Nolan Arenado Isn't the Magic Bullet for Mets—or Any Team—amid Trade Rumors

Whether the New York Mets are actually interested in trading for Nolan Arenado is unclear, but the Colorado Rockies would apparently like it if they were.

As noted by Danny Abriano of SNY, MLB.com reported Jon Morosi said on MLB Network on Wednesday that the Rockies "want to engage" with the Mets on Arenado. 

Though there wouldn't be any harm in the Mets hearing the Rockies out, they should know that actually doing a deal for the superstar third baseman would be fraught with peril.

Nolan Arenado's Resume

• 29 years old
• 2nd-round draft pick in 2009
• MLB debut on April 28, 2013
• 8-time Gold Glover
• 5-time All-Star
• 4-time Silver Slugger
• National League-high 33.0 rWAR since 2015
• Owed $199 million through 2026

Why Arenado Has More Name Value Than Trade Value Right Now

After back-to-back playoff berths in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies have been a fourth-place team in each of the last two seasons. And as owner Dick Monfort hinted in a letter to season-ticket holders, the club didn't come away unscathed from a pandemic-shortened 2020 season that reportedly cost the league $3 billion.

These are excuses for the Rockies to shed payroll and add controllable talent. Moving Arenado and what's left of his extension is the best way to do that in theory, and the Mets are likewise a sensible landing spot for him in theory.

After years of operating with middling payrolls under the Wilpons, the Mets are now in the hands of billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen. He instantly became by far the richest owner in Major League Baseball when his purchase was finalized in November.

Cohen has already reached into his deep pockets to sign catcher James McCann and right-hander Trevor May to deals worth $56.1 million. Yet the Mets still have needs to fill, including one in the middle of their lineup that opened when MLB suspended veteran second baseman Robinson Cano for the 2021 season.

If the Mets were to trade for Arenado, he would slot in at third base and push Jeff McNeil—an All-Star in his own right—to second base. That would be a scary look for a lineup that was scary enough in 2020, leading MLB with a .272 average and a 122 OPS+.

And yet the caveats on the Arenado-to-the-Mets idea are threefold.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

For one, Arenado's contract comes with a full no-trade clause. Because he's clearly unhappy with the situation in Denver, it's easy to assume he'd waive it for the Mets. Then again, that's just an assumption.

For two, Arenado's contract also includes an opt-out after 2021. Any trade involving him will have to account for that, perhaps with a stipulation that he agree to waive it ahead of time.

For three, any team that trades for Arenado this winter would be buying low on him.

He was as sure a thing as there was in the National League between 2015 and 2019, wherein he averaged a 129 OPS+, 40 home runs and 6.3 rWAR per season. But in 2020, he injured his left shoulder early in the season and never fully healed en route to an 84 OPS+, eight homers and a career-low 1.6 rWAR.

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, evaluators project that Arenado would get between $100 million and $125 million if he was a free agent this winter. If so, there's no way the Mets are going to do any deal in which they take on the entirety of his remaining contract.

The Mets would need the Rockies to either chip in some cash or take some salary back. For example, the Rockies could take Cano and the $48 million he's owed across 2022 and 2023. And perhaps third baseman/left fielder J.D. Davis, who could make as much as $25 million in arbitration through 2024.

Yet it's doubtful that the Rockies would trade a franchise icon without getting at least one blue chip prospect in return. They might angle for 21-year-old third baseman Brett Baty, perhaps by sweetening the pot for New York by including, say, right-handed reliever Mychal Givens.

Not a bad deal, all things considered. But it would also put the Mets in a bind, for reasons that MLB.com's Anthony DiComo summarized well:

For while the Mets do indeed need a middle-of-the-order hitter, they don't necessarily have to add an infielder for the job while they have both McNeil and Davis in house.

The Mets would be better off upgrading in center field, where Brandon Nimmo is only a good hitter when he faces right-handed pitching. That's where George Springer would come in handy.

The Mets have an even greater need in their starting rotation, which could use another ace to go with two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom and All-Star Marcus Stroman. For this need, reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer would be perfect.

Both Springer and Bauer are on New York's radar, according to SNY's Andy Martino. At present, they can afford the projected $250 million splash it would take to sign both of them. But if the Mets were to deal for Arenado, it would likely be one or the other.

Granted, the Mets might seriously pursue an Arenado trade if they miss out on Springer and/or Bauer. But for now the Rockies might be better off trying to interest clubs with similarly deep pockets and a much stronger need for a third baseman.

That's a very short list, with perhaps only the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers truly fitting the bill. Yet neither is an ideal trading partner for the Rockies.

The Nationals, because their MLB-worst farm system has little to offer Colorado. The Dodgers, because Monfort doesn't want to move Arenado within the NL West, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.

Put another way, there isn't a truly perfect fit for Arenado on the winter trade market. So if the Mets don't bite, the Rockies' best play will be to hold on to him in hopes that he rebounds in 2021 and maybe even leads them back to contention.

A long shot? Maybe. But probably a shorter one than trading him this winter.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.