Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 16: Smart Sleepers to Exploit and Lineup Advice

It's championship week for a big chunk of the fantasy football world.

Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season is overloaded with intriguing matchups across its four-day slate, and all of them could have a say in crowning a league winner.

Navigating this many roster decisions is always tricky, and the challenge is only amplified with the heightened stakes.

We're here to help simplify the process with some matchup-based recommendations over which players to start and bench in the week ahead.

Start: Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

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Tying championship hopes to Baker Mayfield isn't a recommendation made for the faint of heart.

The 25-year-old is uncomfortably capable of laying an egg—he had a brutal three-game scoreless streak in November—so he always occupies a place in the boom-or-bust region of the fantasy world.

But Mayfield has been booming more than busting of late. He has 10 touchdown passes (plus a touchdown run) against a single interception over his past four outings. He threw for better than 250 yards in each of them and cleared 330 passing yards in two.

Now, he's set up to feast against his juiciest matchup of the season. The New York Jets might have finally earned a notch in the win column, but they still allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, per Yahoo.

The stars are aligning for Mayfield to go berserk.

Sit: Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

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Kirk Cousins also lives in the hit-or-miss tier, though like Mayfield, it's been more good than bad lately. He has 12 touchdown passes against two interceptions in his past five games and topped 300 passing yards in three of them.

But the 32-year-old—like most fringe starters—can be matchup-dependent. When he's squared off with an elite defense, the results often haven't been pretty. In Week 8, he managed just 160 yards and a score against the Green Bay Packers; in Week 2, he went just 11-of-26 for 113 yards, no scores and three interceptions against the Indianapolis Colts.

Both defenses have ranked among the stingiest versus fantasy quarterbacks. But the New Orleans Saints have surrendered even less production, allowing just the fourth-fewest points to the position.

As hard as it might be to abandon the hot hand, the forecast is calling for a cold front with Cousins.

Start: Ronald Jones II, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

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Early recommendations in the week are always challenging, since so much can change on the injury front. To that end, you'll need to keep a close eye on Ronald Jones II's status to determine if he deserves a Week 16 start.

The 23-year-old couldn't go in Week 15, after having surgery on a broken finger and then landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list. That left Leonard Fournette getting the bulk of Tampa's carries, though the Bucs largely avoided the ground game (18 total attempts) and relied on Tom Brady to engineer their comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons (45 passes).

The script could flip in a hurry if Jones is good to go in Week 16, though. He has played some of his best football to date in recent weeks, rushing for 192 yards and a score in Week 10 and turning 18 carries into 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 14.

If he gets the green light, he could run wild against a Detroit Lions defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Sit: Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

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The San Francisco 49ers have their issues, but containing opposing running backs isn't one of them.

While the team is trapped in a three-game losing streak, those struggles can't be pinned on the defense. In fact, San Francisco has outgained its opponents 802-484 over the past two weeks.

The Niners haven't allowed 100 team rushing yards in any of those three losses, which is awful news for Kenyan Drake. Then again, he knows as well as anyone how stingy this defense can be. When these teams met in Week 1, he touched the ball 18 times and still finished with only 65 scrimmage yards.

Even if the Cardinals try to go run-heavy against the Niners, that doesn't necessarily mean the 26-year-old would benefit from the approach. He's splitting carries with Chase Edmonds, and quarterback Kyler Murray plays a big role in the rushing game.

With workload questions and a brutal matchup—the Niners have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position—Drake is best avoided by anyone with viable alternatives.