Bucs vs. Saints: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for 2021 NFC Divisional Game

Tom Brady notched his first playoff victory with a team other than the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round when he led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a win at Washington. But if he's going to lead the Bucs on a deeper run, he will need to get past a team that gave him some troubles during the regular season.

Tampa Bay, the No. 5 seed in the NFC, is set to go on the road to face the No. 2-seeded New Orleans Saints in a divisional-round matchup Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET on Fox. It will be the third time these NFC South rivals have faced off this season, with the Saints having won the first two contests.

In Week 1, New Orleans opened the season with a 34-23 win over Tampa Bay. When the two teams met again in Week 9 in Tampa Bay, things went even worse for the Bucs, as the Saints rolled to a 38-3 victory.

Here's a look at the odds for the third and final matchup between the Buccaneers and Saints this season, along with stat predictions for several of the top players in the contest.

Current Odds

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Spread: New Orleans (-3)

Over/Under: 52 points

Moneyline: New Orleans -165 (bet $165 to win $100); Tampa Bay +143 (bet $100 to win $143)

Via DraftKings Sportsbook

Thomas Gets into End Zone for 2nd Week in a Row

Butch Dill/Associated Press

For the most part, it's been a disappointing season for Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas. Expected to once again be one of the top playmakers in the NFL, he was limited to seven games because of injury, recording 40 receptions for 438 yards. Most shocking? He had no touchdowns in the regular season.

Thomas finally got into the end zone in New Orleans' Wild Card Round victory against the Chicago Bears. He had five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown, which was an 11-yard scoring pass that gave the Saints a 7-0 lead in the first quarter.

Perhaps now that Thomas has ended his touchdown drought, he will build some momentum. He played in both of New Orleans' regular-season games against Tampa Bay, combining for eight receptions for 68 yards between the matchups. He could be set up for a better showing this time.

In the Wild Card Round, Thomas was playing in his first game for nearly a month because of a stint on injured reserve. Expect him to be an instrumental part of the Saints passing attack against the Bucs.

Prediction: Thomas hauls in seven passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.

Brady Struggles Again While Facing Tough Saints Defense

Jason Behnken/Associated Press

When Brady played in New Orleans in his Bucs debut in Week 1, he had a decent showing. He passed for 239 yards and two touchdowns, and although he also had two interceptions, he accounted for a third touchdown by getting into the end zone on the ground. It may have been a loss, but Brady was getting acclimated to having new teammates and a new offense.

But Brady's second showing against the powerful Saints defense was a different story. He passed for 209 yards but threw a season-high three interceptions. The Buccaneers scored a season-low three points in the lopsided home defeat.

It's going to be a tough task again for Brady to go up against this New Orleans defense. The Saints ranked fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (310.9), as they were strong against both the pass (217 yards allowed per game) and the run (93.9). It's difficult to get either attack going against them.

If the Bucs win this divisional-round matchup, they will likely have gotten the better of a low-scoring defensive battle because Brady likely isn't going to put up big numbers. And while they may be better than last time, don't expect an all-time-great performance by the 43-year-old quarterback.

Prediction: Brady passes for 197 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

Kamara Makes Bigger Impact in Passing Game Than on Ground

Brett Duke/Associated Press

No team was better at stopping the run during the regular season than the Buccaneers. They allowed 80.6 rushing yards per game, with no other team averaging less than 90.5.

Saints running back Alvin Kamara had a tremendous season, and even he couldn't get much going on the ground against Tampa Bay. He had 12 carries for 16 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and then had nine carries for 40 yards and a touchdown in Week 9.

However, Kamara is one of the best receiving backs in the league, especially when quarterback Drew Brees is leading New Orleans' offense. And if Kamara can't get much yardage on the ground, then it's highly possible that he will still influence the game via the Saints' passing attack.

Expect a solid game from Kamara in which he gets close to the 100-total-yard mark and gets into the end zone, potentially at a crucial time for New Orleans. Although Tampa Bay may shut him down early, once Kamara gets going (especially as a receiver out of the backfield), he can be tough to stop.

Prediction: Kamara compiles 96 total yards (30 rushing and 66 receiving) and a touchdown.

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