NFL Week 15 Leaves Final Playoff Spots in Wild Disarray
With 33 games remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, 21 teams remain alive for 14 playoff spots.
Some of those teams—namely the Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles—are extreme long shots. Others—namely the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—are pretty much locked into their spots.
But there remains a lot up in the air, especially if you're competing in a tight divisional race (like the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West or everybody but particularly the New York Giants and Washington Football Team in the NFC East) or a fierce wild-card battle (like the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC or the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears in the NFC).
Following a busy 15th Sunday of the 2020 season, let's break it down.
AFC No. 5: Cleveland Browns (10-4)
1 of 10
A Sunday Night Football victory over the Giants keeps the Browns in the top wild-card spot because they beat the Colts head-to-head back in Week 5.
They're just a win back of the first-place Steelers in the AFC North, but the tiebreaker scenario makes them a long shot in the division. Still, they're looking good with the 1-13 New York Jets on deck before a finale at home against the Steelers.
A 1-1 finish should do the trick for a team that has lost just once since Week 8, but the Browns will still need help to clinch in Week 16.
AFC No. 6: Tennessee Titans (10-4) or Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
2 of 10
For now, this spot belongs to the Colts because the Titans lead the AFC South thanks to a 4-1 record within the division (compared to 3-2 for Indianapolis).
The Titans, who have averaged 37.4 points per game the last five weeks, finish up on the road against the Packers and Houston Texans, both of whom rank below the league median in defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average at Football Outsiders).
The Colts, whose only loss in the last month came against Tennessee, finish up in Pittsburgh and then at home for the one-win Jacksonville Jaguars. It's worth noting, though, that the Jags' only win this season came over Indy in Week 1.
The most likely scenario? Both teams finish 11-5 and the Colts settle for one of these three wild-card spots.
AFC No. 7: Miami Dolphins (9-5)
3 of 10
The Dolphins currently hold the edge over the Ravens thanks to a better conference record than the Ravens (they're 6-4, Baltimore is 6-5), but FiveThirtyEight actually gives Baltimore a significantly better chance at making the playoffs.
That has to do with the fact Miami still has to travel to Las Vegas and Buffalo, while Baltimore closes out the regular season with a home game against the Giants and a road matchup with the 2-10-1 Cincinnati Bengals.
There's practically no margin for error for the young Dolphins and their rookie quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, as they try to hold off an experienced Baltimore team.
.jpg?w=256 "Eagles Sirianni Football")
.jpg?w=256 "Titans Football")
AFC on the Outside Looking In: Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
4 of 10
Again, the odds are still in the Ravens' favor because they'll be favored in each of their last two games while Miami has a much tougher finish. The Ravens don't control their own destiny, but they'll likely get in with two more wins.
Also alive in the AFC is 7-7 Las Vegas, but the Raiders would need to beat the Dolphins and then defeat the Denver Broncos on the road and they'd also need plenty of help from teams like the Giants and Bengals (as well as the Bills in a Week 17 game that might be meaningless to them).
The key games in this race now are Dolphins-Raiders on Saturday night and Giants-Ravens on Sunday afternoon.
NFC No. 5: Los Angeles Rams (9-5)
5 of 10
The Rams continue to be focused on the NFC West despite falling behind the Seahawks due to an embarrassing loss to the Jets on Sunday. If they can beat Seattle on the road in Week 16, they'll be back in the driver's seat ahead of a Week 17 home matchup with the Cardinals.
However, even if the Rams lose that game, they'll grab a wild-card spot unless they also fall to the Cards, the Bears win out over the Jags and Packers and the 49ers beat Arizona in Week 16, creating a three-way tiebreaker that would favor Arizona and Chicago.
So Sunday's L.A.-Seattle game is huge, but we'll likely see both on the second weekend of January anyway.
NFC No. 6: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)
6 of 10
After a Tampa Bay win and a New Orleans loss in Week 15, the Bucs can still technically leapfrog the Saints in the NFC South, but that would require victories over the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans losses against Minnesota and the Carolina Panthers.
But like the Rams, the Bucs are almost a lock to make the playoffs. To miss out, they'd have to lose out, the Bears would have to beat Jacksonville and Green Bay and Arizona would have to beat either San Francisco, the Rams or both.
Los Angeles has the head-to-head tiebreaker edge over Tampa Bay thanks to a Week 11 victory, but if the Rams and Bucs both win out, L.A. would be out of the picture as the NFC West champ and Tampa Bay would wind up in the No. 5 seed ahead of the Seahawks.
NFC No. 7: Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
7 of 10
The Cardinals have rebounded from a rough stretch with back-to-back wins over NFC East opponents to secure a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.
One more win combined with one more Chicago loss gets the job done, and they'll be favored to beat San Francisco in Week 16 while the Bears still have to deal with Green Bay in Week 17. But they can't mess around because they have to play the Rams on the road in Week 17 and the Bears play 1-13 Jacksonville on Sunday.
NFC on the Outside Looking In: Chicago Bears (7-7)
8 of 10
The Bears have recovered from a six-game losing streak in order to remain alive, but they'll need help.
At the very least, they'll likely have to win two more games to finish the season on a four-game winning streak, which would require a Week 17 victory over the Packers following a likely win next Sunday in Jacksonville. But even if that happens, they'd need the Cardinals to lose once more or Tampa Bay to lose out against Detroit and Atlanta.
They can also sneak in with a 1-1 finish if the Cards lose to both the 49ers and Rams.
The Vikings, who lost to the Bears on Sunday to fall to 6-8, also remain alive but would need a minor miracle that would require wins over New Orleans and Detroit (both on the road), Arizona losses to San Francisco and the Rams and no more than one more win for Chicago.
Full AFC Playoff Predictions
9 of 10
Current standings
1. Chiefs (13-1)
2. Steelers (11-2)
3. Bills (11-3)
4. Titans (10-4)
5. Browns (10-4)
6. Colts (10-4)
7. Dolphins (9-5)
-----
8. Ravens (9-5)
9. Raiders (7-7)
Predictions
1. Chiefs (14-2)
We'll suppose that after locking up a first-round bye with a home victory over the Falcons and a Colts win over Pittsburgh in Week 16, the Chiefs sit back and relax against the Chargers in Week 17.
2. Bills (13-3)
The Bills land a No. 2 seed or higher for the first time since 1993, and yet it's the first season in which that seed doesn't get a first-round bye. They host a playoff game for the first time since 1994, and yet there will be no fans present to enjoy it. Tough luck. Anyway, even if they do stumble against the Dolphins or New England Patriots in the next two weeks, they're locked in as at least a No. 4 seed.
3. Colts (12-4)
The key here is I have the Colts beating the tiring Steelers on short rest in Pittsburgh in Week 16 and the Titans falling in Green Bay, which would then require Indy to merely defeat the Jaguars in Week 17 to lock up the AFC South and possibly even jump ahead of the Steelers and Bills.
4. Steelers (12-4)
The division is basically theirs now, and you wonder if they might try to preserve some gas after beating the Bengals on Monday night. I have them losing to the Colts and Bengals to close out the year.
5. Browns (12-4)
There's no reason they shouldn't pound the Jets, and we'll side with them in a fairly meaningless Week 17 meeting with Pittsburgh, setting up an awesome wild-card rematch.
6. Titans (11-5)
They could certainly beat the Packers in Week 16, but that's a much tougher road matchup than Indy's meeting with the Steelers. It's a huge game for Green Bay at home. If they indeed lose there and the Colts win, the Titans almost certainly settle for a wild-card spot regardless of what happens against Houston in Week 17.
7. Ravens (11-5)
Baltimore appears to be rallying just in time, and it has much easier matchups than Miami in each of the next two weeks. I expect the Ravens to take care of the Giants and Bengals, and I don't think the Dolphins are beating both the Raiders and Bills on the road.
-----
8. Dolphins (10-6)
I'm just not sure this team is ready for prime time with such a tough final stretch.
9. Raiders (8-8)
Even if they get to 9-7, they won't get enough help.
Full NFC Playoff Predictions
10 of 10
Current standings
1. Packers (11-3)
2. Saints (10-4)
3. Seahawks (10-4)
4. Washington (6-8)
5. Rams (9-5)
6. Buccaneers (9-5)
7. Cardinals (8-6)
-----
8. Bears (7-7)
9. Vikings (6-8)
11. Cowboys (5-9)
13. Giants (5-9)
14. Eagles (4-9-1)
Predictions
1. Packers (13-3)
They could theoretically take their foot off the gas pedal following a Week 16 win over the Titans at home, but if Seattle and New Orleans also win in Weeks 16 and 17, the Packers would have to beat the Bears in Week 17 in order to secure the top seed. I have the Saints and Seahawks applying pressure with Week 16 wins over the Vikings and Rams, respectively.
2. Saints (12-4)
Packers 37, Saints 30 in Week 3 would be the difference, which stinks for the Saints because they should beat the Vikes and Panthers to close out the schedule.
3. Seahawks (12-4)
I'm giving Russell Wilson and Co. the edge at home against the Rams in a crucial Week 16 matchup, and then they should cruise in San Francisco to wrap up the division.
4. Washington (7-9)
The WFT merely needs a Week 16 victory at home against Carolina and a Giants loss to Baltimore on the road, and it's over. Those results seem likely. But even if Washington were to slip up against the Panthers, a Week 17 win over Philadelphia would likely do the trick.
5. Buccaneers (11-5)
They get an easy finish against the Lions and Falcons.
6. Cardinals (10-6)
The key here is the Cards might still have to beat the Rams in Week 17 to make the playoffs, while L.A. will have already clinched a playoff spot thanks to Arizona's Week 16 win over San Francisco. So we'll give Arizona the nod to leapfrog the Rams on the final day of the regular season.
7. Rams (9-7)
I haven't believed in the Rams all year, and now I've got them finishing the season on a three-game losing streak.
-----
8. Bears (8-8)
They should beat the Jaguars and could even beat the Packers if they rest starters, but it would still be too little, too late in this scenario.
9. Vikings (7-9)
They'll probably lose to the Saints, and then their Week 17 matchup with Detroit won't matter.
10. Giants (6-10)
I don't think this team is well-positioned to beat the Ravens on the road right now, which would leave it hoping for Washington to lose out and a Week 17 victory over the Cowboys. And even if that were to happen, it would need Dallas to beat Philadelphia in Week 16 or the Eagles would steal the division.
11. Eagles (5-10-1)
They need to win out, and they need both Washington and the Giants to lose in Week 16. The Giants are likely to lose to Baltimore in Week 16, and Philly could certainly beat the Cowboys and Washington to close out the year. But even if all that happens, the WFT would probably spoil the party with a win over Carolina next Sunday.
12. Cowboys (5-11)
They need to win out and have Washington lose out. Neither scenario is likely.
.jpg?w=480 "Eagles Sirianni Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Titans Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Vikings Rookies Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Bears Ravens Football")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
.jpg?w=600 "Ranking Every Team's Farm System 📊")