Ranking the Most Intriguing Buy-Low Starting Pitchers in MLB Free Agency
The 2020-21 MLB free-agent market was already thin on starting pitching before Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman both accepted their qualifying offers to return to their teams for another year.
What's left is a market headlined by NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, but sorely lacking in alternative options who don't come with significant injury or performance question marks.
Seasoned veterans Adam Wainwright and Masahiro Tanaka represent the best of the second-tier of starters, while 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi is also expected to bounce back from a lost 2020 campaign.
Beyond those four starters, it's slim pickings, but there are a number of intriguing bounce-back candidates who could provide significant value on a low-cost, short-term deal.
Ahead we've ranked the nine most appealing buy-low starting pitching options still available in free agency, based on the likelihood they will provide positive value going forward.
There are plenty of familiar names on this list, and each of them come with their own mix of upside and red flags.
Other Buy-Low Candidates to Watch
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These guys didn't quite crack our top 10, but they could wind up in an MLB rotation in 2021:
- Chase Anderson
- Jake Arrieta
- Tyler Chatwood
- Mike Fiers
- Mike Foltynewicz
- Felix Hernandez
- Martin Perez (L)
- Rick Porcello
- Carlos Rodon (L)
- Matt Shoemaker
- Julio Teheran
- Trevor Williams
- Alex Wood (L)
9. LHP Cole Hamels
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Does Cole Hamels have anything left in the tank?
The 36-year-old has 2,698 regular season innings under his belt, good for fifth among active pitchers, and another 100.1 postseason frames to boot.
However, he threw just 3.1 innings in his lone start of the 2020 season after signing a one-year, $18 million contract with the Atlanta Braves last offseason.
The left-hander developed left shoulder tendinitis during spring training 2.0 and he was never able to fully recover during the shortened season. Still, he's just a year removed from a very productive season with the Chicago Cubs.
In 2019, he went 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 143 strikeouts in 141.2 innings, and several teams are showing interest this offseason, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Age and injury concerns are enough to put him at No. 10 on this list, but if he's healthy he'll be a solid veteran addition to any starting staff.
8. RHP Corey Kluber
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As recently as 2018, Corey Kluber was still one of baseball's elite starting pitchers, going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 222 strikeouts in 215 innings to finish in the top three in AL Cy Young voting for the fourth time in five years.
He struggled out of the gates in 2019, logging a 5.80 ERA in seven starts before a liner back through the box resulted in a fractured right arm. That ended his season and his time in Cleveland, as he was traded to the Texas Rangers last offseason.
He lasted just one inning in his Rangers debut before he was pulled from the game with shoulder tightness, and he was later diagnosed with a Grade 2 major teres strain in the shoulder.
The 34-year-old plans to throw for interested teams in January, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, and that will be a telling showcase of where he's at right now physically.
There are worse players to roll the dice on than a two-time Cy Young winner, but he has a lot of mileage on his arm.
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7. RHP Chris Archer
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At his peak, Chris Archer was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
As the ace of the staff for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2014 through 2017, he logged a 3.66 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while averaging 227 strikeouts and 202 innings per year. He made a pair of AL All-Star teams during that stretch and finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2015.
However, his time in Pittsburgh was an unmitigated disaster, starting with the absurd collection of talent the Pirates parted with to acquire him.
He had a 5.19 ERA in 119.2 innings in 2019 before undergoing thoracic outlet surgery at the end of August, and he spent the entire 2020 season recovering.
Despite the lackluster ERA, his 10.8 K/9 prior to going under the knife speaks to the quality of his stuff, and there's plenty of value in a veteran who can miss bats even if he never fully returns to form.
6. RHP Trevor Cahill
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The San Francisco Giants hit the jackpot with their buy-low addition of Kevin Gausman last offseason, and he wasn't the only low-cost success story on the pitching staff.
After a shaky season with the Los Angeles Angels in 2019 where he posted a 5.98 ERA in 102.1 innings between the rotation and bullpen, Trevor Cahill signed a minor league deal with the Giants last February.
The 32-year-old did not make his 2020 debut until Aug. 12 after dealing with a fingernail issue on his right index finger, but he quickly proved worth the wait.
In six starts and five relief appearances, he pitched to a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 25 innings, and his 31 strikeouts were good for a career-high 11.2 K/9 rate.
Beyond the stellar strikeout numbers, his hard-hit rate (35.6%) and exit velocity (87.5 mph) were both the lowest they have been in three years, and his 4.19 FIP doesn't scream significant regression to come.
He has not topped 120 innings in a season since 2013, so relying on him to make 30 starts would be foolish, but he's capable of providing positive value in an abridged role.
5. LHP Jose Quintana
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Jose Quintana never came close to expectations with the Chicago Cubs after he was acquired from the crosstown Chicago White Sox in a deal that sent Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease the other way.
However, prior to an injury-shortened 2020 season where he pitched just 10 innings after cutting his hand on a broken wine glass, he was an effective middle-of-the-rotation starter in his two full seasons with the North Siders.
- 2018: 32 GS, 13-11, 4.03 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 158 K, 174.1 IP
- 2019: 31 GS, 13-9, 4.68 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 152 K, 171.0 IP
In this market, it's not out of the question to think he could land a multi-year deal, considering his injury was not a structural issue and he's still just 31 years old with less than 1,500 innings on his arm.
He's not the frontline starter the Cubs were hoping he would be when they paid such a steep price to acquire him, but he's capable of chewing up innings in a No. 3/4 starter role on a contender.
4. LHP J.A. Happ
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By the end of the 2020 season, J.A. Happ was the best starter on the New York Yankees roster not named Gerrit Cole.
In his final seven starts, he went 2-1 with a 2.34 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 39 strikeouts in 42.1 innings, tallying three quality starts along the way and tossing eight shutout innings against the Boston Red Sox on Sept. 19.
Over the past five seasons, he has a 61-31 record with a 3.77 ERA and 115 ERA+ while pitching in the AL East for the Blue Jays and Yankees.
The 38-year-old is a risky pickup on anything beyond a one-year deal, but there might not be a safer short-term option on the market.
For a contender looking to solidify the starting staff with a seasoned veteran who can eat up innings, Happ is the perfect target, and he shouldn't cost anywhere near the $17 million salary he pulled in the last two seasons with the Yankees.
3. RHP Garrett Richards
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The San Diego Padres signed Garrett Richards to a two-year, $15.5 million prior to the 2019 season, knowing he would spend the bulk of his first season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
He made three appearances late in the 2019 season, then joined the rotation full-time in 2020, logging a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 10 starts before moving to the bullpen down the stretch to prepare for his expected postseason role.
Those numbers look even better if you remove one clunker against the Seattle Mariners when he allowed six earned runs and recorded just two outs. In his other nine starts, he had a 3.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
His fastball velocity (95.4 mph) bounced back nicely on the other side of his arm injury, and his slider remained elite with a spin rate that ranked in the 99th percentile.
The 32-year-old still comes with some health risk given his track record, but he's one of the few viable options for a multi-year deal in this year's free agent class.
2. LHP James Paxton
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After undergoing back surgery in February, James Paxton never looked like himself over five ugly starts for the New York Yankees in 2020.
His fastball velocity dipped from 95.7 mph in 2019 to 92.6 mph, and his opponents' batting average spiked from .242 to .284 as a result.
The result was a 6.64 ERA in 20.1 innings before he was diagnosed with a flexor tendon strain and shut down for the season in late August.
Even with diminished stuff, he still struck out 26 batters for 11.5 K/9, and he was still plenty deceptive with a 13.2 percent swinging strike rate.
He threw in front of scouts earlier this week with roughly 20 teams in attendance, and his velocity was back up to 94 mph, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
The 32-year-old has never made 30 starts in a season, so injuries are part of the equation, but if he's back to being the pitcher who went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 186 strikeouts in 150.2 innings he could be a game-changing, low-cost addition in a market thin on impact arms.
1. RHP Taijuan Walker
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Once regarded as one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Taijuan Walker was one of the biggest unknowns on the free-agent market last offseason after pitching a grand total of 14 innings in 2018 and 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The Seattle Mariners, who originally drafted him with the No. 43 overall pick in the 2010 draft, took a chance on him with a one-year, $2 million contract and he quickly pitched his way into being one of the most sought after arms on the summer trade market with a 4.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five starts.
He joined the Toronto Blue Jays for the stretch run and made six more starts for them, posting a 1.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 25 strikeouts in 26.1 innings.
His final stat line: 11 GS, 4-3, 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 19 BB, 50 K, 53.1 IP
Beneath those surface numbers, his fastball velocity (93.5 mph) was close to pre-injury levels and he did a solid job limiting hard contact with a 32.9 percent hard-hit rate that ranked in the 74th percentile.
With all of that said, arguably the biggest chip in his favor is the fact that in a market filled with aging veterans, he's still only 28 years old.
There's not a better candidate for a multi-year deal among the second-tier starters, and if he stays healthy he could be a huge bargain for whoever scoops him up this winter.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball and FanGraphs.
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