B/R's 2021 MLB Skill Rankings: DJ LeMahieu and Baseball's Top 25 Contact Hitters

The task is simple: Name the 25 best contact hitters in baseball.

However, rather than simply looking at batting average, I decided to take a more analytical approach to compile my list.

The first step was to decide which statistics best quantify contact ability.

After some digging and debating, I landed on these four metrics:

• Strikeout Rate (K%): What percent of a player's plate appearances end in a strikeout.
• Contact Rate (Contact%): The percent of swings that result in contact.
• Hard-Hit Rate: How frequently a ball in play travels 90 mph or more off the bat. This was included to reward quality of contact, which is an important component of contact ability.
• Hit/Swing Percentage: The percentage of a player's swings that result in a base hit. This is a homemade stat courtesy of Baseball Savant and a suggestion from fellow B/R writer Zachary Rymer.

The question was how to use those statistics to best demonstrate the difference between Player A and Player B in terms of contact ability.

On the following slide, I've outlined my methodology and scoring system, and I encourage you to give that a read before diving into the article.

Methodology

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

To narrow the list of candidates for inclusion, I started by trimming the field to only players who met the following benchmarks since the start of the 2019 season:

• 100-plus plate appearances
• 25 percent or lower strikeout rate (K%)
• 15 percent or lower swinging strike rate (SwStr%)
• 75 percent or higher swinging contact rate (Contact%)
• 22 percent or lower soft-contact rate (Soft%)
• 20 percent or higher hard-contact rate (Hard%)
• 100 or higher adjusted batting average (AVG+)
• 5 percent or higher hit-per-swing rate (Hit/Swing%)

The result was a list of 136 players up for consideration.

From there, a point system was implemented that awarded points as follows:

• 1 point for every 0.1 percent below the 25 percent benchmark in K%
• 1 point for every 0.1 percent above the 75 percent benchmark in Contact%
• ½ point for every 0.1 percent above the 20 percent benchmark in Hard%
• 1 point for every 0.1 percent above the 5 percent benchmark in Hit/Swing%
• In case of a tie for total points, the tiebreaker went to the player with a lower K%

No bias. No preconceived notions. Just a set of statistical parameters and a straightforward point system to determine the 25 best current contact hitters in baseball.

The full data can be found here.

Honorable Mentions

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Charlie Blackmon

These 25 players fulfilled the criteria and finished in the No. 26-50 spots in the rankings. They are listed alphabetically:

• Jose Altuve, HOU
• Elvis Andrus, TEX
• Matt Beaty, LAD
• Cody Bellinger, LAD
• Charlie Blackmon, COL
• Robinson Cano, NYM
• Starlin Castro, WAS
• Jake Cronenworth, SD
• Adam Eaton, CWS
• Adam Frazier, PIT
• Freddie Freeman, ATL
• Whit Merrifield, KC
• Yadier Molina, STL
• Kevin Pillar, FA
• Jorge Polanco, MIN
• Buster Posey, SF
• Josh Reddick, FA
• Anthony Rizzo, CHC
• Eddie Rosario, CLE
• Carlos Santana, KC
• Jean Segura, PHI
• Marcus Semien, TOR
• Kurt Suzuki, LAA
• Giovanny Urshela, NYY
• Kolten Wong, MIL

Nos. 25-21

Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

Jeff McNeil

25. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (295 points)

Metrics: 15.1 K%, 83.7 Contact%, 38.8 HardHit%, 6.5 Hit/Swing%

Despite hitting a career-low .258 this past season, Lindor still grades out as an elite contact hitter in our scoring system. There are very few players in the game today with 30-homer power and a strikeout rate of just 15 percent, which speaks to his well-rounded abilities.

24. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets (299 points)

Metrics: 12.8 K%, 82.1 Contact%, 36.0 HardHit%, 7.6 Hit/Swing%

Never viewed as a top prospect during his time in the minors, McNeil has come out of nowhere to hit .316 with surprising power the past two seasons. His 82.1 percent contact rate is the second-lowest among players inside the top 25, which explains why he doesn't rank higher.

23. Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (305.5 points)

Metrics: 13.1 K%, 81.1 Contact%, 40.5 HardHit%, 7.3 Hit/Swing%

Arenado slugged 41 home runs during the 2019 season and he did it with a 14.0 percent strikeout rate, making him something of a power-contact unicorn in today's strikeout-driven game. He has a lot to prove now that he won't be playing half his games in Coors Field, but he's more than capable of remaining one of the game's elite offensive players thanks to his strong foundation of contact skills.

22. Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox (306 points)

Metrics: 15.7 K%, 84.6 Contact%, 39.8 HardHit%, 6.8 Hit/Swing%

The prize of the Mookie Betts blockbuster, Verdugo hit .308 and finished 12th in AL MVP voting in his first year in Boston. The 24-year-old has long been lauded for his advanced hit tool, and his smooth left-handed swing could have him contending for the AL batting title for years to come.

21. Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh Pirates (310.5 points)

Metrics: 11.8 K%, 86.9 Contact%, 27.1 HardHit%, 7.4 Hit/Swing%

Newman burst onto the scene to hit .308/.353/.446 with 38 extra-base hits in 130 games as a rookie in 2019. His numbers dipped across the board last season and he lost his grip on the starting shortstop job as a result, but his presence on this list shows he still has the potential to be a long-term piece in Pittsburgh.

Nos. 20-16

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Miguel Rojas

20. Jose Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels (312 points)

Metrics: 12.8 K%, 86.0 Contact%, 30.2 HardHit%, 7.9 Hit/Swing%

Iglesias hit .373 with 20 extra-base hits in 150 plate appearances for the Baltimore Orioles last year, and he was traded to the Los Angeles Angels during the offseason to replace the departed Andrelton Simmons at shortstop. He's not going to maintain a .407 BABIP over a full season, but he has long been one of the game's better contact hitters.

19. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland (314 points)

Metrics: 14.7 K%, 86.4 Contact%, 38.2 HardHit%, 5.6 Hit/Swing%

There are very few players in the game today capable of catching fire at the plate the way that Ramirez has at various times over the last few seasons. His 5.6 percent hit/swing rate is the second-lowest of anyone ranked in the top 25, and that's part of the course with power hitters, but he more than makes up for it with his other metrics.

18. Hanser Alberto, Kansas City Royals (316 points)

Metrics: 10.2 K%, 86.2 Contact%, 23.6 HardHit%, 8.8 Hit/Swing%

It was a bit shocking that Alberto had to settle for a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals this winter after hitting .299/.322/.413 with the Orioles the past two seasons. He's a bit exposed as an everyday player, but he absolutely wears out left-handed pitching to the tune of a .350 average and .831 OPS in 350 career plate appearances over the course of his career.

17. Miguel Rojas, Miami Marlins (323 points)

Metrics: 12.0 K%, 84.6 Contact%, 34.8 HardHit%, 7.3 Hit/Swing%

A productive stopgap player while the Marlins continue to rebuild, Rojas was signed to a two-year, $10.25 million extension that includes a 2022 club option down the stretch in 2019. He had a career year at the plate in 2020 with a .304/.392/.496 line in 143 plate appearances.

16. Eric Sogard, Free Agent (325.5 points)

Metrics: 14.6 K%, 90.1 Contact%, 31.7 HardHit%, 6.2 Hit/Swing%

Is this the end for the 34-year-old Sogard? After posting the best offensive numbers of his career in 2019, he hit just .209/.281/.278 in 128 trips to the plate with the Milwaukee Brewers last year before his club option was declined. He's turned terrific contact skills and defensive versatility into a 10-year career.

Nos. 15-11

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Mookie Betts

15. Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants (339 points)

Metrics: 13.5 K%, 87.3 Contact%, 36.4 HardHit%, 6.9 Hit/Swing%

With an OPS that's 110 points higher against left-handed pitching, Flores probably fits best as a platoon player, but he put up solid numbers in 55 games of action splitting his time between first base, second base and designated hitter for the Giants last year. He has better pop than most of the guys on this list.

14. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (340.5 points)

Metrics: 13.0 K%, 84.5 Contact%, 39.7 HardHit%, 7.7 Hit/Swing%

It remains to be seen if the 32-homer season that Marte authored in 2019 was a fluke, especially considering he went deep just twice in 195 plate appearances during the 2020 season. That said, he's a good enough all-around hitter to still make an impact offensively for the D-backs even if he's not slugging home runs.

13. Justin Turner, Free Agent (344 points)

Metrics: 15.7 K%, 83.6 Contact%, 50.0 HardHit%, 6.5 Hit/Swing%

Turner leads all qualified hitters with a 50 percent hard-hit rate since the start of the 2019 season, and that's a big reason why he's looking for another long-term deal despite turning 36 years old in November. He may have lost a step defensively, but he can still flat-out hit and he's always been more contact-oriented than the average corner infielder.

12. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (353 points)

Metrics: 14.6 K%, 86.9 Contact%, 43.4 HardHit%, 6.3 Hit/Swing%

What can't Mookie Betts do? While Mike Trout remains the best player on the planet, his 20.9 percent strikeout rate, 82.3 percent contact rate and 5.5 percent hit/swing rate left him at No. 62 in these rankings. So if we're comparing Betts and Trout head-to-head in the best player in baseball conversation, Betts takes the contact hitting round easily.

11. Nick Markakis, Free Agent (359 points)

Metrics: 13.4 K%, 89.0 Contact%, 38.2 HardHit%, 8.2 Hit/Swing%

Markakis ranks fourth among active players with 2,388 hits, and he has long been one of the best examples of how a corner outfielder can succeed with a hit-over-power profile. The 37-year-old has never hit more than 23 home runs in a season, but he's a career .288/.357/.423 hitter and he's banked roughly $120 million thanks to his elite contact ability.

10. Andrelton Simmons, Minnesota Twins (359 Points)

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Metrics: 9.6 K%, 86.5 Contact%, 32.8 HardHit%, 7.6 Hit/Swing%

Andrelton Simmons is best known for his all-world defense at shortstop, but he also developed into one of the toughest players in baseball to strike out during his time with the Los Angeles Angels.

With a walk rate of just 5.8 percent alongside his stellar 9.8 percent strikeout rate the past two seasons, he puts the ball in play as frequently as any player in the game today.

The one-year, $10.5 million contract he signed with the Minnesota Twins last month has a chance to be one of the best bargains of the offseason.

9. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (365 Points)

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Alex Bregman

Metrics: 12.5 K%, 86.9 Contact%, 43.2 HardHit%, 5.5 Hit/Swing%

The hard-hit rate bonus helps boost Alex Bregman into the top 10 of these rankings, but it's his extremely disciplined approach and short, quick swing that make him one of baseball's best contact hitters.

It helps that he doesn't swing at bad pitches. His 16.4 percent walk rate that trailed only Juan Soto (17.4%), Mike Trout (17.2%) and Carlos Santana (16.5%) among the 136 players that qualified for inclusion in these rankings.

He has a lower strikeout rate, higher contact rate and better hard-hit rate than all three of those guys, which is why he checks in at No. 9 and they are nowhere to be found in the top 25.

8. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (366 Points)

Mary Altaffer/Associated Press

Metrics: 12.7 K%, 86.6 Contact%, 39.2 HardHit%, 8.1 Hit/Swing%

In terms of results, few compare to DJ LeMahieu who has a .336 average the past two seasons and just became the first player in MLB history to win a batting title in both leagues.

However, his 12.7 percent strikeout rate is a tad high compared to the other truly elite contact hitters on this list, and part of that stems from him being asked to fill a run-production role in the New York Yankees lineup.

Few players handle the bat better, and based on surface-level stats he would probably be most people's choice for the No. 1 spot on this list.

A handful of others grade out just a bit better in this exercise, though.

7. Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros (369.5 Points)

Matt York/Associated Press

Metrics: 10.9 K%, 86.3 Contact%, 37.9 HardHit%, 7.6 Hit/Swing%

Easily the biggest surprise among players ranked in the top 10, Yuli Gurriel has been surprisingly difficult to strike out for a power-hitting first baseman.

The 36-year-old played 15 professional seasons in Cuba and Japan before joining the Houston Astros, and the more contact-oriented international game no doubt helped mold him into a hitter who has broken the mold a bit.

His focus on making contact didn't stop him from slugging 31 home runs during the 2019 season, and the Astros quietly signed him to a one-year, $7 million extension in September that includes a 2022 club option. He should age better than most at his position.

6. David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels (379 Points)

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

Metrics: 10.1 K%, 91.3 Contact%, 29.8 HardHit%, 6.8 Hit/Swing%

David Fletcher is who I expected to claim the No. 1 spot at the start of this project.

The inclusion of a hard-hit rate bonus is ultimately what kept him from climbing any higher in these rankings, but with a contact rate north of 90 percent and an elite strikeout rate there was no way he was going to slip out of the top 10.

He hit a career-high .319 in 2020 on the strength of a .348 BABIP that was well above his career average, so it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his 2020 gains given the middling quality of contact and run of good luck his numbers seem to suggest.

5. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels (383 Points)

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Metrics: 13.3 K%, 87.9 Contact%, 44.4 HardHit%, 6.5 Hit/Swing%

Hot take: Anthony Rendon might be the most complete hitter in baseball.

He sprays the ball to all fields with three 40-double seasons and a career-high 34 home runs in 2019 when he helped lead the Washington Nationals to the World Series. He also posts elite on-base numbers with an OBP north of .400 each of the past two seasons, and here he grades out as one of baseball's best contact hitters.

This is why he was worth $245 million in free agency last winter.

4. Nick Madrigal, Chicago White Sox (397 Points)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Metrics: 6.4 K%, 92.4 Contact%, 20.8 HardHit%, 8.3 Hit/Swing%

It speaks to just how elite his three metrics are that Nick Madrigal had the lowest hard-hit rate among the 136 players analyzed in this project and he still ended up in the No. 4 spot in the rankings.

A 92.4 percent contact rate for a player seeing MLB pitching for the first time is absurd.

The 23-year-old may never hit for power, but the .340 average he posted in 109 plate appearances after making his MLB debut on July 31 could be the norm for the next decades given his top-of-the-scale hit tool and excellent approach at the plate.

In 1,722 plate appearances spanning three years of college ball at Oregon State, two seasons in the minors, and his 2020 big league debut, he struck out 72 times.

3. Michael Brantley, Houston Astros (414.5 Points)

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Metrics: 11.4 K%, 89.8 Contact%, 40.9 HardHit%, 7.6 Hit/Swing%

Since becoming an everyday player in 2012, Michael Brantley is a .304/.362/.458 hitter, with four All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger Award to his credit during that span.

The 33-year-old is a capable run producer, evidenced by his 22-homer, 90-RBI season in 2019, but his calling card is a smooth lefty swing that has made him one of the best pure hitters in baseball for the better part of a decade.

He was the only player analyzed with a strikeout rate below 12 percent and a hard-hit rate above 40 percent, which shows what a unique hitter he is and why he was well worth the two-year, $32 million contract it cost the Houston Astros to re-sign him this offseason.

2. Tommy La Stella, San Francisco Giants (430.5 Points)

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Metrics: 7.3 K%, 90.0 Contact%, 37.5 HardHit%, 6.6 Hit/Swing%

A pinch-hit extraordinaire during his time with the Chicago Cubs, Tommy La Stella has made the most of expanded opportunities the past two seasons with the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics.

An All-Star in 2019 when he hit .300/.353/.495 during the first half of the season, he played in just two games after the All-Star break because of injury.

The 32-year-old proved that performance was for real with a .281/.370/.449 line in 55 games this past season, drawing 27 walks against just 12 strikeouts in 228 plate appearances. That was enough to earn him a three-year, $18.75 million contract with the San Francisco Giants as he'll serve as a table-setter for a lineup on the rise.      

1. Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins (435.5 Points)

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Metrics: 8.2 K%, 92.9 Contact%, 33.1 HardHit%, 7.3 Hit/Swing%

Luis Arraez has stepped into the batter's box 487 times in his MLB career and faced 1,998 total pitches.

He has only swung and missed 72 times.

The 23-year-old is a .331/.390/.429 career hitter in his brief time in the big leagues, and while the Minnesota Twins' addition of Andrelton Simmons during the offseason will likely push him into more of a super-utility role, he has earned regular playing time one way or another.

There's simply not a better contact hitter in the game today.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.