Super Bowl Odds 2021: Prop Picks, Spread Projections for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Super Bowl LV is set to take place February 7, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs will face off for NFL supremacy.

The Buccaneers and Chiefs took contrasting paths to reach this point. Kansas City relied on superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes and raced to a 14-2 regular-season record.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, added aging signal-caller Tom Brady during the offseason and experienced their fair share of ups and downs early on. At one point, Tampa was 7-5 and on the edge of the playoff bubble. However, a late-season surge earned them the No. 5 seed (at 11-5), and they have continued winning to the point they will play in the season's final game.

While Kansas City finished with a much better record—and enjoyed a first-round bye in the playoffs—this is a relatively even matchup that could easily go either way. One strong individual performance could swing the Super Bowl, and we're going to examine a few potential performances here.

We'll run down the latest odds and over/under from DraftKings Sportsbook, along with some top props and predictions for Super Bowl LV.

Super Bowl LV

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

When: February 7, 2021

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access

Line and Over/Under: KC -3, 56.5

Moneyline: KC -167, TB +145

Prediction: Kansas City 31, Tampa Bay 28

Jason Behnken/Associated Press

Chiefs OVER 1.5 1st-Half Touchdowns

The Chiefs got off to a slow start against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game and in every postseason game last season. However, it feels unlikely that they will score fewer than two touchdowns in the opening half.

Despite being down 9-0 against Buffalo, Kansas City stormed back to take a 21-12 halftime lead. A similar situation could play out against Tampa, with the Chiefs falling behind and then climbing back before the break.

Will the Chiefs put up 21 in two quarters? Perhaps not. The Buccaneers boast the league's top run defense and an aggressive pass rush that could derail Kansas City early. However, the Bucs don't have a true shutdown defense, and they ranked just 21st against the pass in the regular season.

Expect Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs passing attack to make enough ground in the opening half to reach the end zone twice. Whether that's enough to put Kansas City ahead on the scoreboard at the break is irrelevant for this prop.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 40.5 Pass Attempts

As noted, the Buccaneers defense ranked first against the run during the regular season—both in terms of yards allowed and yards per attempt allowed (3.6). Therefore, the Chiefs should look to lean on Mahomes and the passing game here.

Yes, Kansas City is expected to be without both starting tackles—Eric Fisher suffered a torn Achilles in the AFC title game, while Mitchell Schwartz has been out since Week 6—but Mahomes is capable of buying time in the pocket.

"Just when you think you might have him, he might step two steps back and then throw off his back foot," New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh said, per Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk. "I mean, he has ridiculous arm talent. He's got tremendous accuracy. He's got tremendous mobility."

While Mahomes hasn't topped 40 passes this postseason, he did so nine times during the regular season. He also threw 30 passes against the Cleveland Browns before exiting in the third quarter. Expect him to throw at least 41 times against the Bucs.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 Interceptions

With Mahomes likely to carry the offense, there's a good chance that he tosses at least one interception. He only threw six all year, including the playoffs, but he did throw three against the Miami Dolphins.

What the Dolphins and the Buccaneers have in common is an ability to generate pressure with their front four. This should allow Tampa to pressure Mahomes while keeping seven players in position to cover pass-catchers.

Just as importantly, the Buccaneers defense became proficient at producing turnovers down the stretch. The defense logged 15 interceptions during the regular season and forced 11 turnovers in its past 11 games.

Seven of those turnovers came in the postseason.

While Mahomes interceptions are rare, the Buccaneers should be able to pressure him into throwing one in the Super Bowl.

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