and sack Mahomes. Barrett is their best pass-rusher and is coming off a three-sack performance at Lambeau Field, while fellow edge-defender Jason Pierre-Paul is a bit hobbled with a knee injury. It could be either one of them, though. 

Sobleski: Barrett

Four of Kansas City's projected five starting offensive linemen this season are either A) on injured reserve (Schwartz, Fisher and Kelechi Osemele) or B) on the COVID-19 opt-out list (Duvernay-Tardif). The Chiefs juggled their front five all season, but the overall decline in talent will play a factor one way or another. It's easy to project a top sack artist like Barrett causing trouble throughout the contest by harassing Mahomes.

Consensus best defensive performance: Barrett

Top Prop Recommendation

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Davenport: Tyreek Hill over 7.5 receptions (+110)

Did I mention that Hill posted a ridiculous 13/269/3 stat line against the Buccaneers in Week 12? I feel like I mentioned that. Hill has eclipsed 7.5 receptions in a game five times this season, including both postseason wins. He also had nine catches for 105 yards in Super Bowl LIV. Let's go with 10 receptions for 152 yards and a long score in the first half just before a deeply disturbing Mountain Dew commercial. I don't give any of that a second thought.

Gagnon: Buccaneers over 6.5 first-quarter points (+102)

Brady-quarterbacked teams have famously scored only three total points in nine Super Bowl first quarters. The law of averages has to be on his and the Bucs' side, and they need only one touchdown to clear this hurdle. In a new Super Bowl environment with an offense that's been on fire against a so-so defense, he finally leads a first-quarter touchdown drive in a Super Bowl to give prop bettors a nice payout. 

Sobleski: Rob Gronkowski over 2.5 receptions (-112)

Call this one a hunch because of the history between Brady and his all-time favorite target. It isn't hard to envision the Buccaneers quarterback targeting his security blanket when things get difficult, as both have been in that situation and know what it takes to win a championship. As such, Gronk should have three or more catches in his latest Super Bowl appearance.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN/MI only. Odds and lines subject to change. Eligibility restrictions apply. See DraftKings.com/Sportsbook for full terms and conditions.