NFL Playoff Picture 2021: Wild-Card Odds, Picks and Matchup Scenarios

Lamar Jackson has the opportunity to exorcise some demons as the Baltimore Ravens start their postseason quest Sunday afternoon.

Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason and has not beaten the Tennessee Titans in his past two meetings with the AFC South side.

With Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and the Baltimore offense trending in the right direction and the Titans struggling to make stops, the third-year quarterback is in a good position to earn the first playoff win of his career against his old nemesis.

Josh Allen put together a better season than Jackson, but he is also in search of his first postseason victory.

Allen and the second-seeded Buffalo Bills face a tricky matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, but the player taken 25 slots ahead of Jackson in the 2018 NFL draft could use the wild-card weekend opener as a statement game in which to prove his team's worth as a Super Bowl contender.

Wild-Card Schedule and Odds

Saturday, January 9

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-6.5) (1:05 p.m. ET, CBS)

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-3) (4:40 p.m. ET, Fox)

Tampa Bay (-8) at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET, NBC)

Sunday, January 10

Baltimore (-3.5) at Tennessee (1:05 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC)

Chicago at New Orleans (-10) (4:40 p.m. ET, CBS)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6) (8:15 p.m., NBC)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Picks against the spread in bold.

Picks

Baltimore (-3.5) at Tennessee 

Aaron Doster/Associated Press

Baltimore's offense and Tennessee's defense are trending in opposite directions.

The Ravens closed the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, reeling off five straight wins to land the No. 5 seed in the AFC. Jackson and Dobbins led a rushing attack that totaled more than 200 yards in four of those five games. Baltimore produced at least 27 points in each of those contests.

It must be noted that those numbers came against some of the weaker teams in the NFL, but that should not take away from the momentum gained.

The Ravens may be able to breeze through the Titans defense that conceded more than 400 total yards to each of their last three opponents. They let up a combined 78 points in Weeks 16 and 17 to the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans.

If the Titans are unable to get stops, Derrick Henry's impact on the game could be lessened. And Ryan Tannehill could be forced to win the game through the air if the Titans are trailing at points of the fourth quarter. To force that scenario, the Ravens need to limit Henry's ground gains or keep him off the field by putting together extended drives.

The Ravens were unable to halt Henry's progress last postseason, as he ran for 195 yards on 30 carries, but the Kansas City Chiefs proved a week later that there is a path to slowing him down.

Kansas City held the Titans running back to 69 yards in the AFC Championship Game. If Baltimore borrows some concepts the Chiefs used and benefits from its experience playing against Henry, it should be able to slow him down on a few drives.

Containing Henry for stretches and maintaining their own ground game dominance should see Jackson avenge the loss from last postseason and the overtime defeat from Week 11 to earn his first playoff triumph.

A victory may set up the Ravens with a divisional-round trip to face Kansas City. If the Colts or the Cleveland Browns win, Baltimore would face the highest-seeded AFC winner from wild-card weekend.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-6.5)

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

The Bills have lost once since Week 7 and that one defeat came on a last-second touchdown pass from Kyler Murray.

Allen and Co. reeled off six straight victories after their Week 11 bye to place themselves on the opposite side of the AFC bracket to the Chiefs.

Sean McDermott's side is expected to open wild-card weekend with a win over the Colts since it is 7-1 on home soil and it has an average margin of victory of 11 points inside Bills Stadium this season.

Buffalo's past four home victories have been by 10 points or more—the two single-digit victories were over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3 and New England Patriots in Week 8.

Those trends do not bode well for the Colts, who suffered four of their five defeats against playoff teams in the AFC.

The primary difference between the Bills and Colts is the explosiveness in the passing game. Allen threw for 375 more yards and had 13 more touchdowns than Philip Rivers.

Allen also has a more dynamic set of threats at wide receiver. Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley both would have been the leading receiver on the Colts roster by a wide margin. Diggs recorded 1,535 receiving yards and Beasley chipped in 967 yards. T.Y. Hilton was Indianapolis' top pass-catcher with 762 yards.

Buffalo's front seven could aid its offense in opening up a larger gap in passing numbers Saturday. The Bills held three of their past four opponents under 200 passing yards.

Rivers carries more postseason experience than Allen, but he only has two 300-yard performances in 11 postseason appearances. He has been intercepted in eight of those contests. If the Bills put pressure on Rivers early and possibly force a turnover or two, the Colts could be doomed.

A Bills win would see them face the highest-remaining seed at home in the divisional round. The No. 2 seed in each conference is guaranteed to host a second playoff game by winning in the Wild Card Round.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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