B/R's 2021 Skill Rankings: Gerrit Cole and MLB's Top 25 Fastballs
The task is simple: Name the 25 best fastballs in baseball.
However, rather than simply looking at who throws the hardest, I decided to take a more analytical approach to compile my list.
First things first: The focal point here will be on traditional four-seam fastballs. Not cutters, not sinkers, not two-seam fastballs. Just four-seam fastballs.
Once that was established, the next step was to decide which advanced metrics best quantify fastball effectiveness.
After some digging and debating, I landed on these two metrics:
- Isolated Power Against (ISO): Opposing hitters' extra bases per at-bat against fastballs. Calculated by taking slugging percentage allowed minus batting average allowed.
- Whiff Rate (Whiff%): How often a player swings and misses when swinging at a fastball.
The question was how to use those statistics to best demonstrate the difference between Player A and Player B in terms of fastball effectiveness.
On the following slide, I've outlined my methodology and scoring system, and I encourage you to give that a read before diving into the article.
Methodology
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To narrow the list of candidates for inclusion, I started by trimming the field to only players who met the following benchmarks since the start of the 2019 season:
- 60-plus innings pitched to remove small sample-size data skew
- A usage rate above 30 percent to remove small sample-size data skew
- A positive value for four-seam fastball according to the Pitch Value metric at FanGraphs
- A 3.5-plus value or higher on four-seam fastball Pitch Value per 100 pitches
The result was a list of 85 pitchers.
From there, a simple point system was implemented that awarded points as follows:
- 1 point for every .001 below .200 in ISO, -1 point for every .001 above .200 in ISO
- 2 points for every .01% in Whiff%
One other important scoring note: To account for the fact that starting pitchers have to face opposing hitters multiple times and are therefore more exposed, starters had a 1.2X multiplier applied to their point total, while players who split time between starting and relieving were awarded a 1.1X multiplier.
No bias. No preconceived notions. Just a set of statistical parameters and a straightforward point system to determine the 25 best fastballs in baseball.
The full data can be found here.
Now, let's kick things off with some honorable mentions and important clarifications.
Actually, That's a Sinker...
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The following players may seem like obvious choices for this list based on the effectiveness of their fastballs, but what they throw are, in fact, sinkers and not four-seam fastballs:
- Sandy Alcantara, MIA
- Chris Bassitt, OAK
- Zack Britton, NYY
- Aaron Bummer, CWS
- Marco Gonzales, SEA
- Brusdar Graterol, LAD
- Jordan Hicks, STL
- Brandon Kintzler, FA
- Adam Kolarek, LAD
- Dustin May, LAD
- Brady Singer, KC
- Craig Stammen, SD
Honorable Mentions
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These were the next 10 best fastballs according to our parameters and scoring system:
- Eduardo Rodriguez (338.4 points)
- Pablo Lopez (336 points)
- Brad Brach (331 points)
- Tyler Webb (327 points)
- Cam Bedrosian (324 points)
- Zac Gallen (319.2 points)
- Jack Flaherty (318 points)
- Hansel Robles (316 points)
- Blake Snell (314.4 points)
- Chad Green (311 points)
Nos. 25-21
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25. Mike Clevinger, San Diego Padres (339.6 points)
Metrics: 48.4 Usage%, 95.4 mph, .201 BAA, .183 ISO, 13.3 Whiff%
An extremely effective slider is the key to Clevinger's fastball effectiveness. He tunnels the two pitches well and does a good job of keeping hitters off balance. That has helped him rack up 106 of his 209 strikeouts the past two seasons by way of the fastball.
24. Daniel Ponce de Leon, St. Louis Cardinals (342.1 points)
Metrics: 66.6 Usage%, 93.2 mph, .195 BAA, .215 ISO, 16.3 Whiff%
Fans outside of St. Louis may remember Ponce de Leon as the pitcher who tossed seven no-hit innings in his MLB debut in 2018. The 29-year-old has yet to carve out a full-time role in the starting rotation, but he's been effective when called upon, posting a 4.20 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 81.1 innings the past two years thanks in large part to his oft-used fastball.
23. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers (343.2 points)
Metrics: 53.5 Usage%, 96.6 mph, .194 BAA, .142 ISO, 11.4 Whiff%
With a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball and sinker, Buehler might have the most diverse repertoire in baseball outside of Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke. He doesn't generate a ton of swings and misses with his fastball, but his sub-.200 BAA on a pitch he throws more than 50 percent of the time speaks to its effectiveness.
22. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (348 points)
Metrics: 47.7 Usage%, 94.8 mph, .231 BAA, .200 ISO, 14.5 Whiff%
Scherzer throws his fastball less and his slider more compared to earlier in his career, but fastball command is still the key to his success. A bulldog mentality and his willingness to challenge hitters can burn him sometimes—he's allowed 17 home runs with his fastball since the start of 2019—but he has also piled up 134 strikeouts with the pitch.
21. Emilio Pagan, San Diego Padres (350 points)
Metrics: 61.7 Usage%, 95.2 mph, .188 BAA, .228 ISO, 18.9 Whiff%
A true two-pitch pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, Pagan has tallied 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings with a 2.84 ERA and 22 saves the past two seasons. He has surrendered 12 home runs with his fastball in 92 innings, hence the relatively high ISO, but an elite whiff rate helps make up for it in these rankings.
Nos. 20-16
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20. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees (357 points)
Metrics: 61.0 Usage%, 98.0 mph, .212 BAA, .097 ISO, 12.7 Whiff%
"I stopped reading when I saw Chapman at 20!" — Every Yankees fan.
In truth, Chapman's fastball is not the dominant strikeout pitch it was in his prime, when his whiff rate hovered around 20 percent. He still throws gas, and he's allowed just eight extra-base hits and one home run with his fastball the last two years. It's just no longer his go-to strikeout pitch.
18 (tie). Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies (368 points)
Metrics: 30.2 Usage%, 94.2 mph, .206 BAA, .118 ISO, 14.3 Whiff%
There are a few pitchers on this list who can attribute the success of their fastball to the effectiveness of another pitch, and Neris is one of them. The 31-year-old has one of the best splitters in baseball, and he throws that pitch roughly 60 percent of the time. Hitters lock in on that slower splitter that sits in the mid-80s and then struggle to catch up to his mid-90s fastball.
18 (tie). Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays (368 points)
Metrics: 60.8 Usage%, 95.9 mph, .238 BAA, .188 ISO, 17.8 Whiff%
The curveball-slider hybrid that Anderson throws is one of the best breaking balls in baseball, and his fastball is not far behind. Those two pitches have aided his rapid ascent from late-blooming prospect to elite late-inning reliever. In two MLB seasons, he has struck out 42.2 percent of the batters he's faced, and more than half of those have come with his fastball.
17. Brandon Workman, Free Agent (379 points)
Metrics: 31.9 Usage%, 92.8 mph, .151 BAA, .081 ISO, 13.0 Whiff%
Workman is propped up in these rankings by a brilliant 2019 season in which he posted a .134 BAA and a minuscule .015 ISO with his fastball while posting a 1.88 ERA and 13.1 K/9. He wasn't nearly as effective during the shortened 2020 season and is now one of the remaining free-agent market's biggest wild cards.
16. Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers (380.4 points)
Metrics: 44.9 Usage%, 93.7 mph, .241 BAA, .119 ISO, 11.8 Whiff%
Despite a relatively high BAA and one of the lowest whiff rates of any pitcher on this list, Turnbull checks in at No. 16 on the strength of his ability to limit extra-base damage. In 205 innings the past two seasons, he has allowed just 25 extra-base hits with his fastball, with only six of those leaving the yard.
Nos. 15-11
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15. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox (382.8 points)
Metrics: 53.7 Usage%, 94.2 mph, .199 BAA, .141 ISO, 13.0 Whiff%
Giolito has three plus pitches with a mid-90s fastball, an elite changeup and a tight slider, and an uptick in his fastball usage can be directly tied to his rise to stardom. He threw his fastball 39.5 percent of the time in 2018 when he posted the worst ERA among qualified starters, and he upped that to 55 percent usage during his 2019 breakout.
14. Pedro Baez, Houston Astros (391 points)
Metrics: 48.7 Usage%, 95.5 mph, .186 BAA, .143 ISO, 16.7 Whiff%
After seven seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers serving in a setup role ahead of Kenley Jansen, Baez signed a two-year, $12.5 million contract with the Houston Astros in free agency. His best pitch is his changeup, but its effectiveness is directly tied to his ability to throw his fastball for strikes.
13. Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (391.2 points)
Metrics: 52.9 Usage%, 94.4 mph, .211 BAA, .188 ISO, 15.7 Whiff%
Between his mid-90s four-seamer and his low-90s cutter, no qualified starter threw fastballs more frequently than the 67.8 percent rate Lynn did for the Texas Rangers in 2020. Increased fastball usage has been the key to his late-career success, and he'll now be a veteran presence for a contending Chicago White Sox team after an offseason trade.
12. Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins (394 points)
Metrics: 48.9 Usage%, 93.6 mph, .187 BAA, .140 ISO, 16.7 Whiff%
Duffey is a curveball specialist who throws his breaking ball nearly 50 percent of the time, so it's a bit surprising to see his fastball rank so high. That said, there's no ignoring the numbers, which include the seventh-best whiff rate among pitchers on this list and a BAA and ISO both below .200. When you're sitting on an 82.7 mph curveball, a 93.6 mph fastball tends to take you by surprise.
11. Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers (397 points)
Metrics: 79.2 Usage%, 95.3 mph, .170 BAA, .255 ISO, 22.6 Whiff%
Hader throws his heater a ton, and it's a good one. But when he gets burned, it's almost always with a fastball that catches too much of the zone. While he has struck out 125 batters with his fastball in 94.2 innings the last two seasons, the pitch has also been the culprit on 17 of the 18 home runs he's surrendered. The resulting .255 ISO is enough to keep him out of the top 10.
10. Jacob DeGrom, New York Mets (398.4 Points)
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Metrics: 47.3 Usage%, 97.3 mph, .210 BAA, .166 ISO, 14.9 Whiff%
Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball, and his upper-90s fastball that averaged an absurd 99 mph during the shortened 2020 campaign is a big reason for his success.
That said, his fastball is arguably his third-best pitch behind a virtually unhittable slider that sits in the low 90s and a ridiculous changeup that averages nearly eight inches of horizontal movement.
His slider is his best strikeout pitch, and his changeup is his most unhittable pitch statistically. But his fastball is still good enough to crack the top 10 in these rankings.
That's why he's the best.
9. Jake Diekman, Oakland Athletics (402 Points)
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Metrics: 49.5 Usage%, 95.6 mph, .170 BAA, .078 ISO, 14.0 Whiff%
One of the hardest-throwing lefties in the game, Jake Diekman put together the best season of his career last year with the Oakland Athletics.
The 34-year-old posted a 0.42 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 with 13 holds in 21 appearances, making good on the first season of a two-year, $7.5 million contract.
He allowed just one extra-base hit with his fastball in 2020—a home run off the bat of Dodgers slugger Edwin Rios—and seven total over the past two years. That's good for a .078 ISO and the biggest reason for his place inside the top 10 in these rankings.
8. Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (402.6 Points)
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Metrics: 57.1 Usage%, 94.7 mph, .193 BAA, .114 ISO, 14.0 Whiff%
Julio Urias spent the bulk of the 2019 season pitching out of the bullpen. He moved into a regular rotation spot in 2020 but returned to the pen down the stretch and ended up pitching in some high-leverage relief spots in October.
Whether he sticks in the starting rotation going forward or continues to serve in a hybrid role, he has developed into one of the most dynamic young pitchers in baseball.
He can reach back for a little something extra out of the bullpen, but the good life on his fastball still makes it plenty effective when he's sitting in the mid-90s as a starter. With a slider, curveball and changeup also heavily featured in his repertoire, he's an uncomfortable at-bat for opposing hitters.
7. Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves (405.6 Points)
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Metrics: 30.8 Usage%, 94.4 mph, .227 BAA, .146 ISO, 14.2 Whiff%
Charlie Morton saw his career take off when he joined the Houston Astros in 2017 and started pitching up in the zone more with his high-spin fastball.
A sinkerballer during his time with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he has transformed his approach on the mound, and his four-seamer has been the root of his late-career success.
His primary strikeout weapon is a big breaking curveball, but his ability to tunnel it off his fastball up in the zone is what has made that such an effective put-away pitch. The 37-year-old will look to continue defying Father Time in 2021 on a one-year, $15 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.
6. Liam Hendriks, Chicago White Sox (406 Points)
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Metrics: 69.7 Usage%, 96.4 mph, .229 BAA, .112 ISO, 15.9 Whiff%
When he first debuted as a starting pitcher in 2012, Liam Hendriks threw more sinkers than he did four-seam fastballs, also mixing in a healthy dose of sliders, curveballs and changeups.
He has since developed into one of the most dominant closers in baseball, and he now throws his four-seamer roughly 70 percent of the time, complementing it with a power slider and the occasional curveball.
The 31-year-old allowed just five home runs with his fastball in 110.1 innings since the start of 2019, despite using it so frequently, and it has also made his slider a lethal strikeout pitch.
5. Kirby Yates, Toronto Blue Jays (417 Points)
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Metrics: 57.7 Usage%, 93.5 mph, .224 BAA, .121 ISO, 16.9 Whiff%
Earlier we mentioned how Hector Neris has an effective fastball thanks in large part to his splitter.
Kirby Yates has arguably the best splitter in baseball when he's healthy and everything is clicking, so it's no surprise to see that he too has parlayed that into one of the game's most effective fastballs.
The 33-year-old was dominant in 2019, converting 41 of 44 save chances with a 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 15.0 K/9 in 60 appearances. Surgery to repair bone chips in his elbow limited him to just 4.1 innings this past season, and he'll now look to make good on a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the upstart Toronto Blue Jays.
4. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (418.8 Points)
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Metrics: 32.5 Usage%, 96.9 mph, .245 BAA, .095 ISO, 12.2 Whiff%
Most pitchers either lean heavily on a sinker or pitch off a more traditional four-seam fastball, occasionally sprinkling in the other pitch as a different look.
Zack Wheeler has thrown both pitches more than 25 percent of the time the past two seasons.
That said, his four-seam fastball is the better of the two pitches across the board statistically, and his mix of premium velocity and deceptive movement makes him difficult to square up. That would explain how he's only allowed four home runs with his fastball the last two years.
3. Trevor May, New York Mets (431 Points)
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Metrics: 57.9 Usage%, 95.7 mph, .171 BAA, .131 ISO, 18.1 Whiff%
In case you were wondering why Trevor May warranted a two-year, $15.5 million contract in free agency this winter, this is your answer.
His 3.18 ERA and four saves in 89 appearances the past two seasons don't scream elite-level reliever at first glance, but the development of his fastball into one of the best in baseball gives him tremendous upside in a late-inning role.
He tallied a career-high 14.7 K/9 in 23.1 innings last season, and 23 of his 38 strikeouts came by way of his fastball. Don't be surprised if he gets a chance to close games should Edwin Diaz falter again in the ninth-inning role.
2. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (438 Points)
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Metrics: 51.9 Usage%, 97.0 mph, .185 BAA, .195 ISO, 18.0 Whiff%
I set out writing this article fully expecting Gerrit Cole to claim the No. 1 spot in the rankings, so to see him at No. 2 is a bit of a surprise.
His fastball whiff rate is elite, especially for a starting pitcher, but he has been prone to making mistakes and getting punished with his upper-90s gas.
He has allowed 43 home runs since the start of 2019 and 25 of them have come off his fastball, which explains his fairly high ISO relative to some of the other top names on this list.
At the same time, the 214 strikeouts he's piled up with his fastball during that stretch speak volumes.
1. Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (481.2 Points)
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Metrics: 36.8 Usage%, 96.4 mph, .212 BAA, .111 ISO, 15.6 Whiff%
A burly 6'4", 243-pound right-hander with prototypical power pitcher stuff, Brandon Woodruff pulls off an upset here and earns the top fastball distinction.
It's surprising at first blush, but the 27-year-old right-hander checks all of the boxes with elite velocity, an impressive whiff rate and a stellar ISO thanks to his ability to generate a good downward plane and keep the ball on the ground.
His ground-ball rate was nearly 50 percent in 2020, which coupled with a 31.1 percent strikeout rate didn't leave much room for quality contact from opposing hitters.
Corbin Burnes had the better surface numbers during a breakout 2020 season, but it's Woodruff who profiles as the present and future ace in Milwaukee and a young pitching star on the rise.
All pitch value stats, usage rates and velocity averages courtesy of FanGraphs, while BAA, ISO and Whiff% numbers come from Brooks Baseball.
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