Super Bowl Odds 2021: Early Payout Breakdown and Over/Under Breakdown
Picking a winner for Super Bowl 55 requires you to either bet against Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.
Wagering against either quarterback is typically frowned upon because of how consistent they have been in big games.
Mahomes has led the Kansas City Chiefs to back-to-back Super Bowl berths, while Brady flipped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into a title contender in one season.
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Brady carries the best value on the betting line for the February 7 contest at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point favorite.
If you do not feel comfortable betting against either signal-caller, you could look to the over/under, which projects there will be plenty of points in the first Super Bowl showdown between Brady and Mahomes.
Early Payout Breakdown
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds: Kansas City (-162; bet $162 to win $100); Tampa Bay (+143; bet $100 to win $143)
The good news for Brady is that he does not have to face an NFC East team in the Super Bowl.
All three of Brady's Super Bowl defeats occurred against teams in that division. The New York Giants beat the New England Patriots twice and the Philadelphia Eagles did so once.
Brady has won quarterback duels against Kurt Warner, Jake Delhomme, Donovan McNabb, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff.
A strong argument could be made that Mahomes is the best quarterback Brady will ever face in the Super Bowl, especially if he progresses at his current trajectory.
Mahomes is 2-2 against Brady, and he came out on top in their most-recent regular-season battle in Week 12.
Brady beat Mahomes once in the regular season and once in the postseason to reach the Super Bowl two seasons ago.
Although Brady has won five more championships, the edge in experience may not be there since Mahomes is 12 months removed from his first Super Bowl triumph.
In Mahomes' two wins over Brady, he received help from his defense. Brady-led teams have not scored more than 20 points in losses to the Mahomes-led Chiefs.
Kansas City's first-string defense allowed over 20 points once in its last three games, and that one concession had a touchdown in the final stages of the AFC Championship Game.
If the Chiefs come up with another game plan that thwarts Brady's impact, the Chiefs could earn back-to-back titles and the under will be in play.
Over/Under Breakdown
Odds: 56.5
Your gut instinct may lead to an over bet because of the two quarterbacks on the field.
Banking on Brady and Mahomes to combine for 57 points is not a terrible wager, but recent history suggests the under may be a better play than you think.
The last two Super Bowls would have gone under the projected total for February 7, as would the last two meetings between Brady and Mahomes.
Week 12's showdown at Raymond James Stadium featured 51 points, which was much higher than the first victory earned by Mahomes over Brady.
Kansas City beat New England 23-16 in Week 14 of the 2019 season, a game that turned out to be Brady's last meeting with the Chiefs as a Patriots player.
If you look at a larger sample size from this season, the Chiefs and Bucs have not been involved in many games that produced more than 60 points.
Since the Week 12 win over Tampa Bay, Kansas City has had four games feature fewer than 60 points. The Week 14 and 15 victories over Miami and New Orleans barely eclipsed that threshold.
Tampa Bay's NFC Championship Game total was right on the current over/under mark. They combined with the Green Bay Packers for 57 points. Prior to Sunday, five of the last six Tampa Bay games failed to hit the 60-point barrier.
Even though the over/under is set a few points beneath 60, that is a good round number to use to judge how many points are typically in Chiefs and Bucs contests.
At least one of the two teams has to eclipse 30 points for the over to hit, and that has not happened in the last two Brady-Mahomes showdowns.
The trend could reverse back to a high-scoring affair, but it is not a lock to see 57 points in Super Bowl 55.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90
Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference
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